Saturday, August 12, 2006

A defeat for the west? Probably.



After hours of diplospeak, the UN eventually did what it does best. Thanks to France and the Arab League,it came up with a watered down, puerile ceasefire resolution designed to save and protect Hezbollah and please Iran. What's more, by doing do, the UN effectively dunged on its own prior resolution as it proved once again that not only isn't it part of the solution...it's definitely part of the problem.

The vote was unanimous, including the US..which reflects the widespread international criticism of the Bush Administration (especially from the Arabs and the EU) for stonewalling and the Bush Administration's realization that Ehud Olmert was unlikely
to get the job done in the time allowed him.

Here's what the boys at the UNSC came up with:

Instead of a `robust peacekeeping force' approved under Chapter 7 as in the first draft with the ability to use military force for imposing a ceasefire,disarming Hezbollah or creating a buffer zone in South Lebanon, the 15,000 mobilized Lebanese Army troops will move in to South Lebanon plus the 2,000 member UNFIL observer force with no authorty to do anything but act as observers and maybe make the odd cup of coffee for their Hezbollah pals.. I wonder...will the Lebanese troops give those uniforms to Hezbollah before or after they move in?

Another 15,000 UNFIL observers are to move in at a later date...but the IDF will be made to withdraw "in parallel' with the Lebanese forces as they come in. So the Israeli forces will be made to pull out before those new UNFIL observers get to South Lebanon..if they ever do.

There's absolutely no mechanism created to enforce an embargo on arms supplies from Iran and Syria or any other foreign source...so Hezbollah can be rearmed easily.

Since the idea of an effective `robust' UN force mentioned in the first draft was ditched, there's nobody to enforceme UN Security Council resolution 1559 to disarm Hezbollah...which means it won't happen.

While the preamble mentions the "unconditional release" of the two Israeli soldiers whose July 12 abduction started the war,there are no tangible steps or requirements that Hezbollah do so. Count on them being sent to Iran or Syria as soon as the IDF is safely out of the way.

While Israel is allowed to continue "defensive operations' while they're still in Lebanon, the cute language surrounding the "cessation of hostilities”"is loose enough for Hezbollah to continue fighting and claim it is conducting "legitimate national Lebanese resistance" rather than offensive operations. Nasrallah said as much when he stated that Hezbollah would continue `operations' untill the IDF leaves Lebanon.


The UN and the `International community' will rush billions of dollars worth of aid to Lebanon and rebuild the country's infrastructure with no conditions and very little oversight. Israel, with a third of the country beseiged, heavy damage to Safed, Haifa and the north of the country and over a million refugees, many of them homeless will foot the bill itself.

In other words, none of Israel's war aims in Lebanon were accomplished. Hezbollah has been severely damaged but has not been removed from South Lebanon and can claim `victory', the missile threat to Israel has not been removed, the two captured IDF soldiers were not recovered and the IDF's image as a deterrent suffered a blow.

What's more, Iran was able to divert attention form its nuclear weapons program and has enhanced prestige in the Muslim world for standing up to the Zionist/Crusaders.

Lebanon AKA Hezboolah has already agreed to these terms; the Israeli cabinet will vote on this Sunday and will probably be arm twisted into doing the same.

The real responsibility for the way this war was conducted and the disappointing results can mostly be placed at the feet of the ineffectual and indecisive leadership of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

He consistently overrode his military advisors and even his defense minister to conduct this war in a limited and slipshod fashion, refusing to allow the all out offensive the IDF begged for.

I doubt he will be in power much longer - which is the only positive thing to come out of all this. He came into power by accident, and now he's been revealed as the incompetant political hack he always was.

Ironically, now that they've been released to do the job that needed doing and were able to mount an offensive in force without the Olmert imposed handcuffs, the IDF seems to have done quite well.

They're in a race against time thanks to the ceasefire, but are proceeding until it is enforced on the ground – if and when that happens. It might not, at least until the IDF can show more tangible results.

The IDF has already succeeded in encircling Hezbollah’s 1,500-strong force in a large swathe stretching from the Litani River in the north, to Tyre in the southwest. They have been cut off from reinforcements and re-supply from the north by the IDF advances.

This is basically how Israel handled the PLO inthe 1982 Lebanon War. pushing the PLO forces out of South Lebanon up to Beirut and then trapping them in a siege.

This time, the Israeli troops are pushing Hezbollah into the Tyre enclave that also encompasses the Palestinian refugee camps of Rashidiya and Bourj al-Shamali, in order to surround them there. There won't be time for the IDF to take out Hezbollah bases in central and northern Lebanon (the Bek'aa Valley, for instance) unless the ceasefire breaks down. Those will have to be left for the Air Force to destroy, if possible.

Outside of the Tyre trap, the IDF with its new expanded forces has been advancing north from Israel’s northernmost town of Metulla towards the plain of Nabatea, north of the Litani River, taking the strategic Christian town of Marjayun en route.These units now control the village of Blat next to the Litani River – a vantage point for fire control of the Nabatean plain to the west, and Hasbaya to the east. The IDF has also captured Qantara and reached the southern bank of the Litani.

This sort of mobile war is what the IDF does best. Imagine what they could have done if they had been allowed to fight in force form the war's beginning.

Let's hope that either the Israeli cabinet grows a spine and rejects the UN resoluton as it stands, or that the IDF can somehow pull off a miracle and snatch victory from defeat before they run out of time.

Stay tuned...

12 comments:

Patty said...

I don't believe any thing the U.N. is cranking out will work.
I liken this to living in the inner city and the police telling you we will keep you safe don't worry. You sitting there knowing every neighbor around you is dangerous.
Sorry But as long as I can remeber the U.N. has been a worthless waste of money.
What happens when the IDF has to take out U.N. uniforms filled with hamas hezballah? If those cowards will hide behind babies they will damn sure hide in a uniform.

Anonymous said...

Well said, when did G_d take polls or check the polls to see if what H_ decided was the best way to get votes. H_ never did! Only when Irasel choice their way over H_s way did they lose.
We need, as Christians and Jews, to pray and ask H_m not the United Nations what we should do what direction we should travel.
The Muslims have one thing right you don't ask infidels for directions and neither should we or Israel. Does who do not worship our G_d and to us Christians H_s Son are infidels. We are NEVER to ask them directions, "Believers and Non believers are never to yoked together as one". We got a building full of infidels, the United Nations, trying to direction G_ds Chosen. Who do you think they worship or follow? They follow the god of money, oil and greed. What they want is what is best for them and them only.

Anonymous said...

Sorry spelling error in first try,

Well said, when did G_d take polls or check the polls to see if what H_ decided was the best way to get votes. H_ never did! Only when Irasel choice their way over H_s way did they lose.
We need, as Christians and Jews, to pray and ask H_m not the United Nations what we should do what direction we should travel.
The Muslims have one thing right you don't ask infidels for directions and neither should we or Israel. Those who do not worship our G_d and to us Christians H_s Son are infidels. We are NEVER to ask them directions, "Believers and Non believers are never to yoked together as one". We got a building full of infidels, the United Nations, trying to direction G_ds Chosen. Who do you think they worship or follow? They follow the god of money, oil and greed. What they want is what is best for them and them only.

Friendly said...

I am still learning the format please forgive me my errors. I do not want to be known as Anonymous. Call me Friendly.

Friendly to Israel's G_d, Hi_ people, Hi_ son and my president. As long as my President continues to back Israel, may that be always be and may our G_d give him the strength to stand up for Israel and stand against any and all who would bring harm Israel.

louielouie said...

there are certain things i agree with ff on regarding olmert.
the lone exception is how long he will be in office.
olmert will be in office when the next war begins. circa 2010. by that time 2006 will be a far distant memory. the israeli left and arab members of knesset are overjoyed with this un action. please note that during the fighting portion of this exercise that the hezzys were the spokespeople, now that the cease fire is being discussed it is now lebanon that is in the forefront. that is simply because the hezzys are not members of the un. another example of this is iran insisting that the cease fire be voted on in the un. this is the same un that they are getting ready to ignore regarding their nuke issue.
taqiyya.
all i can hope for is this will be the final straw showing the un as the impotent slug that it is.
nothing that has transpired since 12july2006 has changed my mind. not even the guidance of ff. israel should have redesigned the m/e map. and that 500 pound gorilla that ff keeps talking about. where does it sleep? i'll tell you were the 500 pound gorilla sleeps, it sleeps where the 1000 pound gorilla tells it to.
and not even ff is so naive to think israel is rebuilding on its' own. those US tax dollars are flowing as we type.
the battle ground has been shaped for the fight in 2010.

louielouie said...

i forgot.
what is most interesting to myself, is that while the muslims commit genocide in the sudan for decades, the un can come up with a cease fire in a matter of days when the people for whom the genocide is intended decide to fight back. and don't refer to the sudanese action a civil war. the muslims don't recognize those lines on an infidels map. their land is the land that they can kill for. the land that is not theirs yet simply means they have not yet killed the people inhabiting it. the same with the hezzys in what can only pass as what used to be called lebanon.
the un is in east timor, they are still in the balkans, now they are increasing the size of their deployment in south lebanon. just the way the un continues to spread out its' tenacles. and do nothing. i'll be the un even has a solution to the problem on the rio grande. you can count on it.

Friendly said...

For many years I would point out to my coworkers that every time all the way back to Uganda, where the man was a Muslim and beat his citizens to death with a hammer to save money, that were there is war, unrest, civil war and all bad things the Muslim extremists are always involved.

As our friend mention the Sudan, how about Nigeria, Uganda, and the Philippines, Eastern Europe since World War I, Malaysia, India, Russia, now more recently England and the USA. China is probably going to step on them real good, but there is another one they are trying to light up.

What we see is no only on a physical scale it is on a spiritual scale as well. The Jewish State and its citizens have a bond with Christian America. Know the difference our Christian Americans back Israel and Bush, don’t count of the others there would sleep with anyone for a good time Muslim or French, But our bond and relationship between Christian America and Israel goes further back than just good food and good buys. It is because we worship the same G_d, and the only True G_d of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob. The Muslims are worshiping a god alright the same one that lead the Germans, Italians and Japanese. He leads a lot of greedy infidel Americans. This same god is using many African Muslims to destroy those who do not believe as they do, as well in the Philippines etc. He is called the devil or satan by Christians. In truth they are the infidels and unbelievers who do not believe in the One True G_d. I know satan knows he is going to H - - - in the end and he is going to take all he can with him. These poor fools believe his angels of death who mislead and lead the Muslims as they lead Germany etc. into he_ _.

Ahmedinajad said...

PLEASE DISBAND THE UNITED NATIONS OR RELOCATE IT TO BEIJING AND REMOVE THE VETO POWERS SO A DEMOCRATIC UN EMERGES.
THE PASSING OF THE LEBANON RESOLUTION ABSOLVING ISRAEL OF OVEREACTING IS SICKENING.

DEAR SAUDI ARABIA, JORDAN, AND EGYPT I HOPE ALL YOUR KINGS QUEENS AND DESPOTIC RULERS ROT IN HELL.

ISLAM IS THE RELIGION OF ABRAHAM, MOSES, JESUS AND MUHAMMAD (PEACE BE UPON THEM ALL). WAKE UP FEAR THE GOD OF ISRAEL AND THE UNIVERSE. AS A WESTENER THE RATE OF ISLAMS INFLUENCE IS SKY ROCKETING ESPECIALLY IN EUROPE. SO STOP BURYING YOUR HEADS IN THE SAND (no pun intended) LIKE OSTRICHES.

Visit the following websites for further information on ISLAM.

http://www.islamicity.com/Mosque/Muhammad_Bible.HTM
(MUHAMMAD IN THE BIBLE)
http://bible.islamicweb.com/
http://news.sky.com/skynews/video/videoplayer/0,,31200-galloway_060806,00.html
http://ifamericansknew.com/
http://www.witness-pioneer.org/vil/Books/MB_BQS/default.htm (Quran and Science)
http://www.harunyahya.com/
http://www.barnabas.net/
http://www.answering-christianity.com/ac.htm
http://www.islamicity.com/
http://www.islamonline.net/english/index.shtml
http://www.islamalways.com/

Friendly said...

I always believed the snails the French eat had more backbone than the French who eat them. During World War II they aided the Nazis’ and the Japanese. They were a part of the murder and killing of many freedom fighters from countries trying to free French themselves.

All Politicians have much in common with the French snails, no backbone, wet and slimy most of the time and move very slowly every where they go except to a free dinner.

Friendly said...

Yes lets put together the United States together again for all men and women to live in peace, freedom and liberty using the Muslim Manifesto, Where is the part about peace? It lacks anything to do with peace, only the piece mentioned is the part concerning pieces of bodies, cities, lives etc.

“Islamic governments have never and will never be established through peaceful solutions and cooperative councils. They are
established as they [always] have been by pen and gun by word and bullet by tongue and teeth.”

PRESENTATION
To those champions who avowed the truth day and night......And wrote with their blood and sufferings these phrases...
The confrontation that we are calling for with the apostateregimes does not know Socratic debates Platonic ideals..., nor Aristotelian diplomacy. But it knows the dialogue of bullets, the ideals of assassination, bombing, and destruction, and the diplomacy of the cannon and machine-gun.
Islamic governments have never and will never be established through peaceful solutions and cooperative councils.

They are
established as they [always] have been by pen and gun by word and bullet by tongue and teeth.

Your own words condem you and your movement.

Freedom Fighter said...

Er, `Ahmedinejad' (at least spell your hero's name correctly, OK?)I agree with you about the UN. It serves no purpose and I would love tosee all of that prime NY real estate put to better use.

But let's not talk about `democracy' shall we? What you really want is a Jew free UN..which is hardly `democratic'. But then neither is Iran, eh?

I also have to admit that I don't particularly care what happens to the rulers you mentioned.

Now Islam MAY be the religion of Mohammed, but you betray a real bias and ignorance when you call it the religion of Abraham, Moses and Jesus.

If it was, then why would Muslims be spending so much energy trying to murder Christians and Jews? And why would the Qu'ran talk repeatedly about how they're all going to be burning in Muslim hell after the Muslims wipe them out?

There is also the supreme arrogance that you and many other Muslims demonstrate by not only assumng that you are in possesion of G-d 3.0 but insisting that everyone else must acknowledge it..by whatever means necessary.

And don't pull the ol' taqiya on me, my brother and spout off a few lines of tolerance in the Qu'ran. I've read it, and the Hadiths and we're both aware of the Islamic Doctrine of Abrogation which says that the later, more violent jihadi verses take precedence over the earlier kumbaya stuff.

In its basic text, the Qu'ran resembles nothing so much as Mein Kamf..a big bestseller in Dar Islam, as we both know.

The G-d of Abraham had a few things to say about the progenitor of Islam, Ishmael..He said that Ishmael and his descendents would be wild and crazed and their hand would be against every man.

You know what,`Ahmedinejad' - if Islam is as great as you say and as democratic and peaceful as yousay, then you need to give others the space to worship as they please.

But that's not really what its about, now is it?

Friendly said...

Freedomfighter,

What more could a person say, you said it all wonderfully.

But, you might have to use those colorful cards they use in Nursey School when you talk about peace to a Muslim Extremist. I am not sure they would be able to form a picture it in their minds without some kind of aid. There probably is no word or illustration in their text books to express the term peace, unless it relates to a piece of some infidels body.