Friday, August 11, 2006

Israel to launch expanded assault in Lebanon

The Israeli government has now green lighted that long delayed expanded offensive against Hezbollah.

Olmert and Israel's security cabinet finally pulled the trigger based on what's coming out of the UN ceasefire draft - and based on severe criticism on the home front.

That last bit is significant, for anyone familiar with Israel. The general rule is that Israel is a particularly vibrant democracy, the vast majority of Israelis tend to mix it up and enjoy a healthy scrap politically, and criticism of the government is almost a national sport...unless there's a war, during which Israelis tend to patch up their differences and support the government.

Though that sentiment was certainly there in the beginning of this war, the constant missteps and hesitation of the Olmert government has resulted in a severe lack of confidence. Israelis are not used to seeing wars conducted half way, and they are used to having decisive governments in a crisis. The latest move, a 48 hour delay in a ground offensive after the troops had already been put in place `to give diplomacy time to work' made of number of Israelis both inside and outside of the IDF livid, with the very real concern for troop morale, giving Hezbollah time to rest and regroup and the dangers of turning the IDF from an army on the offensive into an army of targets.

I very much doubt that Olmert will remain in power too long after the war ends.

The official reason given for the offensive (and by the way, why make `announcements' of an offensive to let Hezbollah know what's coming?)was the progress on what has become an increasingly watered down UN Resolution, thanks to the Arab League, Hezbollah AKA the Lebanese Government, and the French.

After Hezbollah forced the Lebanese government to veto the expanded international force to support the Lebanese army in disarming Hezbollah and pushing it out of the south, one of the key provisions of the original draft has been neutered. Instead, the Lebanese army would deploy to the South and be expected to do what they have been unable to do beforehand...put a leash on Hezbollah!

There is also now nothing in the new draft about disarming Hezbollah, the proposed arms embargo to anyone but the Lebanese government, or anything about the return of the kidnapped Israeli soldiers.

Something may very well eventually get through the morass of the UN, but I don't see it having much in the way of a practical effect.

So the IDF will, hopefully, finally get to do what needs to be done.

Stay tuned...

3 comments:

louielouie said...

Olmert and Israel's security cabinet finally pulled the trigger based on what's coming out of the UN ceasefire draft - and based on severe criticism on the home front.

that must mean olmert doesn't read joshuapundit.......shame.

the USA will through israel under a bus. just as soon as condi & shrub can find one.
they will do this to get unanimous international support in the upcoming fiasco-in-planning with iran.
plagerism starts here:
good luck with that.
plagerism stops here:
i think what finally happened is the saudi prince called his lap dog in the oval office an told him what to do.

as for me i hope olmert tells bush and anyone else to pound sand.

louielouie said...

throw
throw
throw
throw
throw

Rosey said...

Olhmert's a wuss. He's history. Bring back Netanyahu.