Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Livni Wins Kadima Primary...Barely


Israel's foreign minister Tzipi Livni just barely managed to edge out ex-defense minister Shaul Mofaz in the Kadima primary to see who has the chance of succedding the `retiring ' Ehud Olmert as Israel's prime minister.Livni won Wednesday's Kadima primary by 431 votes, winning 43.1 percent (16,936 votes) while Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz won 42% (16,535 votes).

I refer to it as a chance because it's by no means certain that Livni will be able to form a government..in which case the country goes to general elections.

I don't trust Tzipi Livni as far as I can throw her..probably less. She was part of the whole circus with Olmert, and while sh emay not have participated in Olmert's corrupt enterprises she's been on the frontlines of negotiating away Israel's security..an dI doubt if being in the top spot will change her.

She will have to try and form a coalition governt, which means at least 61 seats in the Knesset. The key is the Labor Party. Its leader Ehud Barak detests Livni on a personal and visceral level, an dit remains to beseen whether he hates Livni or Likud leader Bibi Netanyahu more. I've heard several strong rumors of a deal between Barak and Netanyahu for a national unity government, also known in America as a shotgun wedding.

We'll see what develops.




4 comments:

louielouie said...

i'm gonna make two comments and then run like the wind cause ff will probably proceed with a verbal smackdown i don't care to stick around for.
while listing to the preliminary polling on iba news yesterday evening i was struck by two comments made by leah stern(sp), their political correspondent. she said in a recent poll, that israelis view the economy as their top concern. with security a distant second.
WTH????????????????????
that's like daniel being concerned the lion is going to block the sunlight while he works on his tan.
she went on to say that no one in the knesset wants to go to gerneral elections. so they will all try their best to form a gov't.
WTH?????????????????
this is like saying to the people of israel, we are f*cked up, you know it, we know it, but we're gonna keep you out of this by forming a gov't so you can't vote us out of office so we can enjoy you in the bent over position just a little while longer.
LL is outta here............

B.Poster said...

Ultimately it may not really matter what develops. Iran is much closer to an atomic bomb than is generally known in the main stream media. Israeli and American intellegence agencies are well aware of this. The Americans and the Western Europeans, specifically the Americans who are arguably Iran's main target may be under the misguided delusion that they can negotiate this problem away ans, as such, wish not to alarm the uninformed masses. This is why we get the ridiculous notion that Iran is ten to fifteen years away from a nuclear weapon by American intellegence agencies. These people would have to be either: 1.) very, very stupid, 2.)so blinded by ideology that they cannot see the truth, or 3.)fully cognizant of how big a problem this really is and are in denial hoping they can negotiate the problem away.

As it is, Iran will probably have a nuclear weapon by early 2009. By the middle of 2009 they should have figured how to combine a nuclear weapon with ICBM technology. In other words, Iran will be able to hit any spot on earth with a limited number of nuclear war heads by the end of 2009. By the beginning of 2010 the Iranians shold be able to mass produce nukes on a level that Russia or America can. By the end of 2010 Iran should have an arsenal of 250 to 1,000 nuclear war heads mounted on ICBMs that are capable of hitting any target on earth.

This will not happen though. Israel will not let this happen. They will need to act before the end of 2008, however, they may have a very small window to act in 2009 for a couple of months. Ultimately it will not matter who the Israeli prime minister is nor will the American political landscape matter. Israel must take military action before Iran goes nuclear. This will happen in early 2009. Israel will obliterate Iran's nuclear program and the Aemricans and Western Europeans will quitely thank them for doing it, however, the Americans better be alert. The Russians will not take kindly to having the investment in Iran literally go up in flames. Russia will be very angry and America is generally not as well defended as Israel is. The Russians will likely seek retalation against the Americans.

America will be blamed no matter what. Right now America is not as well defended as Israel is. As such, it is a much easier target to attack than Israel would be. The sensible things for America to do would be to assist Israel in taking out Iran's nuclear weapons program and to prepare for the inevitable Iranian attack on the American homeland. Iran will likely be assisted by Russia. If we prepare well, we may be able to actually prevent this attack from happening. As stated, this would be the sensibel course of action for America's leaders. Unfortunately Aemrica is sorely lacking in sensible leadership. These are interesting times indeed. God help us all!!

Freedom Fighter said...

Hi Louie,
No smackdown...just keep in mind that as in America, much of the press in Israel is Leftard and therefore suicidal.

And that much of the press has about as much relation to the actual opinions of everyday Israelis as the dinosaur media does here.

That said, Ms. Stern is undoubtedly correct that a great many of the denizens of the Knesset do not want to go to elections...because they'd be tossed out of office on their collective keisters.

This is particularly true of Labor, the Pensioners and Kadima. It remains to be seen if Livni can form a government out of these elements. I hope not.

Hi Poster,
How are you?

I wouldn't worry about the Russians so much if I were you. A strong line against them will cause them to blink every time, and they are much more vulnerable on every front than the US.

Case in point - our stock market drops 500 points and we wring our hands and weep about it. Theirs had to shut down for two days, and is still shaky.

Regards,
ff

B.Poster said...

FF,

I'm fine. Thanks for asking. The area where I live was hit very hard by Ike. Thankfully we and all of our neighbors are okay. That is the most mportant thing.

Thanks for the reply to my post. You may be right. I could be over stating the threat posed by Russia. Nevertheless I don't think this is something that should be ignored. I don't think you are, however, most in the media and many it seems in the government seem to have a blind spot with regards to Russia.

I think you are correct that Russia has some vunerablities. The world's three major powers are Russia, China, and the United states. All three of them have strengths as well as vunerablities.

Russia's biggest long range problem seems to be their population implosion. Also, they could be vunerable to a crash in the price of oil. It seems unlikely that this could be done by the US alone. Maybe the US working in concert with ohter oil porducers could get this done. Also, the Russian leadership has become puffed up with pride. As such, they will likely make mistakes. If we are alert, we can capitalize on these inevitable mistakes that these arrogannt Russians will make.

I rememver reading about the Russian stock market. I think I see where you are coming from. The US market lost 500 popints like you say and then gains 410 points. Why did it gain 410 points? Largely becuase the government may be about to bail out AIG and others!! I think I could build a case that institutional investors are stupid!! Such an announcement by US government officials should have caused the marketst to fall through the floor and should have caused people to rethink their confidnece in a governemnt that would be stupid enough to bail out these entities. To do so would be getting off the topic pf the post.