My predictions are essentially the same ones I discussed in the last Real Banana with Weekend Monkey: McCain wins, 286 electoral votes to 252.
As far as the battleground/states listed as toss ups go, I believe McCain will take Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, Arizona and possibly Virginia.
Obama will take Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico and possibly Virginia..although I'm calling Virginia for McCain. If Obama does manage to eke out a win in Virginia, McCain will win it 273-265, which is what Monkey predicted.
The Dems will pick up six senate seats max and 15-20 seats in the House.
This radically disagrees with almost all of the pollsters, although the better ones (Rasmussen, IBD/Tipp, Battleground) have left themselves sufficient wiggle room.I'm basing this prediction on several factors. First, where the candidates have been concentrating their public appearances, which are very different than the polls woul dindicate. Second, my look at various internals of the polls, where are vastly oversampling Democrats. In some cases ( Zogby, for instance) the pollsters, who are hired by the dinosaur media for the most part are contractually obligated to oversample Democrats. And last, what my gut tells me about the movement I've observed on the ground.
By this time tomorrow, I'll either be hailed or crucified. Ultimately, what happens today is in G-d's hands, and I'm fine with it.
3 comments:
I work in the financial district in Manhattan. There is a Kosher Deli on the corner where I go for lunch. Today, I could not help overhearing one of the guys behind the counter talking to a bunch of the customers, all of them very Jewish, and saying "All the way for McCain." There was a serious look in their eyes as they looked at each other.
I hope this belief is shared amongst all of the Jewish community, who normally vote for the democratic party. Hopefully, not this time.
From your mouth to G-d's ears, Timbers.
BTW, the absentee American vote in Israel went 70-30% for McCain.
You might enjoy reading this..it ran in Israel Insider as well as a couple of other places.
Regards,
ff
What happens is in God's hands. I could not have said this better myself!! I'm fine with whatever God's will is.
It's interesting taht 70% of the American vote in Israel went for McCain. It appears the Israelis are about to kick out Olmert and his corrupt gang. From the best I can tell, they are about to put in good leadership. It seems as though Israel's long nightmare is about to be over. Unfortunately for Aemrica our nightmare may be about to begin, should Obama win.
If there is a silver lining, the nightmare of Obama with a Democrat controlled Congress will likely only last two years. I hope I'm wrong of course, but Obama's policies and those of the Democrats are likely to fail and fail miserably. If they fail, then America fails. I do not want Aemrica to fail. Now, given how likely the policies of the Democrats are to fail, the voting public will be fed up with all things Democrat and given the extreme corruption and illegal activities of team Obama he will likely be impeached before he can finish his first term in office. The Republicans or a third party will likely gain control of Congress during the next election cycle.
Should Obama win I'm not going to crucify you. It will simply mean you were wrong. Everyone is wrong sometimes. It happens to the best of us.
If McCain is to pull this out, he will have to overcome the massive voter fraud being committed by groups like ACORN and other Obama surrogates. Given that the only resistance team McCain has raised to this blatant cheating has been the occasional wimper, I'm at a loss to figure out how his team expects to do this.
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