Monday, July 09, 2012

An Indication Of Things To Come? Majority of Americans Say Obama Changed The Country For The Worse

A new Hill poll of likely voters came up with some interesting figures that bear looking at.

A new poll for The Hill found 56 percent of likely voters believe Obama’s first term has transformed the nation in a negative way, compared to 35 percent who believe the country has changed for the better under his leadership.

The results signal broad voter unease with the direction the nation has taken under Obama’s leadership and present a major challenge for the incumbent Democrat as he seeks reelection this fall.

Conducted for The Hill by Pulse Opinion Research, the poll comes in the wake of last month’s Supreme Court decision that upheld the primary elements of Obama’s signature healthcare legislation.

About 1 in 5 Democrats feel Obama has changed the country for the worse, and the lines were sharply drawn racially as well, with only 29 percent of whites saying Obama has changed the country for the better compared to 92 percent of blacks.

The poll was conducted with a sampling of 1,000 likely voters with a 3% margin of error.

Also released today was a CNN/ORC poll ( heavily weighted towards Democrats, of course) that nevertheless found that 53% of the adults surveyed approved of the contempt vote against Eric Holder.

I see both of these polls as highly indicative that the weight of the electorate may be shifting against President Obama, and also explain something I've mentioned before about his approval ratings, currently averaging at 47% according to Real Clear Politics.

I've always felt like President Obama's racial background was worth at least 10% when it came to his approval ratings. There are a lot of people who hesitate to respond honestly to even an anonymous pollster when asked if they 'approve' of President Obama or find him 'likeable' for fear of appearing racist.

On the other hand, ask people if President Obama has changed the country for the better, or a question like whether the country is headed in the right direction or on the wrong track and I think you get a much more honest response...because it's a more neutral,less personalized question.

I think a lot of the ROmney vs. Obama polls are lagging behind because of this factor.

The Holder poll is another example of this at work. If a majority of the country were pro-Obama, they'd be far more likely to characterize the contempt vote as 'partisan political games', 'racist' or a 'witch-hunt,' which is how the media and the Obama campaign are painting it.

What this tells me is that at present, there's an underground swell away from the president's re-election as people start paying more attention to the campaign.

Of course, this can change. But that's where I see it at present and barring better economic news, I don't see the direction changing.

Anything's possible, but it's difficult to see an incumbent president winning when 56% of the American people say he's changed America for the worse and over 61% say the country's on the wrong track.

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