Monday, October 27, 2014
Forum: Will The Republicans Take The Senate And What Will That Mean?
Every week on Monday morning , the Council and our invited guests weigh in at the Watcher's Forum, short takes on a major issue of the day, the culture, or daily living. This week's question:
Will The Republicans Take The Senate And What Will That Mean?
The Independent Sentinel: I think they will take the Senate - barely.
It means getting rid of Harry Reid though he promises to still be around. Republicans can stop the judicial appointments.
If Barack Obama gives amnesty of any kind to millions of people, I'd like to see the Senate move for impeachment.
I don't have a lot of faith that they'll do anything. They'll say they can't do anything until they win the presidency which they won't win at this rate.
GrEaT sAtAn"S gIrLfRiEnD : Republicans need six seats to regain control of the Senate chamber.
And they're going to get them. GOP will end up with a 53 over 47 majority. Even if the Nov election yields two runoffs in GA and or LA - the GOP will win them.
Three Democratic-held states already appear to be Republican pick ups column: Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. If the GOP can hang on to Georgia and Kentucky, they would need to pick up just three more to win the majority. And there are a few different pathways that get them there.
Republicans avoided the selection of flawed, stumble-prone candidates. This has boosted Republicans’ prospects in several races -- for now.
One of the most recent examples came in Alaska last week, when Republicans nominated Dan Sullivan to take on Democratic Sen. Mark Begich. Sullivan is leading by 4.6 percentage points in the RCP average in a very Red state.
In Colorado, Republican Rep. Cory Gardner is consistently leading Democrat incumbent Sen. Mark Udall despite months of negative ads targeting him. And in Iowa, Another example of the same dynamic comes in Iowa, where Joni Ernst continues to hold a small 2 point lead over Democrat Bruce Braley.
Republicans’ best hopes rest in states Mitt Romney won in 2012: Arkansas, North Carolina, Alaska and Louisiana.
Races in the first two are virtually tied. In Louisiana, Mary Landrieu leads the Republican field by several points, but she falls behind Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy by one point in December runoff matchups (the likely scenario if no one clears the 50 percent mark on Nov. 4). Both Landrieu and Mark Pryor in Arkansas have long-standing, well-respected legacies in their states (both have featured their popular fathers in ads)but in Arkansas Tom Cotton is leading Pryor by an RCP average of 5 points and Landrieu is likely to fall a victim to the probably GOP nominee, Bill Cassidy.
The same is true in Georgia, where there's also a three way race going on between Michelle Nunn, Republican David Perdue and Libertarian Amanda Swafford, whose currently averaging about 3% of the vote. While the race is tied now,Nunn's unlikelky to get the 51% she needs to win and since most of the Libertarian vote is coming from people who would likely vote Republican otherwise, a run off where Swafford would be eliminated favors Perdue.
Current events could also shape the landscape. Some Democrats in tough re-elections have voiced significant concern about the prospect of 44 using executive action to curb deportations, thus bypassing Congress. Foreign policy, with the situations in Iraq, Gaza and elsewhere in the Middle East, could also play a role in some races where a pro-defense candidate is on the ticket or in states with a strong military presence.
The Glittering Eye :Although I have been predicting that Democrats will hold the Senate for the better part of the last year, I now doubt that will be the outcome. As things look today after the elections a week from Tuesday Republicans are likely to hold 49 seats outright. Two seats are toss-ups (Colorado and Kansas) and are likely to go into run-offs (Georgia and Louisiana). When the dust has settled the Republicans will take an additional two seats, Colorado and Louisiana which will give them control of the Senate.
The more interesting question is what they'll do with control of the Congress and on that subject I have no idea. I can say what I think they should do. I think the new Congressional leadership should immediately request a meeting with the president. If the president rejects the overture, they'll have their answer. If he accepts, they should extend an olive branch and present a list of bills, supported by the new caucus and substantial public opinion, that he should be able to agree to as well. If he rebuffs them, again, they'll have their answer. If he's agreeable there's a chance for some progress. I do not expect the president to be a gracious loser.
JoshuaPundit: There's no question that in terms of how it looks right now, the map favors Republicans. I think we can pretty much concede them taking West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota and Arkansas, all states where President Barack Hussein Obama is tremendously unpopular I also expect them to take Alaska and Iowa, As far as the actual end results go there are two factors that can't be underestimated; rampant voter fraud and 'Libertarian' or 'Independent' third party candidates funded by Democrats and designed to siphon off just enough votes to allow the Democrat to squeeze through.
There are currently third party candidates of this type in Louisiana, Georgia, South Dakota, and North Carolina, and with the exception of Larry Pressler in South Dakota, they all are sopping up between 3 and 5% of the vote. We all saw this tactic used in the Virginia governor's race and enough people who would ordinarily vote Republican were bamboozled by it to hand a win to Democrat Terry McAuliffe.One would hope many of them would have learned there lesson by now, but apparently not, and it could very well cost the GOP Kay Hagen's seat in North Carolina,although I think if Georgia and Louisiana go to run off elections, this tactic by itself will probably not be enough to put Mary Landrieu back in the Senate and give Michelle Nunn a win in Georgia.
The other consideration is voter fraud. Expect that to occur in any close election where there are large amounts of illegal aliens or blacks in an urban setting, especially where voter ID laws have been stalled with suits by the Obama Administration's Justice Department.Colorado, for instance, is essentially voter fraud heaven with mailed ballots to everyone, major obstacles to getting anyone off the rolls, no ID checks and door to door ACORN style 'ballot harvesters', Cory Gardner is ahead in the polls and this should be a GOP pickup, but unless he wins by a large enough majority don't be surprised if Mark Udall triumphs in a very smelly travesty of an election.
North Carolina is another state where I expect blatant voter fraud to be an issue. I don't expect it in Alaska, South Dakota or Iowa, simply because there aren't that many black or Latino residents and these states are lacking the sort of urban enclaves you find in many Blue states where voter fraud is so endemic.
I expect Kansas and Kentucky to be GOP holds simply because Mitch McConnell has the clout to bring in enough resources to ensure his own survival and will likely do the same for Pat Roberts, an old friend and political soul mate of of long standing.
Assuming I'm right about all this, the numbers work out to 51-48 if the GOP loses Kansas but holds Kentucky and Georgia and the Dems hold North Carolina, New Hampshire and Colorado.If the GOP manages to take Colorado and hold Kansas, 53-47.
As to what it means? Look for the president and the lame duck congress to use the time between Election day and January 22nd to totally poison the waters before the new senate takes over. I expect the president to outrage the incoming congress and the nation with (a) a mass amnesty for illegal aliens by executive order and (b) a new, radical Attorney General, (most likely Thomas Perez) to be shoved through by Reid and the lame duck senate using the nuclear option, along with any other appointments and nonsense they feel can push through. I would not even be surprised to see one or two Supreme Court Justices suddenly 'resign' under blackmail by the White House to allow this president to pack the court with radical leftists.
If we put up with it, the shame is ours.
2008 Democrat Presidential Candidate and political guru and handicapper Weekend Monkey: First off, I wanna protest I wasn't paid extra for this wisdom..talk about blackmail, geez!
I made some assessments in my last column based on what was up at that time, along with a hoo-miliating revelation or two about my tenure with Elizabeth Warren,yadda yadda. Here are some updates.
I still see Kansas as tighter than a baboon's butt and too close to call, and ditto on New Hampshire. No calls in either race, although my gut tells me Shaheen will manage to win in New Hampshire. Kansas could end up being a spoiler but I'm waiting to see what happens a little close to the election before I post odds. I still call North Carolina for Kay Hagen as a Democrat hold, 3 to 1 with 6 to 3 on Tillis to win. I see Colorado as a big surprise, 2-1 for Mark Udall once the votes are counted our way, y'know. I'll take your money on Gardner at 3-1 since he's the fave, and remember, three points for the vig,no exceptions.
I also wouldn't be surprised to see my Democrats hold Louisiana . Weird stuff happens in NOLA, La' Charles and even Baton Rouge, and Landrieu knows how to make that kind of stuff happen.Again, no call, but Landrieu knows that she has to avoid a runoff against Cassidy to win.
I figure the repugs take Arkansas, West Virginia, Montana, Alaska and Iowa.They'll hold Kentucky too, and Georgia if it goes to run off, but I have a feeling it might not based on what my Democrats can do with turnout in Atlanta. The losertarian will take away rethug votes and if a lotta votes come in from Atlanta, wink wink, Nunn might squeeze through.2 gets you 3 on Nunn.
If my Democrats take Colorado, Georgia, Kansas and Louisiana they hold the senate. Even if they lose one of them, it's a split senate which means they win anyways with lotsa laughs from Vice Prez Giggles.If the Repugs take both Georgia and Louisiana, it's still a 51-49 senate, and we all know the Repugs don't vote in a bloc.
So it all means nada, zero, zilch for two years with a whole bunch of infighting between the Bamster, the Repugs and my Democrats to see who can sling poop the fastest and climb a little higher up the tree. Ain't politics fun?!?.
Well, there you have it!
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