Monday, June 08, 2015
Forum: What Will Be The End Result Of The Iran Nuclear Deal?
Every week on Monday morning , the Council and our invited guests weigh in at the Watcher's Forum, short takes on a major issue of the day, the culture, or daily living. This week's question: What Will Be The End Result Of The Iran Nuclear Deal?
The Independent Sentinel : Iran will continue to work on nuclear weaponry and intercontinental ballistic missiles during the term of the faux deal. They will threaten and menace their neighbors, the U.S. and anyone who travels through the Straits of Hormuz throughout the ten year period.
When the waiting period ends, they will be a nuclear state and we will all be afraid. A nuclear arms race will begin in the Middle East if the deal goes through. ISIS will continue to grow and they want nuclear weapons also.
Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has already said Iran is anxious to start selling nuclear material and they have allied with some seriously bad players - Syria, Russia, and North Korea to name three.
Obama is a traitor for promoting this deal. We won't have any sanctions to fall back on.
This is a serious mess for the next president.
Don Surber : IntraMuslim Nuclear War.
The Noisy Room : Iran will get nukes... Obama will ensure it. After the deal is done, a full-blown nuclear arms race will erupt in the Middle East. Iran will profit financially and militarily. They will use their military strength with nukes as a form of extortion to get what they want across the
They will further ally with Russia, China and North Korea militarily. Eventually, they will use nukes against their enemies in the Middle East, Israel and the United States. They will use the Axis of Evil (Iran, Russia and China) as cover and World War III will kick into high gear. Iran will close off the Straits of Hormuz and oil prices will skyrocket as war spreads. Iran will also seize geographic territory as they spread their military might further. War, death and apocalyptic scenarios will ensue to usher in the 12th Imam.
JoshuaPundit : In the end, I don't think it matters.
The Iranians have consistently accused the Obama team of misrepresenting what was agreed to since November of 2013, so there are still huge gaps between what Iran and the P5+1 see as the so called interim agreement. Virtually nothing we were told by John Kerry back in 2013 has proven to be true, and whenever the Iranians have challenged Obama's team on it, the result has been to either back down to the Ayatollah's demands or extend the deadline for more talks, with a handsome cash bonus to the Iranian regime for the privilege of their presence.Actually it's been revealed that Iran's nuclear stockpile has actually grown during the talks by 20%! Aside from that,all that's been achieved is that Iran got billions in badly needed economic relief and a year and a half of time to continue working on its missiles and its nuclear weapons program.Even the verification we were promised to sell this is a farce. The Iranians have made it clear that they won't allow snap IAEA inspections or any inspections at all of military sites like Parchin or Fordow.
Any deal that gets made will be toothless. whether it goes through congress or this president pushes it through the UN. And even if there is no deal, the sanctions regime is over anyway. Countries and businesses are lining up to do business with Iran.
An American military response is out as well. President Obama needs the Iranians to do the dirty work on the ground in Iraq to clean up the problem he caused by creating ISIS. And his Iranian-born consigliere Valerie Jarrett wouldn't allow it, nor would I trust a feral incompetent like our president to carry it out properly as C in C.
So that leaves several options for the future. The Israelis, to whom this is an existential matter may decide to take matters into their own hands, with or without help from the Saudis and the Emirates, whom have been beefing up their military after realizing what sort of man is in the White House. There are reports out there that Israeli PM Netanyahu wanted to do this in 2010, but that former Mossad chief Meir Dagan and former IDF chief of staff Gabi Ashkenazi, whom are associated with Israel's Labor Party, both refused to cooperate and that no less than former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leaked intel on a coming attack to the Iranians. But Israel now has a different government and very different people in those positions instead of Dagan and Ashkenazi.
Of course, a strike by Israel on Iran's nuclear facilitates will give Barack Obama what he's wanted from Day One, an excuse to end the American/Israeli relationship to the degree he's able to, at least while he's president. The Israeli may very well decide that it's worth it at this point.
A second scenario involves ISIS. Take away our air support for the Shi'ites and ISIS is a legitimate check to Iran's ambitions. Add an ittifaaqiyya (alliance) between ISIS,the Emirates and the Saudis (not at all implausible) and then throw the KSA's attack helicopters and F-22s into the mix, the playing field gets even more even. The Saudis even have their own missiles. That carnage could stalemate like the Iraq/Iran War in the1980's and go on for years.
If Iran does actually strike the U.S. , they will almost certainly use one of their terrorist proxies to try to mask their own involvement. If that occurs, and I certainly hope it doesn't, the people of the United States whom voted Barack Hussein Obama into office have no one to blame but themselves.
Laura Rambeau Lee, Right Reason: As the June 30th deadline approaches the U. S. has lost any economic leverage by lifting sanctions, making Iran stronger and more emboldened. The U. S. continues to give concessions throughout these negotiations while Iran gives nothing. Nothing is going to change Iran’s core ideology. They remain state sponsors of terrorism and intent on the destruction of Israel. Iran is playing a long game while President Obama is desperate for a nuclear treaty before the end of his term. I don’t believe any treaty coming out of the Obama administration will be strong enough in limiting Iran’s nuclear ambitions to be ratified by the Senate.
The Glittering Eye : I think the Iranians are going to do whatever it is that they're going to do regardless of agreements. I think the idea that the regime can be expected to honor an agreement or that they won't have undeclared nuclear development is laughable.
Ask Marion : Just a day after Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program in exchange for lighter economic sanctions, the difference in the moods on the streets of Tehran and Jerusalem couldn't have been starker. The temporary deal with the P5 +1 countries will give Iran access to billions in revenues as the United States, Great Britain, China, Russia, France and Germany suspend their sanctions on various items, including gold and petrochemical exports. Good idea? Probably not, if the end game is to stop enrichment! Netanyahu adamantly distrusts Iran, and rightly so, and decried the agreement as a "historic mistake" after it was announced.
We are dealing with people who are completely untrustworthy. This is a regime that murders their own people, creates mayhem and chaos throughout the middle east, throughout the whole world, and is the largest sponsor of terrorism.
This just opens the door wider for the possibility of nuclear war in the middle east, if not WWIII.
David Gerstman: If a deal is made it will be a disaster. President Obama has shown no inclination to hold Iran to any obligation. When Iran, for example, used a forbidden advanced centrifuge during the course of the Joint Plan of Action, the Obama administration didn't call it a violation. It called it a mistake. To add insult to injury Obama and his administration then insisted that Iran obeyed the terms of the Joint Plan of Action and this proved the deal's critics wrong. (There were other violations. This was the clearest.)
There is so much else wrong with this deal. Not the least of which is the freeing up of billions that will allow Iran to increase the financing its terrorist proxies.
However there is one person who may yet save Obama from making this deal, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.There is nothing I've seen that suggests that he's interested in a deal. The deal announced in Lausanne wasn't a deal (and it was two days past the deadline) it was an agreement to keep negotiating. Khamenei loves the "limited, targeted" billions in sanctions relief that he's receiving. But he still hates America. I believe that he views a deal with the Great Satan is against his religion. I think that there won't be a deal on June 30 or on January 20, 2017. Obama's too invested to admit failure. So we'll continue to have a muddled series of negotiations over the next two years. There will be announcements of progress, but they will always be less than a full agreement.Because Khamenei doesn't want one.
Wolf Howling : Iran's theocracy sees their primary purpose as being the export of their bastardized version of Khomeinist T'welver Islam around the world. To that end, they are supporting terrorism and chaos world-wide, from South America to Africa to the Middle East. Soon, Iran will likely control Syria, Iraq and Yemen to the same extent that they control Lebanon and to the same degree that they influence Hamas in Gaza. Iran's theocracy have shown over the past thirty five years that they are implacable enemies of the West, in particular the U.S. and Israel, and that they are quite willing to wade through rivers of blood to achieve their goals.
Pretending that giving Iran a nuclear arsenal will moderate their theocracy is sheer suicidal fantasy. War with this regime, as they reach the brink of a nuclear arsenal, is inevitable. The only question is whether we engage in it sooner, when we can be assured of victory at a relatively nominal cost, or whether that war, after Obama's suicidal proposed nuclear deal, comes fifteen to thirty years down the road, when Iran has had the opportunity to greatly increase it's military capability and has a significant nuclear arsenal. I see little difference between the triumphalism, expansionism and amorality of Iran's theocracy today and the triumphalism, expansionism and amorality of Hitler's Third Reich circa 1937 but for one critical difference. Iran's theocracy does not operate according to the Western standards of rationality -- something that Obama and virtually the entire left seem unable to grasp. The concept of Mutually Assured Destruction is not a defense against Iran's use of nuclear weapons, it is an inducement. Theirs is a regime more dangerous than Hitler's.
By waiting until Germany had rearmed, war against Hitler cost tens of millions of lives and ruined the economy of Western Europe for decades afterwards. And of course, Germany only had conventional weapons at its disposal. A nuclear armed Iran poses an existential threat to every country, including America, within range of its ballistic missiles. And that does not even begin to consider the threat to the U.S. and the entire world from nuclear proliferation throughout the deeply unstable Middle East. All it would take would be one EMP to devastate half the United States. All it would take would be three or four dirty bombs to shut down our major ports and gut our economy.
We can only hope that Congress stops this insanity before Obama inks a deal, and then that the next President has the stones to begin dealing with Iran's theocracy. The window for doing that at minimal cost in blood and gold is closing fast, even if Obama's suicidal deal is not inked.
Well, there you have it!
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