Sunday, March 13, 2016
Forum: What's Your Prediction For The Mar. 15th Primaries?
Every week on Monday morning , the Council and our invited guests weigh in at the Watcher's Forum, short takes on a major issue of the day, the culture, or daily living. This week's question: What's Your Prediction For The Mar. 15th Primaries?
JoshuaPundit : Anything can change in two days, but here's how I see it.
Florida : Hillary should win decisively here over Bernie Sanders. On the GOP side, Donald Trump should win a decisive victory. The Cuban community will come out for Marco Rubio but it will not be enough by any means, and the panhandle and northern part of the state will go solidly for Trump. This is a closed primary and winner take all, so Trump and Mrs. Clinton will get all the delegates, 99 for Trump, 246 for Clinton.
Illinois: The recent disruptions by the Angry Left have helped Trump here. I see him beating Cruz and Kasich and getting a lot of crossover votes in an open primary. Illinois distributes its delegates proportionally, so I see Trump getting a minimum of half of Illinois's 69 delegates and perhaps more.
On the Democrat side, Mrs. Clinton will win, but not by nearly as much as the polls predict. She'll still probably get most of the 182 delegates.
Missouri: This is an open primary where there's been little polling and anything could happen. On the Democrat side, I think black voters will swing the state towards Hillary. The state is winner take all, so she'll end up with its 84 delegates.
Trump will get a lot of crossover votes and a lot of votes from Missouri's blue collar voters, but the southern part of the state has a fair amount of evangelicals. So far, Ted Cruz hasn't managed to corral those voters, but if they come out decisively for him we could see a surprise here. I'll call it for Trump but turnout will be the key. The winner gets all 52 delegates.
North Carolina : Considered a purple state, North Carolina is still mostly red, with the purple part mainly in the Raleigh-Durham area. All the polls show Trump decisively ahead, with Cruz and Rubio fighting it out for the anti-Trump vote. Cruz will likely finish second. The state's black voters should give Mrs. Clinton the win on the Democrat side.
North Carolina's delegates are awarded proportionally, so Mrs Clinton should get most of the 121 Democrat delegates with Trump getting half or better of the 72 Republican ones and Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio taking what's left.
Ohio : On the Democrat side, I predict that Bernie Sanders will score a surprise upset. He's trending upward in the polls, and if he's going to score anywhere it should be here in the Buckeye State. Ohio is winner take all, so Bernie Sanders can get all 159 delegates if he wins.
On the GOP side, this is going to be a close one. Governor John Kasich is a very popular governor who already has an organization set up in his home state. The conventional wisdom is that he should win easily, taking all of Ohio's 66 Republican delegates in a winner take all contest.
Instead, he's narrowly ahead in the polls in front of Donald Trump, who's been hitting him hard on his votes for NAFTA and his support for trade programs and amnesty for illegal aliens that have cost Ohio's workers jobs. Also, in an open primary, Trump can count on support from a surprising number of blacks in cities like Cleveland , blue collar conservative Democrats who are defying their union bosses and as in Illinois, people outraged at the Angry Left's assault on Trump events.
The ironic part is that Donald Trump might actually be better off losing here. A victory in Ohio would keep John Kasich in the race as Marco Rubio drops out to continue to split the anti-Trump vote.
I expect the closed Republican only caucus in the Northern Marianas to go for Ted Cruz, giving him 9 delegates in a winner take all contest.
Laura Rambeau Lee,Right Reason : Tuesday should be an interesting evening as the polls close and the winners announced. I am going out on a limb here and after watching the events and debate of this past week here are my predictions for Super Tuesday 2 on the GOP side:
Florida - Trump wins Florida but not as much as predicted, with Cruz, Rubio and Kasich in that order. Florida is winner takes all, Trump wins Florida’s 99 delegates.
Illinois - Illinois seems too close to call at this point between Trump and Cruz. I believe after the events this past week Trump will take Illinois, followed by Cruz, Kasich and Rubio. There are a total of 69 delegates and the winner takes most of the delegates.
Ohio - Trump, Kasich and Cruz seem to be in a dead heat, but I believe Kasich will win. Winner takes all with a delegate count of 66.
North Carolina – A total of 72 delegates allocated proportionally. Winner will be Trump, then Cruz, Rubio and Kasich.
Missouri – Trump will win Missouri, with Cruz, Kasich and Rubio following. There are a total of 52 delegates and winner takes all.
Northern Marianas caucus’s 9 delegates should go to Cruz.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton should win Florida and North Carolina. Sanders has a good chance of winning Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri.
As I said, should be interesting. Hopefully after this Super Tuesday 2 we will be down to just Trump and Cruz as Kasich and Rubio have no chance of winning the nomination. They should have dropped out already in my opinion.
Well, there you have it.
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