Germany To Build Israeli Warships

Israel and the German government have finalized a deal for the German firm Thyssen Krupp to build four new corvettes for the Israeli Navy at the Kiel shipyards.

The exact details of what model the Israelis settled on is classified, but based on previous talks the ships will probably be either MEKO A100 class (pictured above) or the MEKO CSL's, something more along the lines of a littoral combat ship. The new frigates will be configured with Israeli electronics like IAI’s Elta’s EL/M-2248 MF-STAR radar systems and Israeli weaponry like the new Barak-8 medium range air defense missile. There's also a rear pad for an attack or recon helicopter. The cost of the deal is a billion euros, of which Germany will subsidize 115 million euros. This is a similar type of deal to the one Israel did with Germany to get its six Dolphin-class nuclear capable subs, also built at Kiel.

Israel's strategic mission for the corvettes is the protection of Israel's off shore drilling installations, so they needed a fast ship that can provide decent defense against any attacking enemies as well as surface attack punch. Israel's SOTA Heron UAVs are already operating in maritime patrols and the new ships will augment that.

The work is expected to start in a matter of weeks, as soon as the German parliament’s budget committee gives final approval, which is expected to be forthcoming.

Obama Military Budget To Kill Tomahawk And HellFire Missile Programs

 

Aside from cutting our Navy to pre WWII levels, President Obama's new military budget targets what weapons we have left.

The new Obama defense budget will abolish two of our most successful missile programs.Raytheorn's Tomahawk, probably the world's best and most effective cruise missile will be cut by $128 million under Obama’s fiscal year 2015 budget proposal and completely eliminated by fiscal year 2016, according to budget documents released by the Navy. Given the present average usage, there will be no Tomahawks left by 2018 at the latest.

Aside from the severe financial cuts, the Navy will be limited in the amount of actual Tomahawk missiles they are allowed to acquire, from 196 last year to just 100 in 2015, with no Tomahawks at all in 2016. This was probably included to make sure that no one tried to preserve the program by shifting funds from other areas.

According to Obama’s proposal, the Navy is also going to be forced to cancel any purchase of Hellfire missiles in 2015, one of our most effective tools of the trade.

The president and his team are mandating this change without a replacement missile currently ready to take the Tomahawk's place.There is a new missile currently in development, Lockheed Martin's Long Range Anti Ship Missile, but like Lockheed Martin's other dysfunctional product, the F-35, the Long Range Anti Ship Missile has been plagued with massive development costs and overruns, has vastly underperformed when tested and might not be fully ready to be deployed for as much as ten years.

 Lockheed Martin, by the way, spent something like $14.5 million in lobbying, much of it aimed towards President Obama and Democrats. And the company has been credited in some corners as helping to deliver Virginia for Obama in 2012 by delaying planned  layoff notices to workers, followed by a timely last minute Pentagon announcement just before the election that no Lockheed Martin contracts were going to be cut.Probably just one of those funny coincidences, I'm sure.

Considering how other countries like China, North Korea and Iran are actually working to improve their naval and anti-ship capabilities, killing off the Tomahawk and Hellfire along with the other severe cuts mandated for our Navy is the equivalent of running up the white flag when it comes to our global military dominance.

This will not end well.

Iran Building A Mock Lifesize U.S. Aircraft Carrier

 

The New York Times is reporting that Iran is building a full scale mock-up of the USS Nimitz in its shipyards.

Apparently they're also taking no trouble to hide it.

The model, which is described as more like a large barge and has no engine components has the Nimitz’s number 68 neatly painted in white near the bow, with fake aircraft on the flight deck.

“Based on our observations, this is not a functioning aircraft carrier; it’s a large barge built to look like an aircraft carrier,” said Cmdr. Jason Salata, a spokesman for the Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, across the Persian Gulf from Iran. “We’re not sure what Iran hopes to gain by building this. If it is a big propaganda piece, to what end?” [...]

But unlike Iran’s efforts to conceal its underground nuclear-related sites, the Iranian Navy has taken no steps to cloak from prying Western satellites what it is building pierside at the busy shipyard. “The system is often too opaque to understand who hatched this idea, and whether it was endorsed at the highest levels,” said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The article speculates that the Iranians are planning to tow this barge out to sea and blow it up as a 'propaganda coup'. As if the Iranians can't use CGI tosimulte the Nimitz getting blown up on film, the way they simulated an Iranian attack of Israel and the U.S awhile back!

I just love experts.

Two words: t-a-r-g-e-t t-r-a-i-n-i-n-g.

Iran's naval defense is made up of antiquated frigates, ship mounted and land based anti-ship missiles,3 refitted Russian SSK Kilo attack submarines, a handful of Ghadir and Nahang class mini submarines and a flotilla of small power launches armed with machine guns and torpedoes, and a few small missile boats like this one:



Now let's see...why would Iran want a large scale mock-up of a U.S. aircraft carrier except to train crews manning their anti-ship missiles, practice suicide attacks by the launches and train their submarine crews?

The Iranians are doing what's called contingency planning. I have a feeling we aren't,  at least with Barack Obama as commander-in-chief, because he has no intention of stopping the Iranians from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Obama Administration To Shrink Military Back To Pre WWII Levels

Pravda-on-the-Hudson has leaked Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel's proposals to downsize our military to pre WWII levels.

The Army is going to be cut to between 440,000 and 450,000, as opposed to a post-9/11 peak of 570,000. A lot of the troops we're getting rid of include battle hardened and experienced officers, NCO's and enlisted men whom served in AfPak and Iraq...not to mention experienced and successful commanders like General Stan McCrystal and the Marine Corps' General Mattis, who have already been forced into early retirement for political reasons.

Our entire fleet of Air Force A-10 attack aircraft, one of the best anti-tank planes in the world are going to be eliminated while more money is going to be spent on what the Times calls 'the controversial F-35 warplane'. It's controversial, all right.

The Navy will be limited to adding two destroyers and two attack submarines every year, but will have to give up 11 heavy and light cruisers, which will go into what's called 'reduced operating status'. That simply isn't enough to maintain America's naval superiority on the world's oceans.

The Navy managed to save all 11 of its aircraft carriers for now, but some of them are approaching mid life and we're not going to be building any new ones. The USS George Washington is going to be overhauled and will get a nuclear refueling, but there's no guarantee for any of the others, especially if the defense budget continues to shrink under the Obama Administration as it likely will.

In an effort to discourage retention and new enlistment, pay and benefits are being cut markedly. Pay for officers is to be frozen, while enlisted men will get a single 1% pay raise before their pay is frozen as well. At the same time, a lot of the perks and subsidies that make military life affordable at the current rate of pay are being eliminated or severely cut back. Tax-free housing allowances for military personnel are going to be sharply reduced, and so is the $1.4 billion direct subsidy provided to military commissaries, so groceries and other goods at the PX are going to be a lot more expensive.

Health insurance deductibles and some co-pays will increase for some military retirees and for family members of active duty servicemen, and new enlistees will see even higher rates for these items. This is on top of the screwing our active military already took on their retirement benefits and COLAS.

Aside from the F-35, the areas where the defense budget isn't shrinking? Cyberwarfare, special ops and drones, of course.

What's going on here is pretty easy to figure out, and I said it back when Hagel was first confirmed as SecDef - the idea is to sharply reduce our military capabilities, eliminate our military's ability to fight a two front war, and to use the 'savings' for the president domestic agenda. Instead of jobs for engineers machinists, scientists, assemblers that actually create growth, and instead of providing training in various fields for our military, we'll just hand out more food stamps and welfare checks. Instead of national defense, more green energy scams and more trillion dollar stimulus programs,
Brilliant!

And of course, most of Pravda-on-the Hudson's reader thoroughly approve:

From Binghampton,NY

The size of the army is not the problem; the size of the Pentagon budget is. Replacing soldiers with gold-plated weapons systems is not the answer; demilitarizing the US economy is. The country needs a multi-year plan to cut defense spending in half without sending the economy into a tailspin. Each year 10% of the Pentagon's budget should be transferred to a new agency charged with rebuilding the country's infrastructure. In five years when half of today's trillion dollar military spending has been moved to civilian use, that new agency be phased out by cutting its budget 10% per year. In a decade, the US would finally have a peace-time economy for the first time since 1941.

From St. Louis:

It's high time that Americans have a conversation about our national values. Are we a country constantly at war, using the military as our #1 jobs program? Or are we a nation of peace, where we invest our resources and young people in more productive ways?

Given the long-term effects of war on our citizens, and the cost of caring for disabled veterans like my own father, it just seems obvious that we should scale back the military to pay for things like infrastructure, cleaner energy, job training and education. Let's hope Congress agrees.

And from San Francisco

Not only do we currently spend roughly the same annually on our military than the rest of the world combined, we currently spend ~4x more than the second place spender, China. Even if we scale back adventurous aircraft projects (that can likely easily be replaced by simple unmanned drones), other countries have a long way to go before catching up with us. The parallels drawn in the comments to WWI are unwarranted; we are not going to quickly be overtaken by any other country's military. Were another nation state to begin to turn into a threat we could also still adapt and increase spending. This is a fantastic decision to help balance our budget, and certainly wiser than cutting all known domestic aid programs...

As others have mentioned, the days of nation-against-nation combat are over. Outmoded cold-war-sized armies do no good against terrorists in bunkers. The time is right for intelligent trimming of the military.


Every one of these comments could be datelined 1938 and would fit in quite well.

This is quite a gamble to take, given what's going on with Iran, the PLA's increasing strength and a resurgent Russia,but that is after all what America voted for. Hey,what could go wrong?

Are Iranian Ships Making A Dry Run For An EMP Attack On The US?

While the attention of the American people is directed elsewhere, some ominous developments are occurring. Along with an increasingly belligerent and hostile tone, upgrades in centrifuges and long range missile tests, Iran has announced a naval 'training mission' with two of its warships off our Atlantic coast.

At least one expert on Iran and EMP attacks, Peter Pry thinks the Iranians are doing a dry run for a future nuclear launch or an EMP attack off our coasts.

For those of you unfamiliar with an EMP attack, it involves a nuclear missile that explodes above the earth's atmosphere and sends out an electromagnetic pulse that fries all digital and computer electronics in the area affected.

Most vehicles simply stop running, along with all other machinery configured digitally..gas pumps, ATM machines, most cash registers, credit card readers, microwaves, cell and land line telephones, computers, toll gates and turnstiles, medical equipment, power stations, the Internet, a whole gamut of items we've simply grown used to as part of a 21st century civilization. All of the drones our current military is so reliant on are no longer controllable, and most aircraft and military vehicles become inoperable. The power grid and our missile defense systems go down.

Deliveries of all kinds, including food and fuel become difficult if not impossible, and any patients using pacemakers or hooked up to any medical equipment using digital electronics simply die.

Pry, president of EMPACT America thinks that the Iranians are simply making a dry run, with th eidea of preparing for a future assault:

“I think the Iranian Navy patrols off our coasts may be intended to lull us into complacency, to get the U.S. Navy accustomed to an Iranian naval presence in our hemisphere, so eventually they could contribute to 'Zero Hour' and the great day when the Mullahs decide to drop the nuclear hammer on America,” said Pry, who staffed a former congressional EMP commission.

“I think the Iranian Navy patrols are also intended to humiliate Obama and the United States for the Geneva [nuclear] interim agreement that Tehran interprets, correctly I think, as U.S. surrendering to the inevitability of a nuclear-armed Iran,” he added.

Pry also mentions that the Iranians have recently purchased Russia's Club-K missile launcher, which can be hidden in a container cargo box aboard a seemingly harmless freighter:

“I and my colleagues, including Reza Kahlili, who warned six months ago that these Iranian patrols were coming, think it more likely Iran would make an EMP attack by launching a missile off a freighter, so they could do the deed anonymously, and escape retaliation,” Pry explained.

“Iran has demonstrated the capability to launch a missile off a freighter. Iran has also purchased Russia's Club-K missile system. The Club-K is a complete missile launch system, disguised to look like a shipping container, that could convert any freighter into a missile launch platform. The Club-K, if armed with a nuclear warhead, could be used to execute an EMP attack.”



Keep in mind that the North Koreans have the same sort of capability, and they already have nuclear weapons and delivery systems.

It wasn't so long ago that the United States was free of such threats, thanks to the actions of Presidents Reagan and George HW Bush. Then came three successive presidents who had, shall we say, other priorities.

There was Bill Clinton, who helped the Chinese PLA make a Great Leap Forward in their military capabilities by signing off on shipping them high tech super computers, technology and software with military applications through companies like Democrat donor Loral that analysts like Jane's estimate allowed the Chinese to advance twenty years during his 8 years in office. He also essentially allowed North Korea to develop and enhance its nuclear weapons arsenal, as well as essentially ignoring Islamist terrorism on his watch.

There was George W. Bush, who knew full well that the Iranians had a clandestine nuclear weapons program going as early as 2005, but allowed former Secretary of State Condi Rice and former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates to talk him out of doing anything about it and to refuse to ship the Israelis the tools to do anything about it they requested from us, something Secretary Gates revealed in his latest book.

And of course, Barack Hussein Obama, who has essentially signed off on a nuclear armed Iran in favir of appeasing the Ayatollahs and likewise has chosen to ignore North Korea.

Need I even mention that all three of them also have refused to do anything much in terms of border security? And if you believe that it's only illegal aliens seeking jobs that have taken advantage of this, do a little research on things like Hezbollah cells here in America and links between al-Qaeda and Hezbollah and the Mexican drug cartels.

Elections have consequences. I pray we don't find out the hard way,but the stage is certainly being set for exactly that.

Made In Israel: The Israli Navy's New Combat Vessel

This looks to be a pretty impressive piece of gear. Made by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), the Katana, named after a type of Samurai sword is designed to run manned or unmanned and to transition between the two in minutes. According to IAI, the Katana got its name because they wanted to emphasize the system's speed, reliability and lethal force.

Basically, it's designed to be an ultra reliable patrol vessel specially designed for coast patrol and to protect and conduct surveillance missions for offshore installations like oil oil rigs and fuel or gas pipelines.

The 39 footer is f-a-s-t, with two special diesel engines to move it at a top speed 60 knots (over 110 kilometers (68 miles) per hour). They would give it the ability to run down and catch pretty much any surface craft it wants to. And it carries a multitude of SOTA weapons systems, communications and optical systems, command systems and navigation systems.


 Given that the U.S. Navy is developing underwater drones, it only makes sense that Israel would come up with something like this. And I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them come up with their own underwater drones soon.

Kol Tov, IAI!

The Navy's New Weapon - The Underwater Drone

What you're looking at above could end up changing naval warfare as radically as the submarine and the aircraft carrier did. It's a Slocum Glider, one of the Navy's brand new weapons - an underwater drone.

The Navy's idea was to be able to do underwater what drones have been been doing in the sky: recon stealthily for long periods of time, and gather intel. Attack crones may be only a step away.

Even more amazing, the underwater drones require no refueling, because they are designed to be powered by the ocean’s thermocline, the layers of warm water near the surface and colder water below.The glider changes its density depending on which layer its in which makes the 5-foot (1.5m)drone either rise or sink, something the Navy calls hydraulic buoyancy. Its wings use the up-and-down motion to create a forward speed of about a mile (1.6 km) an hour. At regular intervals the drone is programmed to regularly approach the surface, and an air bladder in the tail inflates to stick an antenna out of the water so it can transmit data.

The use of the drones in scoping out an enemy coastline, tracking surface ships and finding submarines looks to be invaluable in making the ocean, the coastline and the area beneath the surface an open book.

The one drawback I think will have to be worked on is the relatively slow speed....perhaps with a small fueled booster designed to be used to escape capture or destruction in an emergency,or a remote self destruct trigger.

The drones are named for Captain Joshua Slocum, famous for sailing alone around the world in a 37-foot sloop in the late 19th century.They're capable of being programmed to use a variety of sensors and as you can imagine, they're far cheaper to operate than normal fuel powered ships. There is even some research going on regarding the feasibility of launching the gliders via submarine torpedo tubes, making a single submarine an intel and espionage center that could cover a whole ocean sector.

I can almost guarantee you that we're going to hear more about these amazing devices.

Confrontation Between U.S. And Chinese Navy In International Waters

American and Chinese navy ships apparently played out a game of 'chicken' in international waters.

The USS Cowpens, a Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser had a confrontation with elements of the Chinese navy patrolling in the South China Sea near Beijing’s new aircraft carrier Liaoning when the Cowpens was returning from helping out with relief efforts in the Philippines. Bill Gertz reports:

“On December 5th, while lawfully operating in international waters in the South China Sea, USS Cowpens and a PLA Navy vessel had an encounter that required maneuvering to avoid a collision,” a Navy official said.

“This incident underscores the need to ensure the highest standards of professional seamanship, including communications between vessels, to mitigate the risk of an unintended incident or mishap.”

A State Department official said the U.S. government issued protests to China in both Washington and Beijing in both diplomatic and military channels.

The Cowpens was conducting surveillance of the Liaoning at the time. The carrier had recently sailed from the port of Qingdao on the northern Chinese coast into the South China Sea.

According to the officials, the run-in began after a Chinese navy vessel sent a hailing warning and ordered the Cowpens to stop. The cruiser continued on its course and refused the order because it was operating in international waters.

Then a Chinese tank landing ship sailed in front of the Cowpens and stopped, forcing the Cowpens to abruptly change course in what the officials said was a dangerous maneuver.

What to make of this? I see it as China taking new steps in asserting itself in the region, as part and parcel of China's proclaimed air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea,which neither the U.S. or Japan recognize, although both countries have advised domestic airliners to comply.

China's Liaoning, like any other aircraft carrier is pretty heavily guarded, and it may be that some Chinese navy captain simply decided to push the envelope a bit in protecting his carrier.

But what's more likely to my mind is that the Chinese realize that President Obama's 'Asian pivot' is as hollow as his Middle East strategy, and they're making use of it. Remember, the Chinese play Go, not chess, and the idea is to control territory and access rather than aggressively taking pieces off the board.

And it also appears to be the start of a pattern:

The Cowpens incident is the most recent example of Chinese naval aggressiveness toward U.S. ships.

The U.S. intelligence-gathering ship, USNS Impeccable, came under Chinese naval harassment from a China Maritime Surveillance ship, part of Beijing’s quasi-military maritime patrol craft, in June.

During that incident, the Chinese ship warned the Navy ship it was operating illegally despite sailing in international waters. The Chinese demanded that the ship first obtain permission before sailing in the area that was more than 100 miles from China’s coast.

The U.S. military has been stepping up surveillance of China’s naval forces, including the growing submarine fleet, as part of the U.S. policy of rebalancing forces to the Pacific.

Put another way, the Pacific is America's western redoubt, as General Douglas MacArthur presciently said many years ago. Breech it or drive us out and control of the entire Pacific region is up for grabs, with Australia, Hawaii and the U.S. West Coast left vulnerable.

This story isn't news today, what with America's domestic discords. But it could very well end up as headlines in the future if this continues.

Germany To Sell Two Destroyers To Israeli Navy

 

Germany has agreed to sell two destroyers to the Israeli Navy at a cost of one billion euros ($1.3 billion). The new ships are a significant investment for the Israeli Navy, and will primarily be used to protect Israel's gas and oil pipelines in the Mediterranean.

The new destroyers are high-end MEKO Class F221 frigates with a full range of capabilities, equipped with 76MM guns, Surface to Air missiles, torpedoes, and Harpoon anti-ship missiles, so there's a good set of air defense, anti-ship, and anti-submarine weapons.

These would add punch to Israel's current Sa’ar 5 Corvettes, equipped with bow-mounted and towed sonars, 6x 324mm torpedo tubes for Mark 46 torpedoes, a Mk15 Phalanx 20mm gun and a Typhoon remotely-operated 7.62-30mm gun/missile systems, as well as the two upgraded Barak-8 missile launchers.

The Israelis also now have 5 of the 6 German-Built Dolphin-class nuclear-missile capable subs they purchased in their possession.

The Dolphins, with their 2700 mile cruising range can reach Iranian or Hezbollah targets easily.

US And The Philippines Discuss Larger US Military Presence To Restructure Old Alliance

 

The Filipino government, anxious about what they say is increasing Chinese aggression in Philippine-claimed waters in the South China Sea is now in talks with the US about an increased US military presence and help in refurbishing and training its own military.

Filipino Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin and Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario sent a letter to the FIlipino congress emphasizing the necessity for American troops to have an “increased rotational presence” will help the country attain a “minimum credible defense” to help the Philippines guard its territory while it works to modernize its own military, something that has not been a priority for quite some time.

The Philippines, a former U.S. colony actually bans foreign troops being permanently based on its soil, something that was directly aimed at the US after the two countries had a falling out in 1991 and forced the U.S. to vacate its two major American bases in the Philippines at Subic and Clark.

A few U.S. troops were allowed back in to help the Filipino military battle Abu Sayaff, the local al-Qaeda affiliate (the Philippines has a large Muslim population, mainly located on the southern island of Mindanao), but this recent call is directed at increasing tension between the Philippines and China.

China claims huge stretches of the South China Sea as its own sovereign territory, and that has led to clashes with not only the Philippines but with Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan. The Chinese sent a fleet into the waters of the Spratly Islands, which the Philipines claim as their own sovereign territory just last July, and China has also turned Mischief Reef, which it occupied, into a naval base.

So the Filipino government is once again seeking to base U.S. forces there.

While this is being dubbed as 'temporary' for political reasons, there's no doubt in my mind that the superb harbor at what was a major U.S. base at Subic Bay will once again become a prominent American military asset.

In his famous speech to Congress 62 years ago, General Douglas MacArthur reminded America that the western Pacific is America's maritime redoubt against our enemies. He was entirely correct.

We're seeing this basic truth reaffirmed again, as our ally Japan rebuilds its Navy and the U.S. builds ups its forces in Northern Australia, Guam, the Marianas and the naval fortress of Singapore. Look for the Philippines to be another important link in our Pacific defenses.

This is a much bigger deal than it appears.

Obama Continues To Align US With Islamists: Joint US-Egypt Naval War Games Scheduled

Here's yet another indication of President Obama's desire to create what he referred to in his own words as 'daylight' between America and Israel while embracing the Islamist regimes.

Never mind that Egypt just sacked our embassy while the Egyptian security personnel  looked the other way, none of the perpetrators were arrested and  and Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood President Mohammed Morsi didn't even bother to apologize for the incident for almost a week.

Our commander-in -chief has ordered our Navy to begin meeting to schedule war games with Egypt's navy:


Talks are under way between senior Navy officials and their counterparts in Cairo to begin conducting joint war games for the first time since Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi took power earlier this year. 

While bilateral discussions on the naval drills are still being discussed, the exercises would focus on improving Egypt's ability to deal with small boat attacks and general patrol operations of its coastal waters, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jonathan Greenert told reporters Thursday. 

In the near term, the Pentagon is laying out the conditions with the country's new military leaders to allow American warships to begin docking at Egyptian ports again, Greenert said during a speech at an Association of the U.S. Navy-sponsored event in Washington that same day.

In other words, not only is the US going to continue to supply Egypt with $1.5 billion in military aid, we're going to help train them how to use it.

Now, riddle me this...who is all this training and military aid to the Egyptian military ultimately targeted against? Who does the Islamist regime in Cairo consider to be its main enemy?  For which country has Egypt already set up a scenario for to declare their mutual   peace treaty null and void? When the Egyptian military performs its own war games, what country do they always designate as their enemy, treaty or no treaty?

You win the teddy bear if you guessed 'Israel'. And now you know what President Obama was talking about when he referred to Israel as merely 'one of our closest allies in the region.'.And one whose concern over Iran going nuclear is mere noise to him, an annoyance to be to be ignored.

Now the Islamist regimes like Egypt and Turkey...well, that's something different to this president. Those regimes and their whims and concerns  need to be appeased at all costs.

Which brings to mind another question. How can you call one country 'one of your closest allies in the region' while aligning yourself with it's enemies?

Russians Change Plans, Decide To Send Ships And Marines To Syria After All

After making some somewhat contradictory statements, the Russians have apparently decided to send troops and ships to the Syrian port of Tartus after all.

While they're somewhat reluctant to reveal exactly what will be landing, Interfax sources revealed that the fleet hitting Tarsus will consist of three landing assault ships,( similar to our U.S.S. Boxer) an anti-submarine ship and four smaller vessels, probably escort class or patrol boats. The ships are carrying a contingent of about 360 Russian marines and amphibious armored personnel carriers.

There's a great deal of speculation going around as to what the Russians are up to.

There's some speculation the the Russians are there to evacuate their nationals and load sensitive equipment. I doubt it.

The only way that happens is if the Russians go on a mission to Damascus and secure a landing strip. Even at that,there are well over 30,000 Russian nationals in Syria, far too many to evacuate without a long term mission.

I think what is happening here is that Assad just got resupplied, and the marines and APC's are there to escort the swag to him...and perhaps take a few well connected Russians back out with them.

It looks more and more like Assad is putting together the redoubt in Northwest Syria I wrote about earlier.

Der Spiegel: Israel’s German-built Submarines Are Equipped With Nuclear Weapons

The German publication Der Spiegel has reported that the Dolphin-class submarines built (and partially financed) by Germany and supplied to Israel are equipped with a special hydraulic launch system capable of launching nuclear missiles. They're also saying that Germany was fully aware of this but chose not to publicize it.

This is all part of a 12-page expose entitled “Secret Operation Samson: How Germany arms nuclear Israel.”

Of course, to those of you whom read these pages regularly, none of this is exactly news. The Dolphin-class subs ( Israel now has four with two more scheduled for delivery) are perfect additions for Israel's naval needs.

They have a cruising range of 4,500 km/ 2,700 miles, which makes some potentially interesting targets in Iran or Hezbollah's bases in Lebanon easily reachable for Israel's “Popeye Turbo” cruise missiles, which are also nuclear capable. The ten torpedo tubes can also fire torpedoes or anti-ship missiles like Boeing’s UGM-86 Harpoons, and the Dolphins also have a wet and dry compartment for deploying underwater frogmen and commandos.

The Israeli newspaper Yediot's translation of the Der Spiegel piece quotes it as saying, “Research in Germany, Israel and the US leaves no room for doubt. Using German marine technology, Israel has created a floating nuclear arsenal in the Middle East.”

According to the article, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has denied that the submarines have the capability to carry nuclear warheads. In truth, according to the Der Spiegel report, the German government has long been aware of the nuclear capability of the submarines, but out of understanding for Israel’s security needs has always agreed to “look the other way.”

It really doesn't make any difference whether Merkel was telling the truth, of course. The Israelis have a long history of modifying foreign military equipment to suit their own needs that goes back to the 1948 War of Independence, when the Jewish State was largely limited to whatever arms they could manage to manufacture, purchase on the black market or capture from the Arabs.

There's no question that they have the technology to make the Dolphins nuclear-capable whether the Germans went along with it or not.

Farewell To The Big "E" - The USS Enterprise Goes On It's Final Mission

Tomorrow, March 11th, the fabled USS Enterprise sets out on its 22nd and last deployment, sailing from its home port of Norfolk Virginia to the Middle East. The aircraft carrier has been in service to our flag and country for a record 52 years, albeit with a major facelift and renovation for the old girl in 1979.

The Enterprise is bound for a seven-month deployment, where it will be on standby in case of problems with Iran, among other things.

Following its return to Virginia in the fall, there will be a deactivation ceremony on December 1st. President Barack Obama has been invited to attend, on which I'll reserve comment. After the ceremony, the Enterprise will be towed back to its birthplace, the Newport News shipyard where it was built so that its nuclear fuel can be removed, a process that will reportedly take until 2015. After that, the hulk will be taken to Washington state so it can be scrapped.

The Enterprise, named after her famous WWII namesake was built in 1960. She was America's first nuclear powered carrier, and hosts a record number of 8 onboard reactors. The ship has participated in US military actions from the Cuban Missile Crisis to Vietnam to the Persian Gulf.

When the Enterprise first joined our fleet in October of 1961, she was one of 24 carriers, and the only nuclear-powered carrier, in a Navy of 870 ships. Today she is one of 11 nuclear-powered carriers in a Navy of 285 ships.

Will there be another Enterprise? Perhaps. This is the eighth American ship to bear the name. Her immediate predecessor, the USS Enterprise was the most decorated ship in World War II, while the first Enterprise joined the U.S. fleet after it was captured from the British in 1775.

Good sailing and G-dspeed to the USS Enterprise as she starts her final journey.

Israel And Iran - Dancing With Armageddon

In the past few days, there have been major high level efforts by the Obama Administration and the British government to talk Israel out of pre-emptive strike on Iran's rogue nuclear facilities.

President Obama's National Security Adviser Tom Donilon failed in three days of talks with Israeli PM Netanyahu, Israeli Defense Minister Barak Ehud and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz to convince them to give sanctions and negotiations more time to work.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague delivered the same message to Israel. In a BBC interview, he said Britain was focusing on pressuring Iran through diplomatic means.

"I don't think a wise thing at this moment is for Israel to launch a military attack on Iran," he said. "I think Israel like everyone else in the world should be giving a real chance to the approach we have adopted on very serious economic sanctions and economic pressure and the readiness to negotiate with Iran."

The back story is very different.

The Israelis are livid over what they see as President Obama's betrayal in starting - again- to engage with Iran in back channel diplomacy in exchange for the U.S. and the EU postponing sanctions until July, with the likelihood of further postponements in exchange for more talks. The Israelis had already agreed to hold off to give sanctions time to work, only to find out later that President Obama was using the waiver Congress gave him in the sanctions legislation to postpone any meaningful action.

This movie has played out many times before in the over 7 years or so the West has known about Iran's nuclear program, with 'talks' spinning into months while the regime simply buys time. The Iranians have no intention of seriously being diverted from making nuclear weapons, because they know that's where the regime's ultimate security lies. They've taken note of how differently President Obama has reacted to Kim Il Sung North Korea and Moamar Khaddaffi in Libya.

The new proposal the Iranians are now taking their time to study allows them to continue enriching uranium to 5% in any quantity, provided they promise not to build an Iranian nuclear weapon.

While they're studying the matter, the mullahs are upgrading and greatly expanding the number of centrifuges at Iran's Fordo underground facility near the city of Qom to allow them to to convert their 5% uranium to weapons grade uranium in a matter of days.

This was the backdrop behind PM Netanyahu's remarks in Cyprus on February 15, where he blasted both Iran and by extension, the Obama Administration, saying that sanctions “haven’t worked” and that a regime which attacks diplomats having nuclear weapons “is something of enormous concern for the United States and for Israel.”

According to what I'm hearing from several sources, the discussions with Donilon were fairly strained. The Israelis see this new back channel proposal to Iran from the Obama Administration as a clear violation of guarantees made to Israel regarding Iran and sanctions, especially since it allows Iran to continue nuclear enrichment as well as the hardening and dispersal of its nuclear facilities. Once the talks are underway, the Israelis understand that they can again be spun out for months, and that there would be no way of stopping Iran's progress towards weaponization during the negotiations until it was too late for Israel to do anything about what they correctly regard as an existential threat.

Netanyahu is headed for the United States to meet with President Obama on March 5th to discuss the matter further.Given that it's election time in America, Netanyahu isn't going to be deliberately insulted like he was the first time he came here, but I doubt Netanyahu has any illusions about President Obama's feelings about him and about Israel. Aside from trashing previous agreements with Israel, demanding they retreat to indefensible borders, telling them they have no right to their religious shrines , threatening an aid cutoff, and instituting what amounted to a de facto arms embargo during the early part of President Obama's term, they've watched as the Obama Administration has actively encouraged and enabled the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Libya.

While both men will attempt to keep things civil, especially when the cameras are on them, the meeting is not likely to be an amicable one.

Netanyahu has absolutely no reason to trust anything President Obama says, and he has that in common with many of our allies, who have their own reasons to regard this president as weak and unreliable.

Could the Israelis pull off a strike? As I've discussed on this site several times, there no doubt that they could. And the damage to Iran's nuclear capabilities would likely be far more than merely putting things off for a couple of years if it's done properly.



The obstacles frequently cited are the sheer distance involved, the amount of planes needed, the need for mid-air refueling, the tough Iranian air defenses and the danger of retaliatory strikes from Iran and from Iran's proxies Hezbollah and Hamas.

A couple of years ago I analyzed what an Israeli strike on Iran might look like, and it was interesting to see an echo of some of that thinking recently from Hans Rühle, a leading German security expert who was head of the planning department of the German Defense Ministry between 1982-1988.

In an article in Die Welt, Rühle stated that in his opinion, a well planned Israeli attack could significantly set back Iran’s nuclear weapons program by perhaps a decade or more.

I personally see that as a bit optimistic, but at least five years is a certainty and a much longer time is certainly possible depending on what gets hit.

Rühle and I agree that rather than a huge air armada of over a hundred planes, the Israelis would use smaller groups of 25 or 30 planes, each armed with two GBU-28 bunker busters. I think the Israelis would likely proceed a strike with a cyber attack to blind and confuse Iran's radar and missile defenses as they did in Syria. Even though the Syrians had something Iran doesn't, the advanced Russian S - 300 missile defense systems, the Israelis were able to blind and baffle them easily. The Israelis might even possibly mount an EMP attack using a Jericho III missile, which would destroy Iranian communications, computer networks and electronic controls.

The Israelis have one large advantage in an air attack they didn't have before. The most direct route planes would likely take to their targets in Iran is over Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The Iraqis have no air defenses at this time and now that U.S. forces have withdrawn from Iraq, the U.S. has no part in defending Iraq's air space, so the road is wide open.

As for the Saudis, they would have no objections whatsoever to Israel taking out Shi'ite Iran's nuclear program. They've already signaled as much.

Using a smaller number of planes would allow greater flexibility in mid air refueling from Israel's fleet of 9 U.S. made tankers, and also allow attacks to be made in waves against specific targets while other planes refuel. Rühle suspects that the Israelis have configured additional planes as tankers. I know for a fact that Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) is currently working on converting a recently-acquired Boeing 707 for use as a super tanker, with delivery scheduled to the IDF by mid year. Never underestimate the Israeli genius for improvisation.

Nor is Israel's arsenal limited to F-15's and F-16's armed with bunker busters. The Israelis have state-of -the art drones available like the jumbo jet sized Eitan, which can carry a one ton payload and fly for 48 straight hours, their fleet of nuclear-capable Dolphin subs, each capable of firing Jericho II and III missiles with great precision and their land based Jericho III's with a range capable of reaching Iranian targets.

Rühle sees the primary nuclear targets as the nuclear plant at Natanz, the conversion facility in Isfahan, the heavy water reactor at Arak and the major weapons and munitions sites in Parchin. In addition, he notes the deep underground enrichment facility at Fordow near Qom and Iran’s nuclear plant at Bushehr, on the Persian Gulf:

Rühle writes that surveillance “information about Natanz is solid,“ adding that the “project has been observed from satellites and from the location from 'Israeli tourists.'”

He added that Israel strongest bunker buster bombs GBU-28 could destroy the roof of the facility. If the damage is not sufficient, a second GBU-28 could be launched to complete the aim of destruction.

According to Rühle, Israel’s successful obliteration of the Syrian nuclear reactor in 2007 laid an important precedent. He writes that “many experts believe “ that strikes against Iran’s nuclear operations could set back the program 10 years, or possibly longer, based on present knowledge.

The fighter plane requirement would entail 20 F-15 machines each accompanied with two GBU-28s. He estimates that Israel’s air force has over 87 F-15 planes at its disposal. The conversion Nuclear Technology Center of Isfahan, which is largely vulnerable to attack because its buildings are not underground, could be eliminated with GBU-27 bombs. Isfahan converts the yellow cake process into uranium.

The least difficult challenge for Israel’s air force is the heavy-water reactor Arak, observes Rühle. The above-ground facility could be razed with 10 GBU-10 bombs, wrote Rühle. The strike would require 10 F- 16 fighter jets.

According to Rühle, the most difficult obstacle to destroy is the underground Fordow enrichment plant. He notes that special team forces would have to attack the facility.

The alternative would be to strike the tunnel openings with GBU-28 bombs to plug the entry points for a period of time.

The complex Parchin site remains beyond the International Atomic Energy Agency inspections and it is unclear how many bombs it would take to destroy the over 100 buildings, many of which are buried underground. Nuclear warheads are believed to be worked on in the Parchin plant.

Most people I've talked to in a position to know these things agree with Rühle's analysis of the targets involved. I would also add that the use of tactical nukes would make sites like Parchin and Fordow uninhabitable,let alone unusable for quite some time. And a strike on Iran's refineries and oil infrastructure along the Persian Gulf and especially at the oil terminus at Kharg Island would insure a long period of freedom from an Iranian threat because it would eliminate Iran's abilities to finance these sort of toys for many years, and perhaps even involve regime change as Iran's economy goes into free fall. Call it the ultimate 'sanction' if you like.

Would Iran retaliate? Certainly they would. But there's a better than even chance their retaliation would be limited to targets in the Gulf. As I've discussed previously, Hezbollah and Hamas have their own compelling reasons why they might choose not to attack Israel at this time on Iran's orders. Hezbollah in particular might choose to hold its fire so as not to bring on itself the sort of loss of political capital it experienced in Lebanon after the last war from an Israeli retaliation. In 2006, the Israelis largely held off from hitting Lebanese targets in areas not controlled by Hezbollah, but now that Hezbollah is a controlling element in Lebanon those restrictions aren't going to apply in the future, as the Israeli government has already made quite plain. Hamas might also not want to endanger its Gaza fiefdom for Iran, especially since relations between Hamas and Iran aren't what they once were since Hamas decided not to send fighters to Syria to back Assad against their fellow Sunnis.

The chief area of Iranian retaliation would likely be attempts to destroy shipping and close off the Persian Gulf.The U.S. has already made it quite clear that any attempt by Iran to do so with be a red line and bring America's Navy into the picture, with fairly drastic results for Iran.

Iran does have Shahab missiles capable of hitting Israeli territory with conventional warheads, but there are doubts about whether their expertise in targeting these missiles is sufficient to do major damage to Israel. In any event, there's sufficient reason for Israel not to wait until Iran's technology improves. Whatever the cost now, it would be infinitely greater with an Iranian regime armed with nuclear weapons.

What Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu will likely relay to the president when they meet early next is a message that if the U.S. doesn't do something to curtail Iran's ongoing nuclear weapons program, Israel will.

There's no doubt in my mind they have the capability of doing so.

Germany To Sell Israel A Sixth Dolphin Class Submarine

The Israeli navy has contracted with Germany for a sixth Dolphin-class submarine, to be built at the Howaldtswerke-Deutche Werft AG (HDW) shipyard, in the Baltic city of Kiel.

According to the Jerusalem Post:

“Christian Schmidt, [Germany’s] secretary of state for defense, told the Post that the contract was signed a few weeks ago and that Germany had agreed to subsidize its cost…. The submarines under construction will be fitted with a new [AIP] propulsion system…. Schmidt said that Germany was looking to increase its defense cooperation with Israel and was specifically interested in learning from the IDF about training and military doctrine. He said that Germany was also considering buying the Heron TP long-range unmanned aerial vehicle later this decade to replace the Heron 1 it is operating in Afghanistan.

The Israeli Navy already has two additional Dolphins being built that wil be delivered later this year.

The Dolphin is a pretty neat little craft with a nasty sting and a cruising range of 4,500 km/ 2,700 miles. That makes some potentially interesting targets in Iran or Hezbollah's bases in Lebanon easily reachable for Israel's “Popeye Turbo” cruise missiles, which can be fired from four of the ten torpedo tubes, which can also fire torpedoes or anti-ship missiles like Boeing’s UGM-86 Harpoons.The Dolphins also have a wet and dry compartment for deploying underwater frogmen and commandos.

The Israelis are rumored to have done tests with a nuclear-capable version of the Popeye as well, and if they follow their usual procedure, they will also provide the new sub with a few innovations all their own.

US/Israel Military Exercises Postponed; US Pressures Israel Against Unilateral Iran Strike

The US and Israel have postponed the joint military exercises they had scheduled for April under the code name "Austere Challenge". The official reason given was to avoid exacerbating tensions with Iran.

The exercise as it was originally planned would have include more than 5,000 U.S. personnel and simulated Israel's ballistic missile defense.

In the midst of all this, the US is strongly pressuring the Israelis not to mount a unilateral attack on Iran at this time. US Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is scheduled to be in Israel this week for talks with his IDF head, Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, and is also going to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and that's exactly the message he's almost certainly carrying.

While the US Senate voted 100-1 to impose sanctions on Iranian oil and on Iran's central bank, the Democrats watered things down sufficiently so that President Obama has substantial wiggle room on when and how to apply them. So far, the most damaging sanction, on Iran's Central Bank that would make it difficult for Iran to process its oil payments has been put off for six months by President Obama.

Moshe 'Boogie' Yaalon, Israel's vice prime minister put his finger on what's going on in an interview with Israel Radio today.

He compared the Obama administration's actions to those of France and Britain, which he said "are taking a very firm stand and understand sanctions must be imposed immediately."

"In the United States, the Senate passed a resolution, by a majority of 100-to-one, to impose these sanctions, and in the U.S. administration there is hesitation for fear of oil prices rising this year, out of election-year considerations."

"In that regard, this is certainly a disappointment, for now."

Yaalon continued that the international community must force Iran to "face the dilemma of choosing between its nuclear program or its regime as soon as possible," using the tougher sanctions necessary to isolate the regime.

Yaalon, finished by saying that Israel should not "leap forward" to attack Iran, "But Israel has to be ready to defend itself.Let's hope we do not arrive at that moment."

The truth of the matter - and Yaalon, Netanyahu, Gantz, General Dempsey and yes, the Iranians all know it - is that the entire US posture in the Gulf is geared towards defense, not offense.

As my friend the always scintillating Commander J.D. Dyer points out, what we're currently seeing in the Gulf is a small defensive buildup, a sign of how the Obama Administration plans to deal with Iran:

...we are not “boosting” our troop presence in the Gulf. We decided last year to keep some of the troops coming out of Iraq in Kuwait, as a ready force to deal with contingencies. As far as I can tell, the US administration has not explicitly implied in the last few days that the troops were “dispatched” to Kuwait, as if they had just recently deployed from North America. But numerous news outlets are reporting the developments in exactly those terms.

The force of about 15,000 includes two Army brigade combat teams (BCTs) and a combat air (helicopter) brigade, all of which deployed in 2011 prior to the withdrawal of combat forces from Iraq. We haven’t “boosted” our ground-force presence in the Persian Gulf; we have drawn it down a little less than originally advertised. The forces in Kuwait are insufficient to mount an attack with; they might be used instead to help defend Gulf nations if Iran retaliated against sanctions or other Western actions with regional attacks. (The original premise was being able to go back into Iraq for security operations.)

The carrier strike group situation, meanwhile, will prove out in the coming days; we may have decided to keep two strike groups on station instead of one. One of two carriers that are currently outside the Persian Gulf – USS John C Stennis (CVN-74), which has been on station and is due to go home to the West coast, and USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70), which has just arrived from San Diego – will probably leave shortly. A third carrier strike group, that of USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), is reportedly headed for the theater from its last port visit in Thailand, which may mean that two carriers will be within a 1-3 day transit of the Persian Gulf, even if both are not operating there continuously.

It has been far from unusual to have two carriers in CENTCOM over the past decade. Even Pat Buchanan seems to have given up thinking it’s a harbinger of an ill-advised attack on Iran. Two carriers are, in fact, insufficient to launch a deliberate attack on Iran – like the ground forces being retained in Kuwait. The presence of two carriers in the theater for an extended period is evidence of a marginally heightened defensive profile. (It also gives the president the flexibility to send one on a dash to the Eastern Mediterranean if necessary, while keeping one on station in Southwest Asia.) The two carriers are not a signal that we are going on offense.

Notably, if we did need to apply significant force in the Eastern Med, we’d have to send assets there. The Russians have the only aircraft carrier task force deployed in EASTMED. The US has not maintained a robust carrier presence in the Med for some years now. (Interestingly, Britain and France are planning to jointly deploy a large naval force – including aircraft carriers – to the Med later this year.)

That's the real story behind the postponing of the joint US/Israel military exercises - President Obama is simply trying to wait out the election season hoping he doesn't have to take any decisive action on Iran while doing his very best to keep Israel from forcing the issue.

The president may also be concerned with preventing the Israelis from taking the option away from him of a 'wag the dog' October surprise attack on Iran if he's down in the polls. I guarantee you that scenario's been discussed at the White House.

Iran Warns US: 'Keep Your Aircraft Carrier Out Of The Persian Gulf'

Iran issued warnings today that they regard the Strait of Hormuz as their territorial waters and that a US ship that exited into the Strait into the Gulf of Oman had better not return to the Persian Gulf - or else.

“We recommend to the American warship that passed through the Strait of Hormuz and went to Gulf of Oman not to return to the Persian Gulf,” said Maj. Gen. Ataollah Salehi, the commander in chief of the army, as reported by Iran’s official news agency, IRNA. “The Islamic Republic of Iran will not repeat its warning.”

The ship General Salehi was talking about is the aircraft carrier the USS John C. Stennis.

The warning was accompanied by a statement from a senior member of Iran's majlis (parliament) Nader Qazipour, reported in Iran's FARS News Agency that any foreign warships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian consent should be stopped, as Iran considers the Strait part of its territorial waters rahttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifther than a freely passable international waterway :

"If the military vessels and warships of any country want to pass via the Strait of Hormoz without coordination and permission of Iran's Navy forces, they should be stopped by the Iranian Armed Forces," Nader Qazipour told FNA, explaining about the contents of the plan.

In relevant remarks on Monday, another Iranian legislator stressed that Iran will use all its capabilities and possibilities to defend the country against foreign threats and the country will use the Strait of Hormoz as a defensive tool and will close the waterway if it comes under threat.

"Iran will definitely use the defensive potential of the Strait of Hormoz if it is faced with threats," Rapporteur of the parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission Kazzem Jalali told FNA.

The bellicose saber rattling has a purpose, of course.

In the midst of all of this, the Iranians suddenly announced that they're willing to entertain talks again on their nuclear program with the UN 5+1 (the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) due to the wonderful non-results that occurred last time.

It's the carrot and stick game the Mullahs have played so successfully in the past,and its one purpose is to buy time for Iran to complete its nuclear weapons and delivery systems.

President Obama bought into this big time. He reluctantly ( his own words) finally signed tough sanctions passed by Congress against Iran into law that target their central bank and would make it difficult for them to process their oil payments.

The only problem is, they're meaningless because of how the Senate Democrats watered them down. Not only don't they take effect for six months, but President Obama has the wiggle room not to apply them if he judges doing so would not be in US interest.

There's no question in my mind that President Obama will almost certainly bend over again, swallow hard and engage with Iran. It's also almost a certainty the US will not enforce any sanctions while talks are going on, let alone any military action. And of course,Russia will see to it that the proposed talks go absolutely nowhere except to a highly watered down policy statement the Mullahs will use for toilet paper.

This is indeed a very bad time for America to have a leader like President Obama at the helm of the ship of state.

Iran's War Games: 'An Important Message..Especially To The Colonialist Powers'

The Iranian navy is in the process of staging Velayat 90, a ten day military 'exercise' covering an area stretching from the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden,the entrance to the Indian Ocean.

The regime's official PRESS-TV quotes member of the Majlis (parliament) National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Zohreh Elahian as saying: “The [Iranian] Navy's military maneuvers in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman indicate the power and dominance of Iran's Navy in regional waters. The exercises send an important message to the whole world, especially the colonialist powers…and also show the power of [Iran's] armed forces, particularly [the country's] Navy.”

Elahian also added that 'foreign media' have admitted that Iran and its Navy are so powerful that if threatened, the country can take control of the Strait of Hormuz as the global economic and energy conduit.

The last one, of course, is the kicker and the real purpose of this display.

In an actual brawl with, say, the US Navy, Iran's navy would find itself overpowered in a hurry. Their line ships consist of three destroyers over 50 years old and a mere handful of light frigates and corvettes. Some of these ships date from the 1970's but sport more modern anti-ship missiles like Chinese C-802's, most of which date from the mid-1990's. They also have two of what they call 'missile boats', essentially large patrol boats with extra missile launchers.They're both Iranian built, with all that implies.

The main emphasis of Iran's navy is submarines and patrol boats designed for coastal defense.The best of the subs are 3 Russian SSK Kilo class, with most of the rest being mini-subs or 'midget' class, like the Tareq and Qadir types mentioned in the PRESS TV article.Again, except for the SSK's, most of them are Iranian manufactured.

None of them would hold up for very long against a carrier group, especially since Iran's air force is, shall we say, marginal.

That's exactly why the second part of Zohreh Elahian's official statement is the important one.

The main mission of Iran's navy in the event of hostilities with be to lay mines and otherwise obstruct the Persian Gulf oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway only thirty four miles (54 kilometers) at its narrowest point.

Nearly 25% of the world's oil supply flows through the Strait on a daily basis,and since the Strait, like most of the Persian Gulf is essentially a shallow basin, the actual shipping area consists of two 2-mile wide channels for inbound and outbound tanker traffic, as well as a 2-mile wide buffer zone.

What the Iranians are actually doing here is sending a message to President Barack Obama, as well as to the new Shi'ite government of Iran and other Arab governments in the Gulf.

Iran undoubtedly has its suspicions that President Obama might just try to pull off an October Surprise in 2012 to bolster his re-election campaign by attacking Iran. They also want him and surrogates like Leon Panetta and Hillary Clinton to keep the Israelis from taking out Iran's nuclear sites. The current naval exercises and accompanying threats are Iran's way of reminding President Obama that such an attack might just result in blocking the Strait and a spike in oil prices that would damage the American economy. The fact that Iran would also suffer, since its oil resources sit on the Gulf is secondary, and they're hoping that a threat to a weak and ineffectual president is going to be enough to buy time. Once Iran has nuclear weapons, they figure they'll be as untouchable as North Korea.

The other message being sent is to Iraq and the other Arab Gulf states. Simply put. it reads: "The Americans are leaving with their tails between their legs, and they won't protect you.We're the new power in the region, we can bankrupt you at our whim and you'd be unwise not acknowledge that and behave accordingly."

I'm reminded of how President Reagan acted to similar Iranian provocation back in the 1980's, but then he was a very different president.

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Turkey Issues Apology Ultimatum To Israel On Mavi Mamara As UN Report Is Leaked

Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has issued a one day ultimatum to Israel for an apology and compensation for the May, 2010 raid on the flotilla ship Mavi Mamara, which occurred when the ship was attempting to break the Israeli naval blockade on the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.

Davutoglu said that if Israel did not comply immediately, the country would "resort to Plan B."

The ultimatum was apparently sparked by the leaking of the UN's Palmer Report investigating the incident, in which nine crew members on the Mavi Mamera were killed when they attacked Israeli naval commandos attempting to board the ship. The Mavi Mamera's crew had refused to follow Israeli orders to proceed to the port of Ashdod to have their cargo inspected.

The Palmer report, which is scheduled for release tomorrow was leaked by the New York Times today. Surprisingly for a UN document, it seems to be somewhat fair to Israel.

The report found that Israel’s naval blockade of Gaza is legal and appropriate but that the way its forces boarded a Turkish-based flotilla trying to break that blockade was "excessive and unreasonable. "

The report, also found that when Israeli commandos boarded the ship they faced “organized and violent resistance from a group of passengers” and were therefore required to use force for their own protection. But the report called the force “excessive and unreasonable,” saying the loss of life was unacceptable and the Israeli military’s later treatment of passengers was abusive.

Turkey is particularly upset by the conclusion that Israel’s naval blockade is in keeping with international law and that its forces have the right to stop Gaza-bound ships in international waters, which is what happened here. That conclusion oversteps the mandate of the four-member panel appointed by the United Nations secretary general and is at odds with other United Nations decisions, Turkey argued.

The report does recommend that Israel should make “an appropriate statement of regret’ and pay compensation, but the Turks say that formula does not express sufficient remorse.

The report asserts that Israel’s sea blockade of Gaza is necessary fo r Israel's security.

“Israel faces a real threat to its security from militant groups in Gaza,” the report says in its opening paragraphs. “The naval blockade was imposed as a legitimate security measure in order to prevent weapons from entering Gaza by sea and its implementation complied with the requirements of international law.”

The report criticizes the flotilla,saying that it “acted recklessly in attempting to breach the naval blockade.” It said that while the majority of the hundreds of people aboard the six vessels had no violent intention, that could not be said of IHH, the Turkish aid group that primarily organized the flotilla. It said, “There exist serious questions about the conduct, true nature and objectives of the flotilla organizers, particularly IHH.”

The IHH were the primary element of the crew on the Mavi Mamera. There was no violence that occurred on the other five ships, all of whom followed the orders of th eIsraeli navy to proceed peacefully into Ashdod to be inspected.

Regarding the boarding of the ship, the Palmer Report also said Israel should have issued warnings closer to the moment of action and should have first turned to nonviolent options.

Hard to say exactly what they mean here. The videos clearly show that warnings were issued and the Israeli Naval commandos boarded the ship armed with paintball guns and beanbag rounds, one reason a number of them were injured. They walked into a planned ambush. In fact, the second Israeli who came aboard was shot.

Still , all in all this is a fairly balanced report for the UN, which is one reason the Turks have tried to keep it buried for months. They're reportedly furious especially over the Palmer report's legitimizing of Israel's Naval blockade.

As for the 'Plan B' the Turks are threatening to implement, it's hard to figure what that might be. Relations between Turkey and Israel have been deteriorating sharply ever since the Islamist Erdogan government took power, and there is no longer much if any military or security cooperation. Most of the pro-Israel secular elements in the Turkish military have already been purged.

Trade sanctions by Turkey might occur, but might hurt Turkey more than Israel. The Turks not only export more to Israel than they import, but much of what Turkey imports is high tech items and weaponry for its military that are harder to replace than the ready-made clothing, fabrics, and metals Turkey exports to Israel.

The only other factor on the table is Turkey's 23,000 Jews. There's no question that life could be made much more difficult for them by an angry AKP government,and Turkey has a long history of such persecution.

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