The Dance of Israeli politics - what's next?

With Ariel Sharon incapacitated, Israeli politics have taken an entirely new turn.

To get a sense of the turmoil in Israeli politics, let's recap; bear in mind that Sharon was originally re-elected over Labour's Mitzna based on his supposed hard line stance towards defeating terrorism. Instead, Sharon gave new concessions to the Palestinians and made a coalition with Labour and the Left to push through the Gaza 'disengagement', ignoring the vote of his own party for a referendum by the Israeli public on the withdrawal.

It's as if George W. Bush had been re-elected as a conservative Republican and tossed aside his own party to side with the policies of John Kerry and Teddy Kennedy.

Sharon split Israeli society over the disengagement and created dissension in the government and the armed forces by getting rid of anyone who stood in the way of withdrawing from Gaza, even when the heads of Israel's security services warned him of the risks involved.

After essentially being kicked out of Likud, Sharon then created an entirely new party, Kadima, patched together out of Sharon's supporters in the Likud and the `old guard' in the Labour Party like Shimon Peres.

Kadima was very much a one man show, and with Sharon out of the picture, the inside track for the leadership of Kadima probably belongs to interim Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, probably one of the most distrusted and disliked politicians in Israel, but one with a substantial amount of `insider' power. he has the clout to win leadership of Kadima. It remains to be seen whether Olmert can overcome his substantial negatives and win an election.

The Labour Party has moved substantially to the left, fielding Amir Peretz as its leader in what is essentially a campaign focused on undoing the privatization reforms put in place by ex-Finance Minister Netanyahu, which have resulted in a 5.6% growth for the Israeli economy. Peretz is referred to by many Israelis as `Mr. Strike' because of his role in labor unrest in Israel. Unfortunately for Peretz, many Israelis doubt his ability to govern, especially when it comes to national security.According to the Yediot poll, 40 percent of those who won't vote Peretz say it's because he wouldn't be able to handle the top job.

The real focus now is the Likud party. Benjamin Netanyahu has consolidated his leadership of the party and is campaigning based on continuing the economic reforms he put into place as finance minister and on a hard line stance against terrorism. Now that Sharon is gone, will some of the renegade Likudniks return from Kadima? Will parties like Shas, National Religious Party and National Union join with Likud in a center right coalition? And most importantly, can Netanyahu overcome his own credibility problems with the Israeli public?

Ultimately, the Freedom Fighter thinks that the 500 pound gorillas in the room are terrorism and the threat from Iran...which needs to be dealt with by March, if at all, and that leadership of the country will go to the candidate that best convinces the Israeli public that he can be counted on to deal with these issues.

That pretty much narrows it down to Netanyahu or Olmert, should Olmert win chaimanship of Kadima and IF Kadima stays together. Based on that, I think the election is Netanyahu's to lose.