Is Assad going down for the count?

The UN commission's request to question the Syrian president himself about the murder of former Lebanese premier Hariri seems to indicate that Basher Assad is in deep trouble.

There's no easy way out. If Assad declines the UN's request, he may be facing isolation and chrushing sanctions. If he and Foreign Minister Farouk a-Shara are questioned, discrepancies between their testimonies and what the investigation commission has already learned could have exactly the same result.

And the rats are already leaving the sinking ship, as the recent defections of Retired General Ali Duba, known as father of Syrian intelligence and loyal aide of Presidents Assad father and son to London and the defection and blunt charges voiced from the safety of Paris by former Syrian vice president Khalam Haddam last Friday show.

The thing is, Assad had miscalculated from day one in a way that his father never would have.

Basher was the accidental President, some might remember, due to his charismatic brother Basil's untimely death in a car accident, and their uncle Rifat's getting on the wrong side of Basher's father Hafez Assad.

Kind of like what the `Godfather' would have been like if Fredo, the weak son, had taken the Corleone syndicate over rather than Sonny or Michael.

Hafez at least made a show of pretending to be a moderate, sending a token force in the Gulf War to help kick Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait. Basher had different ideas.

First, he allied with Saddam Hussein, at a time whenthe Iraqi dictator was weaker than he had been at the time of the Gulf War and on the wrong side of the Americans again. Then, he persisted in treating Lebanon like his private fiefdom, not understanding that the days when Damascus could murder prominent figures like president-elect Bashir Jemayel or Rafik Hariri were over. On top of all that , he managed to antagonize France, Syria's long tme ally-and believe me, for a homicidal Arab dictator to antagonize the French takes some doing.

And apparently, if one believes deposed vice president Abdul-Halim Khaddam's testimony and his interview on al-Arabiya, Assad has ticked off a lot of indispensible people in his own immediate ruling circle. Khaddam, you remember, was a rare representative of Syria's Sunni majority in the predominantly Alawite ruling cartel in Syria.

Assad has some cards to play - the Russians are still willing to sell Syria arms, and Iran is still friendly (as are the Saudis, clandestinely)but his overall options don't look good. Assad increasingly appears to be someone who not only is on the chopping block internationally but who's now even having trouble keeping his own house in order domestically.

It looks bad for Assad...and that's good!