A defeat for the west? Probably.

After hours of diplospeak, the UN eventually did what it does best. Thanks to France and the Arab League,it came up with a watered down, puerile ceasefire resolution designed to save and protect Hezbollah and please Iran. What's more, by doing do, the UN effectively dunged on its own prior resolution as it proved once again that not only isn't it part of the solution...it's definitely part of the problem.

The vote was unanimous, including the US..which reflects the widespread international criticism of the Bush Administration (especially from the Arabs and the EU) for stonewalling and the Bush Administration's realization that Ehud Olmert was unlikely
to get the job done in the time allowed him.

Here's what the boys at the UNSC came up with:

Instead of a `robust peacekeeping force' approved under Chapter 7 as in the first draft with the ability to use military force for imposing a ceasefire,disarming Hezbollah or creating a buffer zone in South Lebanon, the 15,000 mobilized Lebanese Army troops will move in to South Lebanon plus the 2,000 member UNFIL observer force with no authorty to do anything but act as observers and maybe make the odd cup of coffee for their Hezbollah pals.. I wonder...will the Lebanese troops give those uniforms to Hezbollah before or after they move in?

Another 15,000 UNFIL observers are to move in at a later date...but the IDF will be made to withdraw "in parallel' with the Lebanese forces as they come in. So the Israeli forces will be made to pull out before those new UNFIL observers get to South Lebanon..if they ever do.

There's absolutely no mechanism created to enforce an embargo on arms supplies from Iran and Syria or any other foreign source...so Hezbollah can be rearmed easily.

Since the idea of an effective `robust' UN force mentioned in the first draft was ditched, there's nobody to enforceme UN Security Council resolution 1559 to disarm Hezbollah...which means it won't happen.

While the preamble mentions the "unconditional release" of the two Israeli soldiers whose July 12 abduction started the war,there are no tangible steps or requirements that Hezbollah do so. Count on them being sent to Iran or Syria as soon as the IDF is safely out of the way.

While Israel is allowed to continue "defensive operations' while they're still in Lebanon, the cute language surrounding the "cessation of hostilities”"is loose enough for Hezbollah to continue fighting and claim it is conducting "legitimate national Lebanese resistance" rather than offensive operations. Nasrallah said as much when he stated that Hezbollah would continue `operations' untill the IDF leaves Lebanon.


The UN and the `International community' will rush billions of dollars worth of aid to Lebanon and rebuild the country's infrastructure with no conditions and very little oversight. Israel, with a third of the country beseiged, heavy damage to Safed, Haifa and the north of the country and over a million refugees, many of them homeless will foot the bill itself.

In other words, none of Israel's war aims in Lebanon were accomplished. Hezbollah has been severely damaged but has not been removed from South Lebanon and can claim `victory', the missile threat to Israel has not been removed, the two captured IDF soldiers were not recovered and the IDF's image as a deterrent suffered a blow.

What's more, Iran was able to divert attention form its nuclear weapons program and has enhanced prestige in the Muslim world for standing up to the Zionist/Crusaders.

Lebanon AKA Hezboolah has already agreed to these terms; the Israeli cabinet will vote on this Sunday and will probably be arm twisted into doing the same.

The real responsibility for the way this war was conducted and the disappointing results can mostly be placed at the feet of the ineffectual and indecisive leadership of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

He consistently overrode his military advisors and even his defense minister to conduct this war in a limited and slipshod fashion, refusing to allow the all out offensive the IDF begged for.

I doubt he will be in power much longer - which is the only positive thing to come out of all this. He came into power by accident, and now he's been revealed as the incompetant political hack he always was.

Ironically, now that they've been released to do the job that needed doing and were able to mount an offensive in force without the Olmert imposed handcuffs, the IDF seems to have done quite well.

They're in a race against time thanks to the ceasefire, but are proceeding until it is enforced on the ground – if and when that happens. It might not, at least until the IDF can show more tangible results.

The IDF has already succeeded in encircling Hezbollah’s 1,500-strong force in a large swathe stretching from the Litani River in the north, to Tyre in the southwest. They have been cut off from reinforcements and re-supply from the north by the IDF advances.

This is basically how Israel handled the PLO inthe 1982 Lebanon War. pushing the PLO forces out of South Lebanon up to Beirut and then trapping them in a siege.

This time, the Israeli troops are pushing Hezbollah into the Tyre enclave that also encompasses the Palestinian refugee camps of Rashidiya and Bourj al-Shamali, in order to surround them there. There won't be time for the IDF to take out Hezbollah bases in central and northern Lebanon (the Bek'aa Valley, for instance) unless the ceasefire breaks down. Those will have to be left for the Air Force to destroy, if possible.

Outside of the Tyre trap, the IDF with its new expanded forces has been advancing north from Israel’s northernmost town of Metulla towards the plain of Nabatea, north of the Litani River, taking the strategic Christian town of Marjayun en route.These units now control the village of Blat next to the Litani River – a vantage point for fire control of the Nabatean plain to the west, and Hasbaya to the east. The IDF has also captured Qantara and reached the southern bank of the Litani.

This sort of mobile war is what the IDF does best. Imagine what they could have done if they had been allowed to fight in force form the war's beginning.

Let's hope that either the Israeli cabinet grows a spine and rejects the UN resoluton as it stands, or that the IDF can somehow pull off a miracle and snatch victory from defeat before they run out of time.

Stay tuned...