Prospective Democratic nominee Senator Hillary Clinton got a double shot of bad news today...
First off, it appears that Black voters have been shifting support away from her and towards Senator Barack Obama.
According to the latest WAPO-ABC News poll, Clinton is still the front runner. But her margin over Obama was sliced in half during the past month largely because of Obama's growing support among Black voters.
In January when she announced her candidacy, Clinton led the Democratic field with 41 percent. Obama was second at 17 percent, Edwards was third at 11 percent and former vice president Al Gore, who so far isn't running, was fourth at 10 percent.
The latest poll put Clinton at 36 percent, Obama at 24 percent, Gore at 14 percent and Edwards at 12 percent. with Gore out of the picture, Clinton now leads Barack Obama 43 percent to 27 percent, with Edwards third at 14 percent. This poll was done Sunday night,February 25th.
The changes among White voters were negligible, but changes among black Democrats were dramatic. In December and January Post-ABC News polls, Clinton led Obama among Blacks by 60 percent to 20 percent. In the new poll, Obama aced the Senator from New York among blacks, 44 percent to 33 percent.
It's early days, but this is significant. While Black votes alone won't do it, it's extremely difficult for any Democrat to get nominated, let alone elected without a sizeable chunk of the Black vote, one of the few core constituencies the Democrats have left. This is going to be a real horse race.
Mrs. Clinton received a double whammy today when it was revealed that she made a leetle, teensy weensy error in the legally mandated annual Senate financial disclosure forms and failed to mention the family charity she operates with former president Bill Clinton.
The foundation has enabled the Clintons to write off more than $5 million from their taxable income since 2001, while dispensing $1.25 million in charitable contributions.
With numbers like that, I guess the main `charity' was Seneator Clinton and her husband's bank account!
This is a blatant violation of the law, by the way...but after the WAPO, which broke the story called Senator Clinton for`comment' she hurried to amend her declaration. Just an oversight, really, about $3.75 million worth.
On the other side of the aisle, prospective GOP nominee Rudy Giuliani had a great day, as the same WAPO poll I mentioned earlier showed him substantially ahead.
Giuliani now holds a 2 to 1 advantage over McCain among Republicans, according to the poll, more than tripling his margin of a month ago.According to the poll, the principal reason was a shift among White evangelical Protestants, who now clearly favor Giuliani over McCain. Giuliani is up 44% to Senator McCain's 21%, with Mitt Romney at about 4%.
For a little insight, check out John Podhoretz's column today, `Why So Many Righties Are Rooting For Rudy'.
Ultimately, the War on Jihad is going to trump all the other issues. And the way things stack up now, the GOP is looking for someone to lead it and win it....while the Democrats, lurching Left, appear to be looking for someone to pretend it doesn't exist.
unless there has been an update, mccain was not planning on going to CPAC. there may have been an update on this i am unaware of.
ReplyDeleteif mccain is not going to talk to conservatives there, when is he going to converse with them?
as for rudy, i think he is starting to play to the lefties.
his recent comments that the USA is not a militaristic nation will play well in riyadh.......but not with this jacksonian.
reviewing our history, in light of washington's birthdate this week past, indicates considerable use of the musket. and as we live in a jungle, like it or not, we should not be militaristic unless we are threatened. and we are being threatened. therefore i don't see rudy's comments relevant to present day.
Hi louie,
ReplyDeleteI think what Giuliani meant was that we are not an imperialist nation.
AT least I hope so!
As Podhoretz said in his column, Giuliani has a reputation ( unlike our current president) of speaking moderately but of being absolutely relentless in achieving his objectives..so I'm cautiously optomistic.
Plus, he's the only one of the candidates I know of who ever refused Saudi money - and in a rather insulting way at that!
not to belabor the point, this is the quote i read:
ReplyDelete"We have to say to the rest of the world, ‘America doesn't like war,'" Mr. Giuliani said. "America is not a military country. We've never been a militaristic country," he added, saying national leaders have fallen into an "analytical warp" by defining the battle as a war on terrorism and not, as he deemed it, a "war of the terrorists against us."
a reading of the last sentence sounds as though rudy has been lurking at Joshuapundit.......
and i still don't know if mccain is going to CPAC or not?????
I think that was a pretty intelligent comment by Giuliani..at least he sees that much clearly.
ReplyDeleteIt's only a step away from calling it a War on Jihad, hmmmm? YTou'll know we're serious about this when the name changes.
I think McCain is going to drop out fairly soon...maybe by Labor Day.
More interesting for me, from a `horserace' perspective was the defection of a large part of the black vote to Barack Hussein Obama.
Since the Democrats have no hope of winning the White House without at least 80% of the black vote, it's obvious to me that barring something crazy happening, Obama will be on the ticket in some capacity, likely as VP.
I think McCain is going to drop out fairly soon...
ReplyDeleteis this you??