Turkey's ruling AK Party supporters celebrated the early results of the national elections as the Islamist AK Party won nearly 50 percent of the vote. This was a much stronger than expected showing.
On the other hand,there are some wild cards on the table. First there is the army,which views itself as the ultimate guarantor of Turkey's secular state and has ousted four cabinets in 50 years, most recently the Islamist predecessor of the AK Party in 1997.
I personally don't see the army intervening unless the Erdogan government crosses some real red lines and attempts to create an Iran-style Islamic republic.That may be in the cards,but not just yet.
Second,there's the opposition in parliament - which is now much more united than it was.
If the Erdogan government finds a compromise candidate for president and continues to tread carefully to keep a consensus, that will be one thing. If Erdogan succumbs to hubris and attempts to throw his weight around, as he did before the emergency elections, that will be something quite different.
Another key point will be whether the Turks increase their attacks on Kurdistan in northern Iraq, especially if they make a grab for Kirkuk, less than 100 miles form Turkey's borders.
At some point, things a re going to come to a head one way or another. For now, one thing's certain - Turkey has definitely made a move toward Islamism.
Dear "Freedom Fighter",
ReplyDeleteyour rather negative outlook on Turkey's future has been included in a "Best of the Blogs" article on the Atlantic Community. You are of course invited to comment and maybe subject to other, more optimistic views with regard to the AKP's success.
Check it out: Turkey After the Elections: Bloggers See a Bright Future
Best,
Tobias