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Friday, July 25, 2008

Iran Officially Ends 'Cooperation' With IAEA


Iran announced today that it was ending it's 'cooperation' with the UN's atomic watchdpg agency, the IAEA after the agency actually accused Iran of hiding its efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

Among other things, the IAEA formally asked Iran to explain drafts of plans to refit missiles with nuclear warheads, explosives tests that could be used to develop a nuclear detonator, links between the Iranian military and civilians in their nuclear program ( Iran's nuclear facilities are run by the Revolutionary Guard) and a blueprint showing how to mold uranium metal into the shape of warheads.

The response to this was announcement by Iranian Vice President Gholam Reza Aghazadeh that Iran would end its 'cooperation'. He's also the head of Iran's atomic energy agency.

Part of what's going on is the endgame to an investigation on whether Iran hid its efforts to manufacture nuclear weapons launched bythe IAEA over a year ago under an agreement between the IAEA and Iran.

Apparently the mullahs don't like the way the investigation is going:


Back then, IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei hailed it as "a significant step forward" that - if honored by Iran - would fill in the missing pieces of Iran's nuclear jigsaw puzzle; nearly two decades of atomic work, all of it clandestine until revealed by dissidents nearly six years ago. And he brushed aside suggestions that Iran was using the work plan as a smoke screen to deflect attention away from its continued defiance of a UN Security Council ban on enrichment.

But the plan ran into trouble just months after it was put into operation. Deadline after deadline was extended because of Iranian foot-dragging. The probe, originally to have been completed late last year, spilled into the first months of 2008, and then beyond.

Iran remains defiant, saying evidence from the US and other board members purportedly backing the allegations was fabricated, and on Thursday Aghazadeh appeared to signal that his country was no longer prepared even to discuss the issue with the Vienna-based IAEA.

Investigating such allegations "is outside the domain of the agency," he said. Any further queries on the issue "will be dealt with in another way," he added, without going into detail. The agency's last Iran report in May reflected ElBaradei's frustration. It said Iran may be withholding information on whether it tried to make nuclear arms, in language described by one senior UN official as unique in its direct criticism of Teheran.

Aghazadeh's comments appeared to jibe with those of diplomats familiar with the probe who have told The Associated Press that the IAEA has run into a dead end.

One senior diplomat on Thursday attributed Teheran's intransigence in part to anger about multimedia presentations by IAEA Deputy Director General Olli Heinonen to the agency's 35 board members based on US and other intelligence on the alleged secret weapons work. He - like the others - demanded anonymity because his information was confidential.


This latest tantrum by the mullahs illustrates the prime conundrum the UN finds itself in. It's obvious to anyone that Iran broke the nuclear proliferation treaty it signed, and that they're actively seeking nuclear weapons. They've also made no secret of the fact that nothing and no one is going to stop them from developing nuclear weapons and ICBMs - Ahmadinejad just made another statement to the effect that Iran woul dnot 'retreat one ioata'- and they've already made significant progress in this regard.

What, if anything is the West prepared to do about this?

Sanctions have largely been a joke, because the Russians and the Chinese either keep watering them down or ignoring them and the EU makes far too much money trading with Iran to get behind anything significant. Meanwhile, the US appears to be mainly concerned about the short term benefits of quiet in Iraq and elswhere during the rest of the Bush presidency and is willing to let the status quo go on, while the centrifuges spin merrily along and Iran bolsters its air missile defenses and conventional military.

Again, I've heard significant rumours that there is a semi-formal understanding between the Bush Administration and Iran: in exchange for quiet and a graceful exit in Iraq, a ceiling on oil prices and an end to Iran's agitation within OPEC to end oil trading in dollars, the US was willing to cede control of Lebanon to Iran, take the US military option of a strike on Iran's nuclear facility off the table and pledge not to aid or abet the Israelis from carrying one out.

Based on what's been going on so far, it seems like it might be a plausible deal for the Bush Administration to have made, and from Iran's standpoint, they would have gotten a lot more then they gave up...plus, they have the possibility of dealing with a President Obama in a few months, with all that entails.

Stay tuned...



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