Sleepwalking Towards The Apocalypse

A huge deal was made over the West's 'sweetened' offer to Iran to halt it's headlong rush to obtain nuclear weapons.

The Iranians were offered the right to peaceful nuclear energy and the right to have reactors, even though they forfeited those rights when the U.N. found Iran to be in material breach of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty it signed.

They were offered an end to sanctions and considerable trade and financial incentives and president Bush even offered to negotiate directly with Iran and freeze all sanctions provided they agreed to a temporary freeze of all nuclear activity while the negotiations were going on.

So..what was the Mullah's response? Well, essentially this:



What Iran sent back to the UN 5 plus one - the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany- was what the Iranians playfully described as a "none paper" which was their way of referring to the usual diplospeak for an unofficial negotiating document or “nonpaper.”

It was so blatantly a scam and a dodge that even Sergei Kisliak, the Russian deputy foreign minister, couldn't help chuckling when he read it - those wild and crazy Persians! Good cash customers though...

The Iranians reportedly didn't even offer any concrete responses to the West's proposals. Instead, they proposed more talks and negotiations about talks.

“The paper calls for a huge exercise in talking,” one senior European official was quoted as saying. “If you were to try to implement it, it would take a minimum of several years.”

Which would suit the Mullahs just fine, of course.

What they proposed was at least three more meetings with Javier Solana, the European Union foreign policy chief,plus at least four meetings at the foreign ministers’ level, provided all sanctions were halted against Iran.

They also want no discussion or even mention of any limits on Iran’s production of enriched uranium.

Iran also wants their nuclear issues to be dealt with by Mohammed El Baradi and the IAEA,not the UN Security Council, which tells you a lot about El Baradi.

So that was the result of yet another craven offer by the UN and Condi Rice. The Mullahs essentially put out a document that ranged between putting the Big Six on and telling them to get bent.

Even worse the Mullahs know they're on pretty solid ground.

The first reaction from the EU after this blatant insult? It no uncertain terms,the European Union says it won't support military action against Iran. Instead,they're open to more 'talks' just like this.

So, apparently,are two of Obama's chief foreign policy advisors, Brent Scowcroft and Zbigniew Brzezinski, ex NSA adviser to President Jimmy Carter:

Brzezinski said he fears that if negotiations break down between now and the end of the year, some in the Bush administration might believe "it justifies doing something."

Both former advisers said they think both Washington and Tehran are internally divided on how to proceed, making progress difficult before the next U.S. president takes office. But they said that President Bush's sending Undersecretary of State William J. Burns to the most recent negotiations with Iran was a positive step.

"It brings the U.S. solidly in with the Europeans and the Russians," Scowcroft said.

Oh,I'll just bet it does.

Of course, the real game is probably already being played behind the scenes,I think. Several of my notorious little birdies have mentioned the possibility of a quid pro quo between Iran and the US that explains a number of things, like US acquiescence to Iran and Hezbollah taking over Lebanon and marginalizing the US backed Siniora government,the sudden decrease of the price of crude oil,increased diplomatic overtures to Syria and Iran and the drying up of supplies and men for Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army in Iraq.

It could very well be that the US has a loose quid pro quo with Iran to exchange a graceful exit in Iraq, a ceiling on crude prices and continued trading of oil in dollars in exchange for de facto Iranian control of Lebanon and Iraq after we leave, and a guarantee of no US military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities or aid or assistance to the Israelis in pulling one off.

This would be the classic realpolitik bargain, and it could very well be reality.

All that aside, the Iranians will see the non-muscular response of the West to their calculated insult on a "none paper" to be weakness and rank appeasement, and it will encourage them to even greater audacity and aggression.

Ever since 1979 and the Mullah's takeover of the American embassy and the successful imprisonment of American hostages every aggression by Iran or its proxies against the Great Satan has been met either by retreat or appeasement.

There's a historical precedent that shows where this type of cowardice and appeasement leads..to death and ashes.