I had an e-mail exchange with an extremely reliable source of mine within the Palestinian Authority government who provided a unique window into how they plan to proceed.
According to him, the PA has been going back and forth with Obama over a resolution they want to bring to the UN Security Council condemning Israeli construction in Judea, Samaria (AKA the West Bank) and East Jerusalem and demanding that it be halted.
The way the 'Palestinians' see it, this is a test of their clout in the UN, and if its successful, they can then proceed to a UNSC resolution recognizing 'Palestinian' statehood along the pre-1967 lines.
The problem is that the Obama Administration is reluctant to go along with the program, even though they agree with and identify with the Palestinians ideologically.
As recently as yesterday, Hillary Clinton publicly warned the 'Palestinians' that The UN isn't the place to resolve the Israeli - 'Palestinian' conflict.
"We continue to believe strongly that New York is not the place to resolve the longstanding conflict and outstanding issues between the Israelis and the Palestinians," Clinton said. "We do not think that that is a productive path for the Palestinians or anyone to pursue."
The reason for the reluctance by Obama is obvious. If the US were to abstain or vote for such a resolution, not only would the administration risk severe political damage at home but would be directly abrogating both the Road Map and the Oslo Accords which the US is a signatory to. Both agreements state that negotiations may only be conducted by the two parties and forbids any of the parties from trying and circumvent negotiations in this manner.
A UN Resolution targeting Israeli sovereignty over Jerusalem and the areas of Judea and Samaria it has always made known that it intended to keep under any peace agreement could also have the effect of getting the Israelis to simply abort the whole process, thus handing Obama another foreign policy defeat.
The 'Palestinians', being sure that they're not going to suffer any consequences for it, are going to squeeze Obama anyway. They plan to deliberately use as much as possible the exact same language in the upcoming resolution that Secretary Clinton, President Obama and their drones at the State Department have used to voice the Obama Administration's support for prohibiting Jews and Jews only from building homes, schools and infrastructure in Judea and Samaria and in East Jerusalem.
The Palestinians have long been adamant that they are unwilling to negotiate a single one of their demands, including all of Judea and Samaria, half of Jerusalem, the creation of 500,000 Jewish refugees and the right to swamp what's left of Israeli with genocidal Arab 'refugees' afterwards.
Since they're unwilling to negotiate anything, the entire 'Palestinian' strategy is geared towards delegitimizing and isolating Israel, doing what they can to alter the facts on the ground while they have a friendly president in office.
According to my correspondent, the 'Palestinians' are trying to 'leverage' ( his word) the Obama Administration to issue a formal policy statement that all the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria are illegal and that the US supports a 'Palestinian' state on the pre-1967 lines, including East Jerusalem in exchange for not going to the UN, and in fact both the Palestinian Authority’s political adviser, Nimer Hammad and Mahmoud Abbas indirectly confirmed this, with Abbas saying in Brazil last week that the 'Palestinian' draft used the same language used by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on 'settlements', “so we don’t see why the US would veto it.”
The resolution is supposed to be discussed at the next UNSC meeting January 19, and the Obama Administration has three choices - go along with the 'Palestinian' squeeze play and issue the statement they want, make a choice to support,abstain or veto the 'Palestinian' resolution or have Susan Rice, our UN Ambassador, water down the language of the resolution to the point where it becomes meaningless.
As my source mentioned, if this goes through, a 'Palestinian' resolution unilaterally declaring statehood on the pre-'67 lines will be on the table soon as well..and probably a demand by the 'Palestinians' for UN peacekeepers to attempt to enforce it, ala' UNFIL.
As I said a long time ago, the Russians were entirely correct that the UN was setting a dangerous precedent for international order by formally recognizing Kossovo's declaration of independence in violation of its own UN Resolution 1244 and enforcing a unilateral settlement on the Serbs without their agreement.
The 'Palestinians' were taking notes.
UPDATE: The plot thickens...The 'Palestinians' apparently mean to push this to the limit, and the Obama Administration's efforts to talk them out of it have apparently not been successful so far.
No less than Saeb Erekat, chief 'Palestinian ' negotiator and the one-time right fork of Yasser Arafat's tongue announced publicly that “The talks [with Israel] have ended." Considering that the 'Palestinians' have already announced they are no longer bound by the Oslo Accords and are refusing to negotiate any of their demands, it's hard to see that there is to talk about.
The resolution is supposed to be formally put to the UN Security Council tomorrow, January 19th. So the Obama Administration is going to have to make a choice.
One signal as to where things may be going is the fact that the Obama Administration allowed the 'Palestinians' fly their flag in Washington DC for the first time...at the PLO offices of all places. I'm sure the families of Americans like Leon Klinghoffer, 10-year-old Koby Mandel and the two US diplomats who were tortured to death by Arafat's PLO thugs did not properly appreciate the gesture.
I said that the next Middle East war will be Obama's war and I was right.Everyone forgets that Israel will not go along especially if the UN is involved. I hope Beinart et al are happy they have supported a policy that has emboldened the enemies and murderers of Jews. They are no better than those that betrayed their fellow Jews to the Nazis. Next summer is going to be very very bad, if it takes that long.
ReplyDeleteLets see the Pals. I hope that they declare their state and start to be responsible for something.They forget that they depend on Israel for everything.
ReplyDeleteThe Palestinians want everything handed to them on a silver platter. So far, they've had their way. Too bad they have been duped by their leaders (Arafat, Abbas, et al) and their friendly neighbours like Egypt, Jordan, Saudis, etc. The Obama administration will not be helping the PA by buying into their games. With all the millions of dollars of aid given to them annually, and all of their friends, from the UN and pretty much every country in the world including aid from Israel, their situation will only deteriorate into that of a spoiled child who is locked in his room due to punishment for bad behaviour; a room full of toys, internet, games and high def TV. He thinks he's outsmarted his parents but he is truly never happy, never learns his lesson, never grows up and ends up with a deep resentment of his parents who continue to lavish the latest high tech toys on him.
ReplyDeleteOh, I think the situation deteriorated a long time ago, and frankly, I blame successive Israeli Labor governments, Yitzhak Rabin and Bill Clinton.
ReplyDeleteAnyone who thought Yasser Arafat and his PLO mafia were going to be fit people to lead a state and live in peace next to their neighbors should have sought serious psychiatric help. I said this back when everyone was snorting Oslo toot up their collective noses and the subsequent two decades have only made it more evident.
The Israelis made a tactical mistake in the years since 1967 that they continue to make..not delineating their borders unilaterally and moving all non-Israeli Arabs on the other side of it.
This should have happened immediately after the famous 'four no's' of Khartoum when the Arab nations made their positions plain, and it's what's going to happen eventually anyway.
Same thing in Gaza..when Israel returned the Sinai peninsula to Egypt,( which may end up being another strategic error anyway)they insisted on keeping Gaza - and then gave it to the Pals anyway, where it wound up as Hamasistan.
Hillel's famous dictum applies here.
Regards,
Rob