The Obama Administration's cutting loose from Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak has not been without significant cost when it comes to opening up a rift between the US and its Arab allies...and they were already fairly upset with Obama because of his non-policy on Iran.
The perception among our allies in the region is that the U.S. "threw Mubarak under the bus," a senior U.S. official said. "It is fair to say there is definitely concern."
Both the Saudis, the Palestinian Authority and the leaders of the U.A.E. sent public and private messages of support to Mubarak and his vice president, Egypt's former intelligence chief Omar Suleiman. The messages call for Mubarak and Suleiman to oversee any transition and to ensure that the Muslim Brotherhood does not come to power.
Jordan sent a similar, private signal to Mubarak, according to my sources.
By cutting loose Mubarak so precipitously, the Obama Administration sent a message not only to other US-friendly Arab governments, who, whatever their problems have at least supported America in the region for the sake of their own self protection if nothing else. It also sent a message to Syria, Iran and Iran's proxies in the region like Hamas and Hezbollah that the US will not back up its allies, that it's commitments are not to be trusted, and that it is no longer the 'strong horse' in the region.
Israel, our chief ally in the region received the same message, but with an added twist.
Obama has allied himself with the Egyptian opposition, which includes the Muslim Brotherhood as the most organized and numerous contingent. And not only has the Muslim Brotherhood already stated that it will abrogate the Israel-Egypt peace treaty of thirty years standing, but its Palestinian branch, Hamas, is openly genocidal.
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the legitimization of Hamas by the Obama Administration and the EU was one of the end results sought here.All in the name of freedom and democracy of course. After all, if the US can support and deal directlyl with an Islamist, Muslim Brotherhood dominated Egyptian government, why not with Hamas?
From the Israeli standpoint,a deal with the Palestinian Authority was already problematic because of the Palestinian's refusal to negotiate any of their demands. Now, with any US guarantees the Obama Administration might make to Israel subject to the whim of the Arab street and with the Muslim Brotherhood in the picture, it will be seen as suicidal.
If the Obama administration had any hopes of convincing Israel to make additional territorial concessions for peace, they're pretty much dead in the water.
No comments:
Post a Comment