Saudi Arabia's al-Watan is reporting that Syrian dictator Basher Assad has moved his family and a select group of associates to a warship off Syria’s coast, where they're is being guarded by Russian naval forces. Reports are mixed about whether Assad is with them or whether he's still on the Syrian mainland. Some reports have him commuting to the mainland by helicopter, having lost confidence in elements of his security detail.
What this amounts to is political asylum for Assad by Russia, should he flee the country.
So far the civil war between Syria's Shi'ites, Alawites and other Assad loyalists and the Sunni, Muslim Brotherhood dominated Sunni insurgency has cost well over 60,000 lives, with numerous atrocities being committed by both sides.
Russia currently has a flotilla of five Russian warships laden with hundreds of troops deployed at the Syrian port of Tartus, Russia's chief naval base in the Middle East.
If Assad actually has taken asylum aboard the ship, it is fairly serious and a sign the endgame is approaching. if he merely got his family and close associates out of harm's way, then the end isn't near just yet.
In the meantime, the Russians continue to defend Assad, and have endorsed a speech he made last week calling for an end to hostilities, national elections and the formation of a new government.
I doubt the insurgents were impressed.Especially since they have important allies now like President Barack Obama.
Its unlikely that Mr. Assad faces any chance of being ousted. As long as the Russians back him, there is no possibilty of his overthrow. The Russian military forces are the most professional, best led, best trained, best equiped, and most technologically savy forces on earth.
ReplyDeleteWe've heard things like his ouster being imminent from the media before. These turn out to be false. I think the media would like him gone, as long as America does not play a large role, as long as American interests are not advanced, Russian interests aren't harmed and preferably advanced, the Muslim Brotherhood is advanced, and Israeli interests are undermined. These are but a few factors the media looks at.
I think the instability helps Russia. They gain from high oil prices. All of this instability in the ME helps keep the price high. Regardless what happens here Russia is not about to allow their interests to be harmed.
Respectfully, I would not put much stock in any report that says Assad is in trouble. With that said, he may very well be in trouble bu this will be decided by the Russians and no one else. If they decide he's done, he's done. There's nothing American can do but waste resources.
Finally, whether or not the "insurgents" are impressed or not will have little to do with any thing Barack Obama says or does. America's influence in this as well as its ability to actually influence this situation is minimal at best. As such, they are not paying much attention to him. Furthermore, if I'm aware the US is no match for Russia, they are aware of this too.
America's best approach would be to make it clear to the Russians that we CAN and WILL defend ourselves. the best way to do this will be to upgrade and expand our nuclear arsenal and the means to deliver it. This has the advantage of being less expensive than what we are currelntly doing. Since our major allies possess lopsided conventional edges over us, the increased nuclear weapons capabilities will help us neutralize this edge.
Beyond this every effort should be made to avoid actions that migh provoke the Russians, Chinese, or the other major world powers. So far, we don't seem to be on the right track. Our current efforts might be somewhat adequate for defense but pose no offensive threat to these countries. Since defense alone cannot win a war and we lack the offensive capabilities to prevail and due to our massive national debt, lack of infrastructure, or scientific know how there is no conceivable way to develop these capabilities in any time frame to make a difference, we need a change in strategy and tactics pronto!!
Its a pity we don't have military leaders who are more interested in national security than they are in getting promotions. What good is a promotion if you're dead?!!? America's leaders have gone stark raving mad!! God help us all!!!