As I predicted earlier, reports of Israel `losing' the war are a tad premature, and the Israelis had a tactical surprise for Hezbollah up their sleeves.
The IDF used helicopters to drop a large IDF force at the Shiite village of Shraifa just west of Hizballah’s stronghold at Baalbek in the Bek'aa Valley. They now have Hezbollah's Bek'aa Valley commander Muhammad Yazbek fighting for his life in heavy clashes around the Dar al Hikmeh Hospital, which Hezbollah converted into a headquarters.
The IAF hit numerous Hezbollah positions in the Bek'aa valley with heavy airstrikes, especially Hermel, where Sheik Nasrallah and his command staff are reportedly hiding. And from the Mediterranean, Israel naval artillery pounded Hizballah rocket sites on the Lebanese shore.
I wouldn't be surprised to see an additional Israeli assault on Tyre, which would ramp up the pressure on Hezbollah considerably.
Taking out the Hezbollah strongholds in the Bek'aa would not only trap the Hezbollah fighters in the south,now being pushed back to the Litani by Israeli armor...it effectively cuts off Hezbollah's lifeline to Syria, which is all that has been keeping them going.
And even that lifeline is in danger as the IAF continues to take out anything with wheels they see on the roads.
In what is likely to be perceived as a potential escalation, Bashar Assad told the Syrian Army to raise its readiness and they have reportedly been sent to deploy. But I think it's unlikely that Syria will get directly involved. If the Syrians re-enter Lebanon, the IDF can take out the Syrian military forces with a fair degree of ease.
But I doubt Syria wants to tangle with the IDF...that's what Hezbollah is for. They are Syria's ground force to fight Israel...and beyond them it gets very skimpy very quickly.
Syria will exercise some self preservation and stay out of this one...and fight down to the last Hezbollah soldier.
Another prediction..look for increasing pea hen volume screams by the UN, the EU and the Arab league for a ceasefire.
Perhaps...but I seriously doubt the Assad regime wants to take on Israel just now. They won't go to war for Hezbollah. Israel has already blown up several trucks attempting resupply missions on the Syrian side of the border.
ReplyDeleteIt's also important to remember that Syria, a Sunni country is ruled by Shiite Alawis, of whom Assad is one.
Lebanon map
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