The New Year is barely upon us and the usual suspects are pushing the 'Obama can't lose in 2012' meme. The source is always some Journolista Obamabot on the Left or, as in this case,some GOP establishment hack who used to work on the McCain campaign, one of the most inept in living memory.
The message is the same too..looky at all the supposedly Red States Obama won in 2008! That, together with the black vote and the mighty, all encompassing (and of course, monolithic) Hispanic vote will turn the tide for the Mighty Obama. Observe ye and despair, o ye Republicans...you better vote for amnesty!
Myra Adams, an ex-McCain campaign functionary sees Arizona, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada as problematic for the GOP 'due to changing Hispanic demographics and Hispanics’ group loyalty to President Obama and the Democratic Party in general'.
Adams writes, "Assume for a moment (and this is a HUGE assumption) that what I call the “Red Rogue States” of Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana that turned Obama blue in 2008 will shake off the magic fairy dust he sprinkled over them and return to the red Republican barn in 2012. These five “must win” states total 86 electoral votes, bringing our generic un-named Republican presidential candidate up to 266."
The 266 number comes from these states, plus the states McCain managed to win in '08.
She conveniently forgets Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin in her analysis, all three of whom are trending red and just electing new GOP senators and a slew of new GOP congressmen..a total of 35 electoral votes.
She also conveniently forgets that Hispanics in Florida are mostly Cubans, who vote Republican and just elected Marco Rubio to the Senate along with a huge batch of Republican congressmen, and that the Arizona immigration law is hugely popular in that state. And she credits the rest of the Hispanic vote with being too stupid not to see that a continuing flow of illegal aliens puts their own jobs, wages, tax rates and access to services in jeopardy.
She also fails to take into account that the US economy is not likely to be much better by 2012, or that a lot of democrats are disaffected after seeing what they voted for in action, or that people simply know a lot more about Obama than they did in 2008. Or how unpopular ObamaCare is, or what affect the investigations of what's been going on the last two years are likely to have. So that 'magic fairy dust' she speaks of is going to be in pretty short supply come 2012.
Here's how the numbers add up.Take the 173 electoral votes McCain got in 2008, all of them deep Red states unlikely to change. Add 11 to that, for the new electoral votes in Red states provided by the last census, to get to 184. Add in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana for another 86 electoral votes, a total of 270, already enough to win. And then add in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, another 25 for good measure. That's a total of 295 electoral votes without New Mexico, Colorado or Nevada,all of whom are still on the table.
Of course, a lot depends on whom the GOP nominee is, and how th enew Congress performs in DC and whether they dismantle Obama's agenda, which is what trhey were elected do. If they don't , and the candidate is another establishment yawner like McCain who's too self-absorbed and PC to go after Obama on his many weak points, that's one thing.
But if it's a bright, aggressive candidate with a knack for turning a phrase who can articulate conservatism and a clear program for turning the country around while attacking Obama on his record, that's something very different.
A certain housewife in Wasilla come to mind...
Here's another reality. The US likes to reelect its incumbent Presidents. If the economy turns around and people feel secure in their homes, Obama will be reelected. If everything remains about the same over the next two years, Obama is history.It is simple economics.
ReplyDeleteWhile I do like Sarah Palin very much, I also do not think she can win. She is George Bush in a skirt, but misogyny is very widespread in this country.I can't tell you how many times I have had to tell people I am a female. Because of my language and strong will-power most think I am male, despite the lady liberty in my avatar.The world looks down on a strong woman and that is why she will loose.
Mornin' IP!
ReplyDeleteHappy New year.
First,please don't refer to Sarah Palin as 'George Bush in a skirt'(wince) . She has infinitely more common sense, courage, principles and frankly, intelligence.
Now as to your other points...(a)I don't see the economy getting much better by 2012.Obama will use executive orders and his veto pen to prevent the GOP led House from doing what needs to be done,because cooperating with them in a reasonable fashion ala' Clinton is against his innermost ideological convictions and would lose him his base anyway.
(b) Obama has lost significant support in every demographic except blacks and the minority of whites who ID themselves as 'progressives.' Most independents are gone to stay, for instance. And in another example, many elderly Jewish 'Democrats-for-life' who are also pro-Israel and were intrigued by the idea of voting for the first black president were convinced by the likes of Alan Dershowitz, Sarah Silverman and others that Obama was pro-Israel. They now know the truth and many of tem won't be pulling the lever for him again.
I think Governor Palin is definitely electable provided she makes a decision to go for the prize.
Her biggest problem right now is the GOP establishment (which doesn't like the Tea Party) and the fact that the media has painted her as an idiot, which I know personally is not at all accurate.
Her getting the nomination would deal with the first problem.
And the first debate between her and Zero would likely put the second question to rest forever.
Regards,
Rob
ps: I always knew from Day One that you were female. Your writing style is a dead giveaway.
If McCain were to run I would vote against him. I would rather have an avowed Marxist/socialist like Obama be president when we collapse then a pseudo-Republican like McCain.
ReplyDeleteI would vote for Palin but I hope and pray she does not run. She cannot win and would guarantee us four more years of Obama. She can do more good as a commentator and activist.
uh, ff, the electoral vote has already been certified.
ReplyDeletehussein wins: 320 to 296.
I agree with IP's analysis. I like Palin, but I question whether she is electable, due to the non-stop sh*t she is going to take from the PDS lame-stream media. Shouldn't be that way, but it is. Again, IP calls it, if the economy miraculously recovers, Chairman Obamao gets another term. If not, he gets fired. I do see some green shoots, i.e., the Dow, and some small building starts in my neighborhood, and some commercial leases being signed.
ReplyDeleteHello Rosey,
ReplyDeleteFirst off Anyone running against Obama is going to be demonized. The difference with Palin is that:
(a) everything that could be thrown against her already has been, to the point of overkill where it literally is having the opposite effect.
(B)She's already proven she can handle it, and give back some of her own besides.
(c) Just because she's been so demonized, the shock effect in mainstream America when they see how intelligent and personable she really is in the debates will be immense. We've already seen some of it with the reaction to her convention speech, the way she pummeled Biden in their debate and her Oprah appearance.
I don't see anyone in the GOP with her mad political skillz, her way with words or her ability to clearly articulate conservative principles.
There's a reason why the Left has spent so much time trying to destroy her. She's like Kryptonite to Obama.