More Good News On India - Modi And The BJP Are Strongly Pro Israel!

 

As I reported previously, India has moved decisively to the Right in its new elections, with the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)winning by a landslide large enough to preclude the BJP having to form a coalition.

India's economy has stagnated, with the growth rate slowed, inflation as a major problem and massive corruption and over-regulation from India's bureaucracy. And ineffectual leadership by the quasi-socialist Congress party was also a major campaign issue. This sounds suspiciously like the United States at the end of the Carter years.

The BJP and India's new prime Minister Narendra Modi, considered the right wing of Indian polics, ran on economic growth, a pro-business administration, fiscal responsibility, a more muscular foreign policy and clean, honest government.

Part of that will almost certainly be increased and stronger ties with Israel, since Modi and the BJP have a strongly pro-Israel stance.


One of the things Modi campaigned on was his record of economic success as Chief Minister of Gujarat State, something Israel had an important role in:

Part of his success was due to a public relations campaign and financial incentives to encourage investment in development within Gujarat. Israel was reportedly one of Modi's greatest allies in economic progress according to the International Business Times. He has visited Israel in the past and has publicly supported it.

Modi came to power as leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which has supported his close political and financial ties with Israel, who invested billions of dollars in Gujarat during Modi's time as its leader.

Not only was Israeli PM Benyamin Netanyahu one of the first world leaders to call Modi to congratulate him on his victory, but Israel and Modi have a personal history because of his virtual ostracizing by the Obama Administration and the EU:

Though popular throughout much of the nation for his charisma and economic success, Modi is a highly controversial political figure since riots in 2002 in Gujarat when 1,200 people were killed in violence between Hindus and Muslims. (NB - for the  most part, this was determined to be mostly Muslim on Hindu rioting)

Modi was accused of complicity in the violence and though he was absolved of all accusations by India's Supreme Court, the US and European countries rejected visas for Modi in sanctions meant to punish the leader for not doing enough to end the violence.

Israel gained Modi as a business partner and political supporter when he saw that attempting to find financial investment from the US and Europe wasn't politically viable.

Yet, it isn't only for financial gain that Israel finds itself naturally partnered with Modi's BJP. Anti-Pakistan and anti-Islamic rhetoric from BJP officials over the years has drawn India closer to Israel politically and ideologically as they also search for ways to cooperate in fighting terrorism.

Israel's relationship with India has always been friendly, (you can travel to Goa and other cities in India and see signs in Hebrew because of all the Israeli tourists) and Israel remains India's chief supplier of military hard ware. But the relationship was always tempered by two things - the need of the Congress Party's coalition to cater politically to India's Muslim minority, about 10% of the population and the need for oil and gas to fuel India's economy.

Modi and the BJP have no need to enter into that kind of coalition politically, Israel is a promising new source of oil and gas as well as badly needed investment and the two countries, both surrounded by more or less hostile Muslim states are natural allies against Islamist terrorism.

I predicted some time ago that  the Obama Administration's attitude towards the American-Israeli relationship would lead to Israel finding some new best friends overseas.  Watch as Israel's relationship with China continues to warm up as well.

The "Zionist Hindu Crusader Alliance"

Proof that great minds think alike, noted author Walter Russell Mead writes on the Islamists' worst nightmare:

Documents captured from radicals and terrorists in Pakistan warn darkly about a new axis of evil in the world: a ‘Zionist Hindu Crusader‘ alliance bringing Israel, India, and the United States together in a war on Islam. They are wrong about the last part; all three countries want peaceful relations with Islamic countries based on mutual recognition and respect. The alliance isn’t a closed club, and Islamic countries are welcome to join. Otherwise, however, the radicals have a point. The deepening relations between the United States, India, and Israel are changing the geopolitical geometry of the modern world in ways that will make the lives of fanatical terrorists even more dismal and depressing (not to mention shorter) than they already are. Israel and the United States are both in a better long term position than many Americans sometimes think; one of the main reasons is an Indian-Israeli connection that most Americans know nothing about.

Americans often underestimate Israel: we underestimate Israel’s ability to conduct a foreign policy independent of US support and we underestimate Israel’s long term prospects for success in its region. Indeed, Americans often talk about Israel as if we were the Jewish state’s only real friend — and that Israel is completely dependent on American goodwill.

That’s not true historically and it’s not true today. The Soviet Union (through its Czechoslovakian satellite regime) provided Israel with the arms that gave it the decisive advantage in its War of Independence. The British and French armed and supported Israel in the 1956 Suez War. France provided Israel with the core of its nuclear technology and France supplied Israel with the Mirage jets which destroyed the Arab air forces at the outset of the Six-Day War. During all this time the United States government did not provide Israel with much help; no Israeli prime minister was even invited to Washington until 1964 when Levi Eshkol met with President Lyndon Johnson.

While the United States today is unquestionably Israel’s most important ally and partner, we are not the only game in town. The United States isn’t the country where Israel enjoys its highest favorable ratings; according to a survey carried out for the Israeli Foreign Ministry in 2009, India is the country where people like Israel the most. According to the survey, 58 percent of Indians supported Israel; 56 percent of Americans in the survey felt that way. {...}

The relationship isn’t just about good wishes. India has the largest (reported) defense budget of any developing country; Israel is India’s largest supplier of arms. As two of the leading IT countries in the world, India and Israel also collaborate on a variety of high tech projects, some with military implications.

Although both India and Israel were born at the same time — a collapsing British Empire was hastily liquidating its overseas commitments — for many years they had little to do with each other. Britain’s inglorious scuttle from imperial responsibility left festering issues for both countries: Palestine and Kashmir. It was a strategic objective of Indian foreign policy to keep the Kashmir question away from the United Nations, and in particular to avoid a united Islamic bloc on the question. Siding with Israel seemed a good way to trigger exactly the hostility India wanted to avoid. Later in the Cold War period, India’s close relationship with the Soviet Union encouraged a distance between India and America’s close Middle Eastern ally. As a result, as a leader of the Non-Aligned Movement, India was one of Israel’s toughest opponents, voting consistently with the Arabs to isolate Israel in international bodies (informally, ties were often closer, especially in business).

In one of the least-noted but perhaps more important shifts of the post Cold War world, that has all changed. Currently, Israel isn’t just popular in India. It is India’s largest supplier of high-tech weapons and the growing cooperation between the two countries is spreading into both economic and political fields. There is a strategic compatibility in their interests. Economically, the marriage of Indian and Israeli high-tech know how with India’s enormous force of educated, English-speaking labor, its vast internal market, and Israel’s marketing experience and connections with the advanced industrial economies make for a natural complementarity. Israel welcomes the rise of Indian economic and political influence in the Middle East and East Africa. Both countries view the activities of radicals in Pakistan and their use of Pakistan and Afghanistan for wider regional ambitions with deep concern.

There’s another connection. The United States increasingly favors the emergence of India as a world and regional power. In the context of the Middle East and Africa, Americans see India as a stabilizing, anti-extremist force. More broadly, while the United States isn’t (and shouldn’t be) operating a policy of containment against China, the growing prosperity and power of India in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East is an important positive factor in maintaining the kind of international order the United States wants to see. That means, among other things, that the United States is likely to look with more favor on transfers of technological know how and the sales of advanced weapons systems from Israel to India than from Israel to China. This preference reinforces the ties between the two most successful democracies to emerge from British colonialism in modern Asia. {...}

This “Zionist Hindu Crusader” alliance is a nightmare scenario for radicals and terrorists in the Islamic world. The emergence of closer relations between the American global superpower, the regional Israeli military, and technological superpower, and the rising superpower of India is a basic challenge to the worldview of the extremists. The radicals have imagined a world in which the west and especially America is in decline, Israel faces a deep crisis, and a resurgent Islamic world is emerging as a new world-historical power.

Suppose none of that is happening. Suppose instead that both the United States and Israel are going to prosper and grow, based in part on their economic relationship with India. Suppose that Israel’s extraordinary culture of high-tech innovation will be energized by the relationship with India so that Israel’s technological and scientific lead over its neighbors continues to grow over time. Suppose that Indian power will be returning to the Gulf and East Africa, and that not only Pakistan but the Arab world will be increasingly focused on accommodating the rise of a new regional, and ultimately global, superpower. Add to this that immense natural gas discoveries off Israel’s coastline are revolutionizing the country’s long term economic position and security strategy.

In that kind of world the arguments and the ideas of religious radicals won’t make much sense to most people. On the other hand, the economic dynamism created by the explosive growth of the Indian economy (assuming of course that the trend toward double-digit GDP growth continues) will offer the Arab world (and Pakistan) new opportunities for rapid economic development of their own. At the same time, the growing diplomatic and political influence that a rising India will have in the region will add new weight to American efforts to help the region move toward peace and reconciliation. In this kind of world, Islamic radicalism can’t deliver and its basic assumptions look shallow and unconvincing.

I would disagree with Mead in some important respect. While he is certainly correct in terms of the trend, the Obama Administration, because of its orientation towards Islam does not favor the growth of India as a regional power and in fact has attempted to intervene in Israel's weapons and high tech sales to India.However,I see this as an aberrant episode in a long time trend..if nothing else, because of the common enemies involved.

I would also disagree with Mead that the growth of India's economy offers opportunities for rapid economic development to Pakistan and the Arab world.If that were true, the Arab world would long since have abandoned its boycott of Israel and taken steps to normalize relations and economic cooperation.

Unfortunately, Islam and revanchist yearnings trump everything else when it comes to much of the Muslim world, and economic advantage isn't going to change that.

This is particularly true of Pakistan, a country that was formed almost entirely out of opposition to India.

Hat tip Carl

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Israel May Be Seeking A New Best Friend

The Obama Administration has made it crystal clear that they regard Israel as a problem rather than the loyal ally it's been since the Nixon Administration.

Some very influential Israelis are thinking ahead and saying that it's time Israel had a new best friend. No less than Avigdor Lieberman, Israel's presumptive foreign minister has said that Israel's ties with Russia "must rise to the level of a strategic partnership" :

Relations between Russia and Israel must and can rise to a level of strategic partnership, said Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the Israel is Our Home party and a future member of Israel's new coalition government in an interview with Interfax.

"I've been saying all along that relations between Israel and Russia must rise to a level of strategic partnership. This is even more relevant today, then previously," Lieberman said.

The Israel is Our Home party won the third largest number of votes in the parliamentary elections and it is involved in the talks on the formation of Israel's new government.

"However paradoxical it may seem, the global economic crisis gives Israel new opportunities to reach the Russian market, after many of the Western companies abandoned it," the Israeli politician said.

Lieberman, who co-chaired the Russian-Israeli intergovernmental commission for trade and economic cooperation in 2003-04, said that, the two countries have accomplished "a real breakthrough" in this area, but the potential is far from being exhausted.

The same refers to military-technical cooperation between Israel and Russia, he said.

"Israel has quite a few things to offer Russia in this sector - from the electronic stuffing for fighter jets to drones," Lieberman said.

Could it happen? Possibly. Russia, after all does not really need oil and gas, which is what Iran and the Arabs have to sell. And as the price of oil goes down, countries like Iran have less money to buy what Russia has on offer. And while it's not evident yet, there could be significant conflicts in the future between Russia and Turkey, who are traditional antagonists and Russia and Iran, as the three countries attempt to expand their influence into the gas and oil regions in the old Soviet empire in central Asia.

On the other hand Russia does have a definite need for Israeli high tech, especially when it comes to industrial and defense applications.And the Israelis look like they're definitely thinking along those lines, especially if the Obama Administration continues to alienate them, as seems likely. In that case, the US would need to station significant naval and air forces somewhere in the region ( probably in the Emirates) to protect our interests there, as well as somewhere in the Eastern Mediterranean to guard NATO's southern flank, along with a significant number of troops...the cost of which would make the aid we currently give Israel look like a pittance in comparison.

Another Israeli friend in the making appears to be India, the world's largest democracy, and another US ally the Obama Administration has already offended by attempting to stick its nose into Kashmir and by its outreach to Pakistan and the Muslim world. Like Israel, India is a non-Muslim democracy threatened by a neighboring Islamic presence. India has a long history of welcoming Israeli tourists (which is why there was a Chabad center in Mumbai). The two countries have significant trade and the Israeli and Indian militaries have exchanges attaches and even done a few military exercises together at various times. India's latest spy satellite was purchased from Israel, a transaction that should definite boost the security ties between the two countries.

Another country Israel may develop closer ties with is China. While China currently backs countries like Iran and the Sudan in the UN, this is basically a matter of protecting oil and gas sources for its expanding economy rather than any real affinity. In fact China's press coverage of Israel is fairly balanced and the overall image of Israel in China is relatively good.

And China has its own problem with restive Muslims, the Uighers in the west of the country.

While China needs what Iran and the Arabs have to sell, it also has a need for Israeli electronic, agricultural and industrial technology and expertise. The chief friction between China and Israel came some time ago, when the US forced Israel to renege on a contract they had to supply China with delivery of Falcon intelligence planes back in 2000 the US felt had been developed as part of a joint venture. While the Israelis complained (correctly, as it turned out) that this was pressure from Washington designed simply to allow an American company to obtain the contract, they pulled out of the deal, something the Chinese were quite upset about at the time. In an environment where the US-Israeli relationship is not as close as it was, this would no longer present a problem.

It may sound odd, but the loss of the American alliance with Israel might end up affecting the US more than Israel. Hopefully it won't come to that, although the present climate in Washington towards Israel is far from friendly.