What 'Demilitarization' Really Means

 

One of Israeli PM Netanyahu's problems with both John Kerry's Hamas friendly ceasefire offer and the UN's call for an unconditional ceasefire was that neither mentioned demilitarizing Gaza, which Netanyahu rightly considers one of the prime goals of the current conflict.

But when he mentions this as something 'the international community' should be calling for, he's kidding himself. And to go even farther, even if the 'international community' agreed to do so and put it in writing, Netanyahu and the  Israeli people would be incredibly naive to accept it at face value.

Does anyone remember the 2006 Lebanon ceasefire? That resulted in a binding Series 7 UN Security Council Resolution 1701 that guaranteed the disarming of a terrorist group , Hezbollah. In exchange for the IDF ending hostilities and withdrawing all its forces back over the border, UNIFIL and the Lebanese army were supposed to see to it that Hezbollah never returned to its strongholds in South Lebanon and to disarm Hezbollah and all other militias or 'armed groups' as the resolution put it. 



With Syria and Iran in mind, there were even mention of specific penalties to be evoked in UNSCR 1701 in the event of  any foreign entity rearming Hezbollah.Even Sheik Nasrallah of Hezbollah agreed to the resolution's terms.

So, what happened? Once the IDF pulled out all of a sudden things changed. Hezbollah refused to be disarmed, and the then United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan suddenly came up with the brand new position that the UNIFIL troops were not going to take any responsibility to do so, and that it was up to the Lebanese government..who were far too weak to disarm Hezbollah on their own.

 
And when Hezbollah said that it was going to ignore UNSCR 1701's provision that Lebanon south of the Litani River was to be a Hezbollah free zone, did the UN or UNIFIL say one word? Maybe 'not our job' but not much else.

And in August of that same year, when Turkish authorities intercepted five Iranian cargo aircraft and one Syrian aircraft carrying missiles to Hezbollah forced them to land at Diyarbakır Airport in southeastern Turkey, did the UN do anything about it? Uhhh, no.

That is how the 'international community' does disarmament and demilitarization. Especially when it comes to Islamist terrorists where Israel is concerned.

My point here? Expecting the US or the UN to demilitarize Gaza and disarm Hamas is to believe in a fairy tale no matter what either of them put on a piece pf paper.Especially with President Obama in charge.

The only way to disarm and 'demilitarize' Gaza and make sure it stays that way is for the IDF to defeat Hezbollah completely. And Israel can only trust Israel to actually do it.

After that, to ensure it stays that way Israel needs to annex Gaza and and remove a substantial part of the population to UNRWA camps outside Israeli territory, or to Area A, or to a combination of the two Then repopulate Gaza with Jews and watch it become a Singapore or a Hong Kong.

This would not be a solution without cost. Solutions deferred for years never are.

But in the end, peace comes from victory. And after all of the 'sacrifices for peace' written in Jewish blood forced on Israel since the Oslo debacle, I think the Israeli people would support this over these constant wars of attrition that grow more costly each time. Enough of the balagan gadol.

Cross Posted at The Times Of Israel

'Who Was That Maked Man'? - Senior Hezbollah Commander Assassinated

No, unfortunately, it wasn't Sheik Nasrallah..but it was a nice target all the same.

Hassan al-Laqis was gunned down near his house in Beirut as he was coming home from work last night, according to Hezbollah. And by the way, notice the Hezbollah flag on the police tape at the crime scene, a warning that Hezbollah controls the crime scene and is vetting who enters and who doesn't.

Now there's no telling what that 'work' consisted of, but Laqis was formerly one of the main commanders of Hezbollah’s rockets division in charge of firing missiles at Israel which caused major damage during the the 2006 Second Lebanon War ...and he had since been promoted The Lebanese media claims that Israel tried to assassinate him during the war and failed, which is worth about what you'd think it's worth.

Hezbollah, of course, is blaming Israel for the hit, and the Israelis are of course denying it.

Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor denied that Israel was involved, the Associated Press reported.

“Israel has nothing to do with this incident,” Palmor said. “These automatic accusations are an innate reflex with Hezbollah. They don’t need evidence, they don’t need facts, they just blame anything on Israel.”

Now far be it from me to contradict the Israeli Foreign ministry, but the Lebanese papers are reporting that al-Laquis took five shots in the head and neck according to Lebanon's Daily Star. With an assault rifle, while he was sitting in his car in the parking lot. At midnight. Now, that's pretty good shooting, calling for a highly trained operative capable of getting off that many shots (and head shots no less) in a matter of seconds, which is pretty much how the IDF and Mossad train them...but that in itself doesn't prove anything. On the other hand, the word is that al-Laquis was left alive and died in a local hospital, which definitely doesn't sound like IDF or Mossad procedure in these kind of operations.

According to the Daily Star a group of Sunni Jihadis know as the “Free Sunni Brigades in Baalbek” claimed responsibility for the hit.

Sunni groups also claimed responsibility for blowing up the Iranian embassy in Beirut a few weeks ago, a delicious irony considering the support Iran gives to Islamic terrorism...including their proxy Hezbollah. In any event, al-Laquis is taking the dirt nap, and one only hopes the bullets were coated in pork fat when they entered his body.

Good riddance, and congrats to whomever took out the garbage.

A defeat for the west? Probably.

After hours of diplospeak, the UN eventually did what it does best. Thanks to France and the Arab League,it came up with a watered down, puerile ceasefire resolution designed to save and protect Hezbollah and please Iran. What's more, by doing do, the UN effectively dunged on its own prior resolution as it proved once again that not only isn't it part of the solution...it's definitely part of the problem.

The vote was unanimous, including the US..which reflects the widespread international criticism of the Bush Administration (especially from the Arabs and the EU) for stonewalling and the Bush Administration's realization that Ehud Olmert was unlikely
to get the job done in the time allowed him.

Here's what the boys at the UNSC came up with:

Instead of a `robust peacekeeping force' approved under Chapter 7 as in the first draft with the ability to use military force for imposing a ceasefire,disarming Hezbollah or creating a buffer zone in South Lebanon, the 15,000 mobilized Lebanese Army troops will move in to South Lebanon plus the 2,000 member UNFIL observer force with no authorty to do anything but act as observers and maybe make the odd cup of coffee for their Hezbollah pals.. I wonder...will the Lebanese troops give those uniforms to Hezbollah before or after they move in?

Another 15,000 UNFIL observers are to move in at a later date...but the IDF will be made to withdraw "in parallel' with the Lebanese forces as they come in. So the Israeli forces will be made to pull out before those new UNFIL observers get to South Lebanon..if they ever do.

There's absolutely no mechanism created to enforce an embargo on arms supplies from Iran and Syria or any other foreign source...so Hezbollah can be rearmed easily.

Since the idea of an effective `robust' UN force mentioned in the first draft was ditched, there's nobody to enforceme UN Security Council resolution 1559 to disarm Hezbollah...which means it won't happen.

While the preamble mentions the "unconditional release" of the two Israeli soldiers whose July 12 abduction started the war,there are no tangible steps or requirements that Hezbollah do so. Count on them being sent to Iran or Syria as soon as the IDF is safely out of the way.

While Israel is allowed to continue "defensive operations' while they're still in Lebanon, the cute language surrounding the "cessation of hostilities”"is loose enough for Hezbollah to continue fighting and claim it is conducting "legitimate national Lebanese resistance" rather than offensive operations. Nasrallah said as much when he stated that Hezbollah would continue `operations' untill the IDF leaves Lebanon.


The UN and the `International community' will rush billions of dollars worth of aid to Lebanon and rebuild the country's infrastructure with no conditions and very little oversight. Israel, with a third of the country beseiged, heavy damage to Safed, Haifa and the north of the country and over a million refugees, many of them homeless will foot the bill itself.

In other words, none of Israel's war aims in Lebanon were accomplished. Hezbollah has been severely damaged but has not been removed from South Lebanon and can claim `victory', the missile threat to Israel has not been removed, the two captured IDF soldiers were not recovered and the IDF's image as a deterrent suffered a blow.

What's more, Iran was able to divert attention form its nuclear weapons program and has enhanced prestige in the Muslim world for standing up to the Zionist/Crusaders.

Lebanon AKA Hezboolah has already agreed to these terms; the Israeli cabinet will vote on this Sunday and will probably be arm twisted into doing the same.

The real responsibility for the way this war was conducted and the disappointing results can mostly be placed at the feet of the ineffectual and indecisive leadership of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

He consistently overrode his military advisors and even his defense minister to conduct this war in a limited and slipshod fashion, refusing to allow the all out offensive the IDF begged for.

I doubt he will be in power much longer - which is the only positive thing to come out of all this. He came into power by accident, and now he's been revealed as the incompetant political hack he always was.

Ironically, now that they've been released to do the job that needed doing and were able to mount an offensive in force without the Olmert imposed handcuffs, the IDF seems to have done quite well.

They're in a race against time thanks to the ceasefire, but are proceeding until it is enforced on the ground – if and when that happens. It might not, at least until the IDF can show more tangible results.

The IDF has already succeeded in encircling Hezbollah’s 1,500-strong force in a large swathe stretching from the Litani River in the north, to Tyre in the southwest. They have been cut off from reinforcements and re-supply from the north by the IDF advances.

This is basically how Israel handled the PLO inthe 1982 Lebanon War. pushing the PLO forces out of South Lebanon up to Beirut and then trapping them in a siege.

This time, the Israeli troops are pushing Hezbollah into the Tyre enclave that also encompasses the Palestinian refugee camps of Rashidiya and Bourj al-Shamali, in order to surround them there. There won't be time for the IDF to take out Hezbollah bases in central and northern Lebanon (the Bek'aa Valley, for instance) unless the ceasefire breaks down. Those will have to be left for the Air Force to destroy, if possible.

Outside of the Tyre trap, the IDF with its new expanded forces has been advancing north from Israel’s northernmost town of Metulla towards the plain of Nabatea, north of the Litani River, taking the strategic Christian town of Marjayun en route.These units now control the village of Blat next to the Litani River – a vantage point for fire control of the Nabatean plain to the west, and Hasbaya to the east. The IDF has also captured Qantara and reached the southern bank of the Litani.

This sort of mobile war is what the IDF does best. Imagine what they could have done if they had been allowed to fight in force form the war's beginning.

Let's hope that either the Israeli cabinet grows a spine and rejects the UN resoluton as it stands, or that the IDF can somehow pull off a miracle and snatch victory from defeat before they run out of time.

Stay tuned...

Israeli MK Effie Eitam on the choice now facing Israel

MK Effie Eitam (National Union – NRP) was a commander of IDF forces in Lebanon and an authentic IDF hero. You'll recall that it was he that used his personal prestige provided Israeli PM Ehud Olmert with cover to apologize after Olmert's stupid remarks on how the Lebanon War was going to provide more of an impetus for `disengagement' in Judea and Samaria, remarks during wartime that outraged the IDF rank and file and severely damaged Israel's wartime unity.

Here, in Yediot, Eitam writes about the choice facing Israel and places the choices Israel has in plain view. I've chosen to highlight certain things:

"Yesterday, the security cabinet approved one of the most fateful decisions in the history of Israel. The choice was between victory and humiliation, and the implications will be felt far past Lebanon, further even than security issues facing northern Israel.

Hanging in the balance is nothing less than Israel's ability to survive in this region in the face of an axis of evil that sees only one alternative for Israel: destruction.

This axis of evil will not reconcile itself to Israel inside the "green line" or "blue line." It is committed to destroying Israel – men, women and children, young and old alike. To a very large extent, the results of the current fight with Hezbollah will determine the Israel's long-term outlook.

Simple reality

There are periods in which a nation finds itself facing a complicated reality. But there are also times when we must simplify matters and bring time to the place each of us occupies today, where the only question is: To be, or to cease fire?

Everyone now understands that the current war is the one in which we promised ourselves that should it occur, we would stand strong, that we wouldn't blink.

This is the joint red line we swore we would never retreat from. Clearly, after this red line there is no where to retreat to. This is the place, and now is the time, upon which countries stand or fall.

Every one of us, in his own way, believes the State of Israel and its security have been left in our hands by the Jewish people. This country is a statement of hope, bequeathed to us by our parents and grandparents. Now, we have to defend it. It's as simple as that.


Occupied territory

We must understand that Hezbollah and its rockets have successfully captured a large section of Israel. What's at stake now is no different thank crossing the Suez Canal during the Yom Kippur War, or pushing the Syrians ff the Golan Heights, or moving the war to enemy territory during the Six Day War.

South Lebanon is the object of Israel's counter-offensive, in order to loosen the stranglehold Hizbullah enjoys over northern Israel.

Israel 's civilian home front is bearing the burden of this war with a stubbornness and a unity unseen since the War of Independence. This is the moment and this is the purpose for which the state and the army were created. The army must act now to carry out any action necessary, wherever necessary, to restore our civilians' basic right to life, even if soldiers must die to restore it.

If the prime minister and defense minister still fail to understand the fatefulness of the current situation. If they retreat into hesitation and delusion, and if they choose to hide behind empty, twisted words, or even worse – behind a phony shield that the IDF is not, it will become clear that this government does not, and never did, deserve the faith of hundreds of thousands of Israelis who have born the brunt of this war so far."

When I read this, it reminds me of what Stalin once said to the British Ambassador about Churchill during the 1930's when Sir Winston was a marginal and forgotten figure:

" You will turn to the old lion yet on the day of battle."

Lebanon is only the start of things..I think Effie Eitam knows that.