Showing posts with label Syria. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Syria. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 10, 2018

Getting Serious About Syria



The bleeding orifice known as Syria has once again erupted, due to a chemical weapons attack in Douma that took a number of civilian lives, or so it seems.I say this because media has become a weapon in modern warfare, the Sunni Syrian rebels are more than capable of rigging something up and as the self inspecting Iranians would tell you about the pictures and videos they send to the IAEA as 'compliance,' such things are very easy to stage.

President Trump has promised 'a high price' for the attack, referred to Syria's dictator as 'that animal Assad,' (why slander animals?) and actually took the opportunity to cite Putin as responsible. I suppose that was just for domestic politics.

To date there was one very successful air raid on a Syrian regime airbase east of Homs which was crawling with Iranians. Putin reportedly says it was the work of the always effective Israeli air force, but my Lil' Birdies in Israel just gave a wry chuckle when I tried to confirm this. My guess is that it very well might have been, given the Iranian connection, but if it was, the IDF likely had other reasons rather than retaliating for the gas attack. One of them was probably to send a direct message to Iranian President Rouhani, who's been doing some chest pounding lately that Israel is not prepared to let them turn Syria into another Gaza or Lebanon.

Meanwhile, a second guided missile U.S. destroyer, the USS Porter has been sent to the Syrian coast to join the USS Donald Cook, a similar ship already there.

What happens next is anyone's guess.

Needless to say, the whole assortment of isolationist paleo cons, pro-Iran leftists and Israel haters in general are screaming bloody murder. They want us out of Syria yesterday. John Bolton being named National Security Advisor made them particularly insane.

But no matter matter what happened or didn't happen in Douma, pulling out of Syria would be a huge strategic error and a bad mistake. Here's why.

Syria was where ISIS got its start emerging from a group of 'moderate' Sunni rebels who were mostly al-Qaeda, its affiliates like al-Nusrah or other Islamists and salafists. Obama, along with his BFF Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey and Qatar armed, trained and financed these people, bypassing congress in the process.

As he was leaving, our now ex-president was careful to drop the mess into other hands, stating that it would take years to defeat ISIS and take back the territories they help in Syria and Iraq. President Trump said it could be done in a matter of months and did exactly that. Our allies in that effort were the Kurds. The Iraqi army that dropped their weapons and ran from ISIS before were mostly useful in mopping up afterwards.

When Obama was president, he gave the Kurds just enough ammo and supplies to barely hold their own. The Israelis, with long time close connections with the Kurds were able to supply some more. And When Donald Trump came in and put US air, naval and ground forces into the equation, the Kurdish Persh Merga played a key role in destroying ISIS on the ground and driving them out of their Iraqi and Syrian strongholds.

Their reward was to have the Shi'ite Iraqi government steal the oil rich city of Kirkuk, violating the original Iraqi federation agreement and making a Kurdish state even within the federation financially impossible. And for the Turks to attack them and seize Kurdish territory in Syria's northern border region.

Here's the present situation. The Turks have retreated after being 'urged to do so' by Iran's President Rouhani. The U.S. still has about 2,000 ground troops in Syria, mostly embedded with Kurdish forces, which also include Yazedi and Christians as well as civilians.

Aside from the certain bloodbath, if we leave we hand Iran a major victory, a land passage between their colony in Iraq and their colony in Lebanon. And we give them access to the Mediterranean. Also, we would give Iran yet another reason to consider the US an easy foe who is afraid of them.

Finally, it would mean that the Kurds, our true allies would be destroyed.

History gives us numerous examples of what happens to world powers who allow their allies to be neutralized and liquidated. Or even worse, co-opted to fighting on the other side.

Czechoslovakia in 1938 had a strong, well trained and well armed military, excellent border fortifications and protective terrain in the mountain passes and dense forests bordering Germany. They even had a major arms manufacturer in Skoda, comparable to Krup. Hitler could never have attacked the west successfully with that on his borders, because it would have meant a two front war, something he and the Germans dreaded and weren't ready for.

When Britain and France sold out the Czechs, not only did they ensure that Hitler would attack them when he was ready, but that Britain and France were so frightened of war that they would do anything to prevent it. And it also sent a message to Stalin, who had been talking earnestly to Britain and France about an alliance or mutual defense pact to keep the Germans at bay that a non-aggression pact with Hitler was a far better bet.

At the start of the Punic Wars, Carthage allowed its allies in Sicily to be destroyed simply because a war might cost two much money. Sicily's resources and manpower were denied to them, as were its ports, shipyards and its strategic position within easy sailing range of Carthage heading south and close to Rome heading Northeast. While the Carthaginians won (or tied, depending on how you see it) the first Punic War, they lost the others once Rome had a navy. Had they backed their Sicilian allies, Hannibal might have invaded from the south in easy distance to Rome instead of having to leave from Spain, travel the Alps and lose a portion of his men and war elephants in the process before he ever was able to fight in Italy.

There are numerous other examples.

But what about the Russians?

Putin's main interest in Syria is twofold. The main thing for him is the warm water ports at Tarshish and Latakia. Secondary is appeasing his Iranian allies. And when it comes to Iran, Putin's position is by necessity somewhat ambivalent. The U.S. pulling out of Syria is not really in Russia's best interest.

He understands that the Israelis will simply not allow Iran to put missile or air bases in Syria. If a hot war breaks out, Russian personnel will be caught in the middle of it, and if Russia intervenes and is involved in a proxy war on Iran's side, the U.S. will do the same with Israel, and Russia can't afford a war just now. Or really, to alienate Israel, with whom Russia still has relatively cordial relations.

As I pointed out previously, during the Obama years Russia and Israel put together an actual hotline between the Kremlin and it's equivalent in Tel Aviv. The idea was to avoid conflicts and any casualties for Russian personnel. And part of it involved Russia agreeing to turn a blind eye to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah or Iranians or weapons shipments going to these parties as long as no Russians got killed. The agreement has worked well so far. Even though Putin claims the Israelis bombed that air base and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov called it “a very dangerous development” Putin hasn't done anything about it, nor would it serve him or Russia to do so.

Even less to Russia's liking, President Trump is not Obama and might just decide to fix America's Iran problem once and for all.

So given some access to the ports and actual negotiations with the president on settling the Syria question, Putin would likely be willing to cut a deal...given the alternatives.


As for Syria's ultimate destiny, I'm ambivalent as long as Iran is kept out of the picture, which is vital for U.S. interests. Just rebuilding its infrastructure after the war is going to take billions, which I see no reason for the American taxpayer to shell out...no nation building, please. If anything, Syria should become the new Kurdistan, at least a decent piece of it. They're owed at least that much, at least.






Monday, July 24, 2017

Why John McCain Should Learn To Keep His Mouth Shut...For His Own Good

 Image result for John McCain Angry and Old

Senator John McCain of Arizona was recently taken ill with a fairly serious form of brain cancer, glioblastoma. There's only a ten percent chance of surviving more than a few years. Ordinarily, as much as I disagree with his politics and dislike his record in office, my normal policy would be to simply wish him luck on his recovery and leave it at that. Those sentiments still apply, but really, John McCain should learn to keep his mouth shut. For his own good.

Senator McCain has always been a sucker for press attention and apparently the 80-year-old wasn't too ill to cooperate with the drive by media by hitting out at President Trump. It's particular pernicious since he was personally involved in the matter at hand, albeit in a ludicrous way.

Today, President Trump formally ended a CIA program started by President Barack Hussein Obama
in 2013. It was a covert operation that by passed Congress to arm, train and support supposed moderate Syrian rebels in what was then called the Free Syrian Army against Syrian dictator Bashar Assad.

McCain went nuts over this. After calling out the president in terms the usual suspects in the media just ate up, McCain said "If these reports are true, the administration is playing right into the hands of Vladimir Putin."

That right in the hands bit is particularly funny coming from McCain, but first a little background.

The Free Syrian Army were never 'moderate.' The movement was filled with Salafists, Islamists and jihadis of the most radical persuasion. One of the main components was al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Nusrah, an officially designated terrorist group. Other elements were part of the the Muslim Brotherhood.

The CIA operation also involved collusion with Qatar and President Obama's BFF, Turkey's Tayyip Erdoğan. There was  a documentary made by PBS ( hardly a right wing, anti-Obama platform) entitled " Syria: Arming the Rebels" that actually showed jihadis training, holding up U.S. weapons and supplies and describe their journey from the Syrian battlefield to meet with their American handlers in Turkey and then being shipped to Qatar. Once there, they're instructed in sophisticated combat techniques, including one course on “how to finish off soldiers still alive after an ambush.”

As PBS noted "it appears the Obama administration is allowing select groups of rebels to receive US-made anti-tank missiles."

Those 'select groups' became ISIS, and the Obama Administration spent $287 million equipping and training them before congress found out, after which Obama's Secretary of State John Kerry asked Congress for an additional half a billion dollars to essentially fund what became ISIS. Now you know how ISIS got so strong so fast. You see, ISIS started in Syria, not Iraq, with the Free Syrian Army.Iraq came later.

One of the Senators trying to push increased funding for them was none other than John McCain. In one unintentionally hilarious episode McCain met with some of the leaders of those 'moderate rebels.'

 Image result for John McCain shaking hands with al-Qaeda in Syria

Let's see, left to right we have Abu Mosa, al-Qaeda operative and later ISIS press officer; Peeking over Mosa's shoulder in ISIS Calipha Abu Baker al-Baghdadi; McCain; 'General' Salim Idris, who headed up a small window dressing organization called the Syrian Military Council that had nothing to do with the Free Syrian Army or any real military action;  Mohammed Noor, a member of al-Nusrah and ISIS officer who kidnapped three hostages who were later beheaded in ISIS videos,;and Malik Massouwi, another al-Nusrah member and ISIS commander. So yes, the Obama Administration helped create and fund ISIS.

McCain went to Turkey and slipped just over the border to the Syrian border town of Bab-al-Salam to press the flesh with his pals.

Later on, having built up one terrorist army and seen it go out of control and become ISIS, President Obama found another group of 'moderates' to support along with Qatar and Turkey, Jaish-al-Fatah, the Army of Conquest.

 

So, who are these guys in Jaish-al-Fatah, the new moderates in Syria? Why, the two main components are Ahrar ash-Sham, an officially designated terrorist group and our old friends the al-Qaeda offshoot al-Nusrah, of course. These are the guys Obama (and yes, Senator McCain) screamed bloody murder about Putin targeting with air strikes.

Considering that they were hunkered down right next to Lebanon's border in large chunks of Idlib province including the provincial capitol, Putin targeting them certainly made sense strategically.

Trump finally pulling the plug on these jihadis also certainly made sense.And you can't call it aiding and abetting terrorism, a federal crime some other people I could mention could plausibly be charged with.

One group of real moderates Trump has been backing lately with great success is the Kurds. Under Obama's reign, the Kurds got just enough support to keep them going, but President Trump has increased support for the Kurds and their heroic Persh Mergah quite a bit. And as WAPO columnist David Ignatius had to sorrowfully admit, the Kurds cheer wildly whenever our president's name is mentioned. They know they finally have a real friend in the White House. And Ignatius also had a few things to say about our president's decisiveness. So much for Senator McCain's nonsense about 'no ISIS strategy:



So Senator McCain, for obvious reasons ought to learn for once to keep his mouth shut.

I wish him a full recovery and a nice retirement from public life. Maybe there's a savings and loan he can do commercials for on TV, just so he could enjoy a nice buzz from being on camera. In Spanish. I'm certain he could work out something with Univision, his chief donor.






Sunday, April 09, 2017

Syria - Has Trump Fallen Into The Trap?

 

President Donald Trump ordered two U.S. warships in the Mediterranean Sea, the USS Ross and the USS Porter, to attack a Syrian base. They fired 59 Tomahawk missiles at a single target, Shayrat Airfield in Homs province in western Syria.



President Trump ordered this in response to yet another new atrocity occurring in Syria.
It happened in Idlib province, right next to to Northeastern Lebanon at a place called
Khan Sheikhoun. Dozens of people were reported killed and many injured by what appears to be a Sarin gas attack. Followed by the usual poignant pictures and purple rhetoric.


If I seem callous and cynical about this, it's because what happened at Khan Sheikhoun appears to be following a pattern.

Al-Qaeda in Syria and its allied "moderate rebels" like al-Nusrah are undergoing some serious defeats. Their last offensive on Hama was thrown back with heavy losses. The Russian defense ministry said that more than 2,000 Jihadis had been killed. Another attack on the port city of Latakia was stopped and repulsed by massive Russian air strikes.

The old question Qui bono, who benefits puts this in an entirely different light. First off, we know that there are lots of chemical weapons in Syria, many of them shipped there by Assad's fellow Ba'athist Saddam Hussein in Iraq on the eve of our invasion. Well, not quite on the eve, but during the nineteen month delay that occurred thanks to the Left' s street theater and debates. And who knows what came in to Syria thanks to President Obama's illegal war in Libya? In any event, the shifting nature of the war has ensured that both Assad's forces and the jihadis have access to chemical weapons.

(Snap quiz for all you Obama fans reading this. Your narrative was that our brilliant president confronted Putin and Assad forcefully and made Assad give all his chemical weapons to Russia, remember? 

If that's true, then it can't be the Syrian army who launched this gas attack, right? If it wasn't true, then President Obama was simply the clueless buffoon, ideologue and easy mark he almost always was in anything remotely resembling foreign affairs, yes? Which one was it? Remember to show your work...)

As far as who benefits, it likely isn't Assad. With the assistance of Russia, Hezbollah and Iran, he's been doing quite well militarily lately. The last thing I'd want in his situation would be a gas attack with lots of media coverage right now, especially just two days before another international conference on Syria.

Now the jihadis, those 'moderate Syrian rebels?' Different story. Islamist killers have learned well haw easy it is to manipulate the gullible media and stage atrocities for propaganda purposes. One of those right now has already resulted in a missile attack on a key Syrian base within spitting distance of their strongholds in Idlib.

And yes, this is a pattern. Whenever the jihadis suffer a military defeat or need propaganda, we
 have seen another gas attack or other atrocity with lots of bleeders, especially children.
The exact same thing happened a while ago after the Jihadis suffered military defeats in Ghouta, near Damascus. This was a failed attempt to secure the area south of Damascus for the presumptive no fly zone the Obama Administration had been trying to arrange.

After being hurled back,  the Syrian 'moderates' announced that there had been a massive chemical attack which allegedly inflicted about 1,300 fatalities including hundreds of children. As in previous chemical attacks blamed on the Assad government, the jihadis claimed the attacks used Sarin nerve gas, and they flooded YouTube with videos, especially ones featuring children.

Except there never was any conclusive evidence about the attack or the perpetrators. Even the reports from the jihadis themselves were conflicted. First, the gas was supposedly delivered via missiles. When EU politicians and Obama started yapping about enforcing a no fly zone ala' Libya, all of a sudden the rebels were claiming the gas was delivered by an aerial bombardment - except there was no evidence of shrapnel wounds,par for the course when ot come to  both artillery or airborne attacks of this kind. Mot only that, but  when news of the attacks first went public, the UN delegation and foreign diplomats were denied access to the attack site for a week by the Syrian opposition because it 'wasn't safe' for them.

We also don't know who fired shots at the UN delegation when they were finally allowed to enter the attack site by the Assad regime. It could very well have been Assad's men...but it could also just as easily been the insurgents.

Same story with the Houla massacre that was supposed to have been perpetrated by Assad's troops and had the usual suspects screaming for us to make a 'humanitarian intervention'. It turned out that atrocity was performed by the rebels as a false flag operation.

Please, baby, don't let me be misunderstood. What's going on in Syria is horrible, but by no means uncommon in these parts. War here is war to the knife. We are not dealing with a culture anything like ours. So no matter who actually pulled off the attack on  Khan Sheikhoun, this is normal stuff to the actual  participants, regardless of how we see it. Again, war to the knife.

Which brings me to the next question. Just why did President Trump fire those missiles at Syria and was it a proper response or a huge error? Well, it depends.

If President Trump was trying to send a message to Basher Assad and Vladimir Putin  that he ain't Barack Obama and that if it was them, they had better NOT use gas attacks again, that's one thing. The Russians, by the way, said that the gas was released by an attack on an al-Nusrah jihadi arsenal, which sounds somewhat plausible. Putin's spokesperson,  Dmitry Peskov, also hurried to say that their support for Assad was 'not unconditional.'

From the Associated Press:

Peskov told The Associated Press in an interview that “unconditional support is not possible in this current world,” but added that “it is not correct to say that Moscow can convince Mr. Assad to do whatever is wanted in Moscow. This is totally wrong.”…

Peskov said Russia expects a full international investigation into the attack before the U.N. Security Council considers any resolution condemning the chemical attack that he described as “very tragic.” Doing otherwise, he said, would be “simply unfair in terms of international law.”

Russia’s Defense Ministry said the toxic agents were released when a Syrian airstrike hit a rebel chemical weapons arsenal and munitions factory on the town’s eastern outskirts. Asked what proof Moscow has for that assessment, Peskov said that Russia is the only legitimate foreign power on the ground in Syria and therefore has “more wide information about what is going on there.”

So much for Trump being 'Putin's puppet' hmmm?

On the other hand, if President Trump is using this as an opening gambit to getting us seriously involved in Syria with the idea of regime change, he's making a huge mistake.

First, and most important, what exactly would we be  trying to accomplish in Syria by intervening and promoting regime change? A sovereign Syrian nation under democratic rule that's an ally of the west? It seems to me we've tried that before and failed miserably in every case.

Quite simply, the 'customers' aren't interested in what we're selling. Oh, they'll hold an election here and there if they're bribed by enough western aid money, but it always breaks down along tribal lines because that's what most of these people know and understand. And the inherent culture regards what we consider liberty with fear and loathing, because it diametrically opposes what Islam teaches them. Small wonder it's been such a waste of time, blood and treasure, especially given how we've gone about it.

Syria is a made up, dysfunctional failed state, a few provinces cobbled together after WWI. No one has ever been able to make much of it, Not Alexander, not the Seleucid Greeks, not the Byzantines or even the Ottomans. It produces some agricultural products, has somemanufacturing and a few nice Mediterranean ports. Damascus grew because of the trade routes, but that was literally centuries ago and that no longer exists. At this point, Syria isn't even feeding itself and wasn't when the civil war erupted, which is a huge part of why it erupted, sectarian conflicts aside. As the price of cereal grains and other food staples rose, Assad simply didn't have the money to artificially lower them with subsidies like the Saudis and others did.

There are bad actors on both sides of the sectarian civil war, and no benefit to us to intervene because the killing will go on. It's the reverse of Clausewitz's famous line. In places like Syria War is politics by other means.

If Assad is out of the picture or if we remove him, just watch as the jihadi factions start warring among themselves after they finish killing off the Alawites, Shia, Christians and Druse.

I'm hoping President Trump was just sending a message here. If we intervene in this killing ground it will be a huge mistake. Ditto with taking in 'refugees' like Europe did.

As the well known biblical quote goes, he that troubleth his own house will inherit the wind. I hope President Trump keeps that in mind. There's no gain for America falling into the trap of either importing Syria's dysfunction or investing blood and treasure to make it something it's not.





Rob Miller

Rob Miller writes for Joshuapundit. His articles have appeared in The Jerusalem Post, The Washington Examiner, American Thinker, The Los Angeles Times, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The San Francisco Chronicle, Real Clear Politics, The Times Of Israel, Breitbart.Com and other publications.



Monday, December 19, 2016

Russia's Ambassador Assassinated In Turkey: 'Allahu Akbar!'


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Russian Ambassador to Turkey Andrei Karlov was assassinated today by  Turkish special forces officer, 22-year -old Mevlut Mert Altintas. who was part of a security detail. Ambassador Karlov was delivering a speech at an art gallery in the Turkish capital of Ankara when he was shot several times in the back without warning, and then shot at least once more at close range as he lay on the floor. As he murdered the Ambassador, the assassin yelled 'Allahu Akbar' numerous times and quoted a follower of Mohammad, "We are the ones who pledged Bai'a (fealty) to Mohammed on the terms of jihad as long as we live.'' He also said in Turkish," "We die in Aleppo, you die here."

Three more people were wounded when the gunman shot into the crowd.

According to eye witnesses, the killer was captured alive by Turkish security, but it was reported afterwards by the heavily controlled Turkish press that he 'died in a shootout with the police.'

So, what's this all about?

Those keeping track on news in this part of the world may recall that Russia's relations with Turkey and its leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have been dicey for some time. Russia took exception to Erdoğan's support of ISIS and other Syrian jihadist rebels, and relations cratered in November of 2015 after the Turkish Air Force shot down a Russian fighter jet that had briefly entered Turkish airspace en route from a bombing raid in Syria. After Russia's Putin ordered sanctions on importing Turkish goods and began threatening even harsher retaliation, Erdoğan apologized and relations have slowly improved, but only up to a point. Russia allowed the Turkish military into northern Syria, something that worked for Putin because it freed up manpower for the war in Syria's jihadis and pleased Erdoğan, who wanted to prevent the Kurds from establishing a state there.

But Erdoğan's Islamist heart still beats for the Syrian rebels, and it remains a point of contention that will likely come to a boil once Putin tells Erdoğan to take his military back over the border to Turkey.

The flash point, of course, is the northern Syrian city of Aleppo, where Islamist jihadis are being pushed out of their strongholds in the city. Any time you have this kind of urban warfare, civilians get killed. That's particularly true when jihadis are involved, since they will happily put civilians in danger by using their homes, hospitals and other civilian areas as military outposts. Jihadis will cheerfully use civilians as human shields, especially women and children, and with the aid of our corrupt media will exploit any casualties as 'bleeders,' for propaganda purposes. It's a common tactic, one we've seen used in Gaza and Lebanon among other places. It is simply how they operate.

Just an aside,remember that the majority of these jihadis are 'moderate' Syrian rebels from groups like the al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusrah and are armed, trained and financially backed by the Obama Administration, Qatar and the Saudis.

The truth, of course is that at this point, the battle of Aleppo is almost finished and the jihadis there have one single objective...to delay things as much as possible so that the next flashpoint, the jihadi occupied city of Idleb near the Lebanese border can be fortified and reinforced.

So with this in mind, let's connect the dots.

Turkey, at this point is pretty much an Islamist dictatorship under the rule of Erdoğan and his AKP Party. He used the recent 'coup' attempt to cement his control over every aspect of Turkish society - the military, the police, the press, the government, the judiciary, you name it. Anyone remotely suspected of opposition to Erdoğan is rotting in Turkey's jails, especially if they were part of investigating or reporting on the many corruption scandals he and his family have been involved in.

Turkish public feeling has been manipulated quite thoroughly against Russia,Putin and Syrian Leader Assad over Aleppo, something that could not have happened without Erdoğan's consent.

Such things make a useful distraction for Erdoğan and his regime from other things going on in Turkey they might prefer Turks not concern themselves with just now. And in view of what Turkey's press has been serving up to them and the predominant Islamist mindset, I wouldn't be surprised if a number of Turks thought that Ambassador Karlov's murder was just what Russia had coming,particularly since Allah was invoked by the killer against the Russian infidels.

The killer himself, Mevlut Mert Altintas is a piece of the puzzle as well. He was no mere policeman,but a special forces officer, a member of Erdoğan's elite security squad. It's significant to me that several Turkish media outlets cited eye witnesses who saw him alive in police custody have all been scrubbed, and we're now being told he was killed in a shootout with police on the gallery's second floor. No witnesses except the police, of course and they're not talking. Neither is Mevlut Mert Altintas,since he's dead and can't be interrogated.

Erdoğan might well be ginning up public opinion to support him if Turkey decides to annex that juicy slice of northern Syria Putin allowed him to access with President Obama's connivance. Erdoğan is also undoubtedly aware of the Obama Administration's ongoing campaign to demonize Putin and Russia, and this could be his opening gambit to get Obama's support for Turkey if Erdoğan decides to challenge Russia.

Sunday, August 28, 2016

Turkey Invades Syria - To Attack The Kurds, Not ISIS

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Turkey's leader Tayyip Erdoğan has devoted some impassioned rhetoric to fighting ISIS, but until now that pretty much summed up Turkey's contribution...which makes sense if you think about it as I pointed out previously.

Actually, Turkey's relationship with the Caliphate has been relatively benign. Among other things, Erdoğan has allowed the purchase of ISIS oil by various Turkish middlemen, helping the terrorist army fund its operations. In some cases, those middle men include members of  Erdoğan's family. And through it all,  our 'NATO ally' Turkey has played a major role in allowing foreign fighters, weapons and oil to flow across the border.

What  Erdoğan has concentrated his military on is not ISIS but the Kurds, a U.S. ally and so far the most effective force on the ground battling ISIS.

On August 24th the Turkish military invaded Northern Syria. They used a contingent of 1,500 Turkish sponsored "Syrian rebels", aka Islamist jihadis from all over the world, accompanied by some Turkish special forces and twenty tanks to capture the city Jarablus at the Turkish-Syrian border. There's no question that this was pre-arranged in advance. ISIS moved all of its fighters and their families out of the city, and not a single shot was fired. After the 'victory' the Turkish flag was raised.

 Erdoğan's announced rationale is to get rid of "any terror activity on our borders."  He's also made it plain that he considers the Kurdish forces 'terrorists' and the equivalent of ISIS, even though the Kurds have been the ones actually fighting ISIS with the most success. He also issued an ultimatum to the Kurds to withdraw all of their forces and civilians below the Euphrates River.

Obviously, if keeping 'terrorists' away from his border was Erdoğan's chief concern, that could be accomplished by better border security on the Turkish side. A look at the map shows his real objective..to carve out a nice slice of Northern Syria and destroy the Kurds:


 http://www.moonofalabama.org/images5/jarablusmap.jpg

The Kurdish forces (labeled SDF by the U.S.) had previously advanced to the west and liberated the predominantly Kurdish city of Manbij from the Islamic State with the aid of U.S. air cover. And a new SDF Military Council was announced. But the man slated to head that  was assassinated a scant three hours  after the introductory press conference, with a fair amount of evidence pointing towards Turkish involvement in the murder.

Today, the Turkish military attacked Manbij, indiscriminately bombing and shelling civilians.The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said at least 40 civilians were killed in strikes on two areas. That's probably a very low figure. According to al-Arabiyah, SDF spokesman Shervan Darwish said the airstrikes and shelling started overnight and continued Sunday along the front line, killing many civilians in Beir Khoussa and nearby areas. He said the bombing also targeted Amarneh village. He said 50 Turkish tanks were taking part in the offensive.

Keep two things in mind here. First, if Erdoğan's 'Operation Euphrates' is successful, the Kurds are pushed into ISIS held territory without the defensive protective shield of the Euphrates River. And second, remember that these are U.S. backed allies we're talking about that our 'ally' Turkey is attacking in force and attempting to push to an indefensible position.

Wouldn't you expect the Obama Administration to intervene?

Of course they won't. They're simply standing aside and allowing Erdoğan's armies to do whatever they want to the Kurds. In fact, while all this has been going on, Obama's VP Joe Biden was making penitence in Ankara to Erdoğan. As a sign of massive disrespect to America and the Obama regime, Biden was met at the airport by -wait for it- the deputy mayor of Ankara.

This disgusting exhibition isn't just limited to Obama. For 30 years, successive administrations, the Bushes, Clinton and now Obama have betrayed the Kurds, one of our few real allies in the region, usually in favor of Turkey. Obama and his minions seem to be paying no attention to the fact that Turkey is already working on an alliance with Iran and Russia, with Erdoğan establishing a direct line of communication from Ankara to Syria's Bashar Assad and Turkish MiT Secret Service director Hakan Fidan visiting Damascus to discuss 'mutual cooperation.'

President Barack Hussein Obama has proven once again that actually being a U.S. ally is not only worthless but potentially lethal. Unfortunately, the Kurds have found that out again the hard way. But don't believe for a minute this won't have serious repercussions on America in the future.

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Putin Gets Slapped Badly - By Iran!!

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Russia's Vladimir Putin just suffered a major setback in the Middle East...delivered by no less than Iran's Supreme leader, the Ayatollah Khamenei.

A few days ago, there was a news story out that sent a shock through the foreign policy establishment here in the U.S. and elsewhere, that Russia would now base a squadron of its Tupolev 22M3 heavy bombers and support aircraft in Iran's Nojef airbase. This was, of course, a huge game changer and Russia's Foreign ministry proudly trumpeted the news in world media as a major sign of Russian dominance in the region.

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Except it wasn't. The whole thing blew up in the Russian's faces, and in a particularly humiliating way.

The deal was arranged by Iran's President Rouhani, who made the mistake of forgetting his place. He summoned the national supreme military council and, without consulting with Khamenei, simply informed them of his decision to make the Nojeh air base available to the Russian air force.

Aside from being angered that Rouhani made this decision without getting an OK from him, Khamenei was reportedly upset that the Russians showed every intent of making the base their permanent turf complete with sophisticate S-300 and S-400 defense systems to protect it. The last thing Khamenei and the ayatollahs want is a base deep in Iran controlled by a foreign country.

Khamenei orchestrated major disapproval from the Majlis, Iran's version of a parliament that actually does the bidding of the Ayatollah Khamenei and his Council of Guardians. It was more than enough to kill the deal and force the Russians out bag and baggage after just three sorties into Syria.

So the Iranian defense ministry spokesman Bahram Ghasemi announced in a press conference August 22nd that the Russian mission is over for now, that it was always only a temporary use base on a Russian request.

And if that wasn't enough of a slap, Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan insulted the Russians openly for “showing off” over the air base in an “ungentlemanly manner” and a "betrayal of trust."

"We have not given any military base to the Russians and they are not here to stay."

But wait, there's more.

The Russians make a fair amount of badly needed cash selling weaponry to other countries,including Iran. The Ayatollah Khamenei wasn't finished with them yet. He forced President Rouhani to make amends and show who really runs Iran by forcing Rouhani to be photographed posing with an Iranian-made Bavar-373 missile defense system and to tell the press that with this new, home manufactured system, Iran won't need to purchase any more expensive Russian S-300s, "because the Bavar-373 is just as good."

The Ayatollah was not just telling the Russians that Iran wouldn't be buying any more of what they had to sell, but that Iran was going to be further hitting them in the wallet by putting out a competing, less expensive alternative to potential customers.

While I felt I understood why he was doing it, I've written before that Vladimir Putin was making a huge mistake making common cause with Iran. It's the same mistake Stalin made with Hitler,supplying him with oil and other raw materials literally until the day Hitler's armies attacked him.

What Khamenei was reminding Putin that 'You're a useful infidel at present, but you're still an infidel.'

It's as simple as that.

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Why The West Is Doomed...

 https://balladeer.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/coexist-cartoon-2.png

Unless we make a major corrections and entirely change direction, what happened in Paris is just the beginning of the end, and the West is headed for horrendous consequences and perhaps even defeat.

It's been just a few days since the atrocity in Paris, and the response to it has been similar to other jihadist attacks. They range from the usual suspects actually excusing the brutality and talking about how it has nothing to do with Islam ala' Mrs. Clinton  to misdirected remarks for 'action' that resemble nothing so much as the old carny game of whack-a-mole, this time with ISIS as the target d'jour.





Walk with me awhile and let's examine the real problems we face, along with what's really involved in solving them.  I guarantee you won't be bored. I haven't seen much real analysis anywhere on how to actually win this conflict for obvious reasons,because they involve dealing with some uncomfortable realities. Here's a small spoiler preview...ISIS is neither the main problem nor even the main target.

From the first, we were lied to. According to President George W. Bush post 9/11, we were fighting a war on 'terrorism'. To President Obama and Mrs. Clinton, we're at war with 'extremism.' They all have their own reasons for misdirecting the American people, most of which have nothing to do with either the good of the United States or making any real progress in actually winning the conflict against the faux target they've created.

We're in a war, all right. And ISIS is just one of the players.It's high time we realized that rather than an ISIS problem, we have a major problem with Islam..in particular, with Islamic fascism and its adherents.And even worse, we have problems that could very well doom civilization and freedom as we know it if we continue along the present course.

The idea that we're fighting 'terrorism' or 'extremism' is especially ludicrous and using the terms are   a gross insult to our collective intelligence. 'Extremism' is a vague, dubious and deliberately subjective term designed to cloak reality in fog, and  'terrorism,' after all, is a common tactic of war, designed for one purpose and one purpose only - to erode an enemy's desire and ability to make war.

In the Middle Ages, a common tactic of waging war was to try to destroy the wealth of an enemy and its ability to support warfare by sacking towns and farmlands. Another example more familiar to Americans was General William T. Sherman's March To The Sea through the most productive part of the Confederacy, leaving a swath of destruction and desolation in their path. They burned Atlanta and other cities and towns  to the ground, destroyed not only military targets but civilian property and infrastructure, and lived off the land by 'foraging,' which essentially meant stealing whatever they found and leaving the civilians with a bare minimum to survive on if they were fortunate.The idea was to end the war by degrading the South's ability and will to fight, and it was very successful in that regard.

 William-Tecumseh-Sherman.jpg


We are not only fighting armies, but a hostile people, and must make old and young, rich and poor, feel the hard hand of war, as well as their organized armies. I know that this recent movement of mine through Georgia has had a wonderful effect in this respect. Thousands who had been deceived by their lying papers into the belief that we were being whipped all the time, realized the truth, and have no appetite for a repetition of the same experience. - General Sherman in a report to Union Chief Of Staff  General Henry Halleck, December, 1864.
Similar tactics were used in both world wars by both sides for similar reasons.

French President Hollande was entirely correct that the attack on Paris was an act of war, but it was not 'terrorism' or mindless carnage to no purpose. After all, France has been committing acts of war against ISIS by flying 200 air support missions against both combatants and civilians in ISIS territory since September of 2014.

The tactical idea involved also made sense - to remind the West that their cities and their civilians are also vulnerable and can be reached by ISIS.

Every master of strategic thinking whether its Clausewitz, Sun Tzu, General MacArthur or Napoleon has shared certain basic principles in common. They've all agreed that in order to successfully wage and win a war, you must have clear goals, know whom your enemy is and secure your base. To that, I'd add utilizing effective leadership and motivated forces.

Not only is the West not doing any of these things, it's doing its best to do the exact opposite. To really get perspective on that, let's look at how ISIS and other jihadist entities, both Sunni and Shi'ite are waging their war against us as opposed to  how we're doing whatever it is we've  been doing for the past decade and a half or so.

They have secured their bases, and there's little or no fifth column within. Anyone they even suspect of betrayal or less than full commitment to victory is immediately and ruthlessly dealt with. Both their enemies and their goals are clearly defined and marked out with formal declarations of war after the Islamic tradition, which both Osama bin-Laden and ISIS adhered to. On the Shi'ite side, Iran makes no secret of their hostility to us. They want death to America and President Obama is helping them get the tools for the job.

ISIS leaders and their fighters are dedicated, brave and more than prepared to fight and die for Allah and the Caliphate. The Paris attacks were carried out by young fighters willing to give their lives to accomplish their mission. So were their successful attacks on Iraqi forces who on paper outnumbered them and were far better equipped, courtesy of the American taxpayer.

In contrast, our leaders resort to the most tortuous euphemisms to avoid actually mentioning our real enemy or even establishing more than the most vague and general goals. Unlike al-Qaeda in it's heyday, The Muslim Brotherhood, The Taliban, Hizb' al-Tahrir and ISIS, there's no declaration of war by us and no defining of whom or what we're fighting at all.

Not only have they not secured our base, but our current leadership has actually enabled the breaching of those bases, encouraging mass migration from questionable Muslim countries where Islamism and jihadist thought are quite popular.

As a result of that migration and in particular America's tolerance and even appeasement of  Saudi and Emirate funded Muslim Brotherhood  front groups like CAIR, The North American Islamic Trust, The Muslim Public Affairs Counsel, The Islamic Society Of North America and others, a fifth column in America is rampant. Not only are young Muslims radicalized in mosques and madrassahs here by radical imams, but jihadist web sites and platforms like al-Jazeerah, or Jihad TV as I call it are readily accessible.

As opposed to the militaries of our opponents in this war, our severely scaled back forces have seen much of their best combat leaders and experienced combat troops forced into retirement or out of the service to make way for a military that  appears to be far more concerned with transgender rights, 'diversity' and placing women in combat roles regardless of whether they meet physical requirements to do so than concentrating on defeating our enemies.  Retention is at an all time low. And as for faith, even mentioning G-d is likely to get you reprimanded or even bounced out of the service - unless of course, you're talking aggressively about Islam's ultimate victory  over the Infidels and putting 'Soldier of Allah' on your official business card like Major Nidal Hasan, the Fort Hood murderer did.

Finally, our lack of decisive leadership speaks for itself. We have no strategy and no clear goals  and we haven't for years. President Obama isn't even following the old rule of  'at the very least, do no harm.'  His destabilizing the Middle East and paving the way for Iranian nuclear weapons is a nightmare his successors in office as well as the American people will have to face and it will not be pretty.

Again - and I can't emphasize this enough - we are in a war with Islamic fascism, and it's supporter are far from being as much of a minority as certain people would lead you to believe. And yes, is does have everything to do with Islam. There is nothing Boko Haram, Hamas,  Hezbollah, ISIS, the Taliban, Hizb' al Tarir, the Muslim Brotherhood, the Iranian regime or any of the other so-called 'extremists' are doing that is not sanctioned by the Qu'ran. Nothing.

That, by the way is very different from being in a war with Muslims. Many of them are decent and peaceful people. But Islam itself is not going to be reformed. It is a violent religion that brutalizes women and non-believers and was designed for world conquest. As Mohammed told his followers before he died in 632 CE, they are commanded to fight the infidels until they died, became Muslims or paid massive protection money or other tribute for their lives to Muslims and "felt themselves subdued."

In response to that command,The Faithful have killed and enslaved more people in the name of their religion than all other faiths combined, and perhaps even more than secular leftists like Stalin, Mao and Hitler. The Indian genocide alone might amount to as much as 15-20 million dead, as well as millions whom were enslaved. Islam isn't going to change, at least not yet and possibly never. So we need to take steps to protect ourselves and minimize the problem. Part of that is realizing that the weaker we get and the more we appease Islamic fascism, the more Muslims are going to go along for the ride and side with the triumphant Umma against the Infidel kuf'rs. Again, just look at Europe.

So how do we win? First, of course, we need strong leadership actually prepared to win. We have very little leadership in power in the West (which I'll use as a generic term for the non-Muslim world) right now. Based on the link I shared in paragraph two of this article, it's obvious that there's not a Democrat now running even vaguely qualified to be commander-in-chief, and the single one who was, Jim Webb got disgusted by the foul smell surrounding him coming from his party and ended his campaign. And neither our current president or our vice president are qualified either, as they've proven many times. We have no FDR, no Winston Churchill around today that is in power.

But assuming that resolves itself sometime in the near future, here's some quotes from something I wrote on the same topic way back in 2008, which I recommend you read in full for context. Regrettably, little has changed since then:

The second point in which I disagree with Professor Dershowitz is on the need for new rules in dealing with this menace.The old ones work quite well, although an intelligent and otherwise reasonable liberal like Professor Dershowitz shies away from them.

The US has dealt in the past with fanatical enemies as well as potential fifth columnists on its soil with great success. The way we did it was not by using half measures.

When World War II began, President Roosevelt took stern measures to secure the nation at home.For starters, he arrested and/or deported anyone with ties to our enemies who might have even remotely resembled a security risk. He gave the FBI carte blanche to wiretap,listen to phone calls and intercept suspect mail and transatlantic cables at will to protect the country. I myself once had had tea with an elderly woman who proudly showed me a medal she received after she steamed the stamp off of a letter and found a microfilm dot underneath that destroyed a dangerous espionage ring and sent six Nazi spies to the gallows.And perhaps most importantly, unlike the present administration, he engaged his fellow Americans in the task of security with a widespread publicity campaign warning against `loose lips that sink ships.' Using posters,speeches, the radio and the newspapers, the Roosevelt administration let the American people know that there was a significant security threat that could endanger the war effort and their freedom,and that their vigilance and help was needed.

On the battlefield itself, particularly in the Pacific,our military dealt with suicidal enemies not only by destroying them en masse but by taking the war to the Japanese home islands with a vengeance.There's no question in my mind that if the Japanese had not surrendered after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the US would likely have destroyed a substantial portion of the Japanese nation. As it was, that defeat of an honor/shame culture similar to the one we face today swept away the poisonous militaristic fascism in Japan and paved the way for a new beginning, just as it did in Germany.

As for legislating dangerous ideologies, our courts have been down this road before when faced with the communist conspiracy here in America in the 1940's and 1950's. Those laws exist,  are quite plain and provide a firm and above all constitutional foundation when it comes dealing with most to the problems we have in the US with some practitioners of Islam and the people overseas who export jihad into America. And a few perfectly constitutional tweaks would cover the rest.
I go on to site several applicable laws from  the US code of justice that apply to those attempting to subvert or overthrow the US or its Constitution or to engage in a conspiracy to do so. Nowadays, they would also combine with RICO and anti-Terrorism statutes, provided we actually had a president and a justice department willing to prosecute in the future.

 Those Muslims who advocates sharia law, the Islamization of America, or jihad against Americans who happen to be Jews or Christians obviously fit this definition. Likewise, anyone who gives material support to such causes does too. And let's not be coy about it - any Muslim advocating sharia law in America is advocating the overthrow of the first and fourteenth amendments as well as the statutes mandating equal protection, since sharia mandates inferior status for women and non-Muslims, and as such is in clear violation of our laws.

This also applies to the sort of texts the Saudis are pushing in the madrassahs they control financially and to those fiery Friday sermons preaching death to the Jews.

And by the way, that is NOT constitutionally protected speech.....and the Supreme court has always agreed, utilizing the test of a `clear and present danger'.
A re-visitation and tweaking of laws like the Smith Act of 1940 and the Internal Security Act of 1950 would provide further ammunition, as would a law banning foreign funding of political lobbying groups and religious entities. That would dry up funds for the Muslim Brotherhood fronts here and their building of jihadi mosques without violating the First Amendment. Surveillance of the existing mosques (about 80% of them are owned by the North American Islamic Trust, a Muslim Brotherhood front group) and suspect imams with deportation as a resource would be key to securing our base. Blocking al-Jazeera and jihadist web sites would likewise close off channels of jihadist indoctrination. I can't imagine why that isn't being done already.

Rather than the current charade at our airports and public places, we need to adopt Israeli-style profiling with a corps of highly trained and dedicated security personnel rather than expensive screens purchased from one of George Soros's companies that have been proven not even to work very well. And that goes double  for relying on unionized personnel actually trained in part by a Muslim Brotherhood front group with a long record of opposing US counter terrorism efforts, especially at airports.

And a ban on Muslim immigration from some of the obvious countries along with real border security would likewise help secure our base. It simply makes common sense, and all we need to do is see how well not doing it has worked out in Europe. Islam does not play well with others, and not only should we pretty much stop importing it, but we need to be alert to whom is practicing it and how it is practiced here in America. And we need to be  prepared to deport problem Muslims and Islamists unclear on the concept of America being a free society.

It is also necessary to forcefully show our political and elite class that we no longer have tolerance for their appeasing Islamists and jihad against the West for their own profit. A law that should be passed is one outlawing anyone in public service to accept employment or compensation in any form from a foreign government during their service and for at least 15 years after his or her retirement. This would eliminate what I call the 'golden magic carpet' pension plan financed by people like the Saudis and Emirates, among others. We must make an end to the funding of presidential libraries and foundations, the special 'business opportunities' the six figure speaking fees,honorariums and consulting fees showered on our politicians and others with influence after retirement in exchange for their loyal services performed while in office.

The actual military aspect is likewise self evident.

We have at present given billions of dollars and lots of military hardware to Muslim countries like Pakistan, Qatar and Lebanon (which means Hezbollah) that are by no means friendly to us in the least. Not only that, but we have spent more billions arming and training no less than 3 Arab armies who are definitely not our 'allies' in the least- Iraq, Afghanistan and the Palestinian Authority. The first  step is to be far more careful not to fund our enemies or undependable 'allies'.

The second step is restoring our military to its former strength and bringing back commanders like Generals Mattis, Ham and McCrystal. Our military when used needs to have clear goals and a strategy and to not be handcuffed by PC nonsense or ridiculous rules of  engagement. Their first order of business should be to kill people, break things and be victorious over our enemies.

The strategy part is extremely important. for instance, when we took out Saddam Hussein, we essentially removed the check to Iran's fascist regime. The same thing would happen if we decided to take out ISIS without curbing Iran. As Dick Cheney famously said about the Iran/Iraq War that cost a combination of a million casualties, "It's a pity they can't both lose."  Thanks to President Obama's abject stupidity and his appeasement of Iran, we're currently arming both sides of the current conflict, supplying arms and funding to Hezbollah via Lebanon and  doing the same thing to Jaish al-Fatah, the rebel 'Army of Conquest' for the Sunni rebels that has al-Qaeda allies as its main components and is no better than ISIS. We may end up being required to make sure that both Iran and ISIS lose, but if we do, we need to have clear goals, and declarations of war by Congress in the event we plan something more long term than a pre-emptive strike on Iran, for instance. In short, unlike before, we need to know what comes next and that should most assuredly NOT involve US nation building. In fact,having our military turn a militant and unrepentant jihadist haven into ashes, dead bodies and wreckage might be quite useful as a reminder and example to others who have forgotten whom we are and what we are capable of thanks to our failed leadership and their lack of resolve. It worked with Japan and the Nazis quite well.

Another step is cultivating and in some cases rebuilding relationships with real allies and partners, something Rome and Britain provided models for. President Obama has done his best to alienate them, but Egypt, Israel, and a strong and viable independent Kurdistan are obvious candidates in the region. And we need to make an attempt to come to an understanding with Russia's Vladimir Putin, who has actually done more to curb ISIS than we have. China, with their own problems with the violent Muslim Uighers is another possibility. So is India.

We can win this war provided we end our self defeating behavior. If not, we can look forward to a new dark age for our freedoms and our civilization. Those are the alternatives.

Friday, October 09, 2015

Breaking - US Arming Hezbollah With State-Of-The-Art Missiles

 

The U.S. delivered part of an $8.6 million military aid package to Lebanon today including laser-guided artillery shells and Hellfire air-to-surface missiles. This amounts to a doubling of military aid to Lebanon.

The story from the Obama Administration is that these munitions are to help Lebanon's military defend the country’s eastern border from what the State Department referred to as "violent extremists."

Just one thing...speaking of violent extremists, there's a peculiar thing about Lebanon's Army. Like the rest of Lebanon's military, it is now  totally integrated with Hezbollah. And it has been for years.

The armaments the Obama Administration is giving Lebanon will thus be freely available to  Hezbollah and used against Israel when the time comes.That's why the Israelis made a formal announcement  that if they were attacked from Lebanon again, unlike the last time they would consider it an attack on Israel by Lebanon, not just Hezbollah.

And it even gets worse than that.

Those extremists the Obama Administration  is blathering about?A reasonable person might think that would include Jaish al-Fatah, the Army of Conquest. These are the so-called  'moderates' funded, armed and trained by President Obama in conjunction with Turkey, Qatar and the Saudis. Jaish al-Fatah is primarily composed of 'moderates' like Ahrar ash-Sham, an officially designated terrorist group and  the al-Qaeda offshoot al-Nusrah.And they're right on Lebanon's border in Idlib province.

 

These are the same wonderful folks the Obama administration is complaining about Vladimir Putin conducting air strikes on:

“Greater than 90 percent of the strikes that we’ve seen them take to date have not been against ISIL or al Qaeda-affiliated terrorists,” said State Department spokesman John Kirby.

“They’ve been largely against opposition groups that want a better future for Syria and don’t want to see the Assad regime stay in power.
Al-Nusrah isn't affiliated with al-Qaedah? That's certainly not what they say. Read up on al-Nusrah and Ahrar ash-Sham. You'll quickly find out what kind of future these hard line Islamists want for Syria, and their differences with ISIS could basically be summed up by the phrase 'Who's going to be king of the mountain ?'

And by the way, this is exactly how ISIS was created...out of the Syrian Free Army funded, trained and armed by the Obama Administration, Turkey and Qatar.

What we have here is material aid to terrorism, something that is clearly against U.S. law except when President Obama does it. Even more, we're aiding both sides in this conflict who, whatever their differences hate us and have plenty of American blood on their hands.Our president's actions have already ensured that we lose out either way.

At least Russia's Vladimir Putin seems to know whose side he's on. And he seems to be actually taking on those 'Sunni extremists' and 'al-Qada affiliated terrorists' John Kirby was talking about.

As for me, I have to confess something. When my tax dollars are going to a government that funds groups that would happily murder me and my family let alone my friends in Israel, it is definitely food for thought.

Certainly I never want to hear this president or any of his minions talk about how they 'have Israel's back' when they're arming. training and funding genocidal terrorists.

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

The Real Story Behind Putin And Netanyahu's Moscow Meeting - Updated

 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, September21, 2015 (courtesy Israeli embassy in Russia)

The recent meeting between Israeli PM Benyamin Netanyahu and Russian leader Vladimir Putin has sparked the usual nonsense in the media, usually complemented by analysis from 'experts' in academia or a former security head or two - usually affiliated with the Leftist Labor party - long out of the loop.

Here's an outline on what actually went down, according to one of my notorious Little Birdies.

The Israelis actually welcome, in a sense, the new Russian base in Syria. They see it as a stabilizing force, and they also know that Russia is chiefly interested in preserving their ally Assad and their Mediterranean access via the Syrian port of Tartous.

Israel's chief concerns are the possible build up of a new terrorist front in the Golan Heights now that Iran has all that cash courtesy of President Obama, avoiding any clashes with Russian personnel now deployed in Syria and stopping any weapons shipments going to Hezbollah. The Israelis already understand that the Russian alliance with Iran means that Russia is going to be little or no help in dealing with Iran's nuclear threat.

Contrary to what you may be reading elsewhere, Russia did not request nor did Israel agree to any formal limits on its ability to intervene in Syria to stop weapons shipments to Hezbollah or terrorist attacks on the Golan. What Israeli chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gady Eisenkot and his Russian equivalent Gen. Valery Gerasimov agreed on was the establishment of a hotline between the Russian and Israeli general staffs.

This will connect the offices of Gerasimov’s deputy, Gen. Nikolay Bogdanovsky in Moscow and Eisenkot’s deputy, Gen. Yair Golan, in Tel Aviv. It is designed to facilitate communications and clarify things during or after Russian or Israeli military operations in Syria and to avoid any unnecessary clashes between the two military forces.

Israel has a similar setup with American forces in the region to facilitate military cooperation. Since Russia is by now the dominant source of non-native boots on the ground in the region, such an arrangement only makes sense.

Other possible topics for discussion likely involved an Israeli request that the Russians not introduce certain advanced weapons systems into the area. Israel had a similar deal with Putin in the past after successful Israeli strikes on Syrian bases storing arms bound for Hezbollah. That arrangement  exploded after Putin found out that President Obama had secretly moved 1,800 US troops to the Jordan border with Syria while the two of them were supposedly working on a diplomatic solution to Syria and the EU ended an arms embargo on the rebels in what was obviously a co-ordinated move.

Much is being made of Russian S-300 missile systems, but  the last time Putin shipped S-300s into the Middle East, the Russian Ship Arctic Sea was mysteriously hijacked en route to Iran, the S-300s were removed and disappeared and it was Israel's Mossad who told the Russians where they could find their ship, which had been boarded by a mysterious group of men posing as narcotics agents off the coast of Sweden some days earlier.
The Israelis have obviously had their hands on these for some time and figured out how to deal with them. And the Russian SAMS guarding Syria's nuclear site they set up in connivance with North Korea didn't have much effect on Israel's planes either, you'll recall.

Putin will likely continue to sell arms to Syria and Iran for transfer to Hezbollah, but will turn a blind eye on Israeli interdiction of those shipments as long as he gets paid and there are no major Russian casualties. He may also have agreed to avoid introducing certain weapons systems into the region like the Kornet missiles as part of this new understanding.

Netanyahu was quoted in the Times of Israel as saying that he told Putin in “no uncertain terms” that Israel will not tolerate Tehran’s efforts to arm Israel’s enemies in the region, and that Jerusalem has taken and will continue to take action against any such attempts. “This is our right and also our duty. There were no objections to our rights and to what I said. On the contrary: there was readiness to make sure that whatever Russia’s intentions for Syria, Russia will not be a partner in extreme actions by Iran against us.”

Putin responded by saying that the Syrian army was too bogged down in its own civil war to deal with fighting against Israel.

“All of Russia’s actions in the region will always be very responsible,” Putin said. “We are aware of the shelling against Israel and we condemn all such shelling. I know that these shellings are carried out by internal elements. In regard to Syria, we know that the Syrian army is in a situation such that it is incapable of opening a new front. Our main goal is to defend the Syrian state. However, I understand your concern.”

Putin tends to keep his agreements. We'll see how this one works out.

UPDATE: As Russian leader Vladimir Putin essentially blames the Obama Regime for the chaos in the Middle East (not without reason in my opinion I might add) there's some interesting speculation going on about what the Russian forces are actually up to.

According to the Daily Beast, Russian drones and planes are concentrating on Western Syria, particularly in areas a long way from where ISIS is just now.

This is yet another sign that Russia's key mission has far less to do with fighting terrorism and far more to do with supporting combat operations designed to keep Bashar al Assad in power. ISIS no longer has any presence in Idlib province or Latakia since more moderate rebels expelled them. Instead, the Russian deployment to the area comes at a time when more moderate opponents to the Assad regime are making military gains in northwestern Syria.


Now, what could the Russians be scoping out? These guys:



These gentlemen belong to Jaish al-Fatah, or the Army of Conquest. This group of moderate rebels, as the article calls them are being funded trained and armed by the Obama Administration and Turkey just like ISIS was when they were part of the Free Syrian Army, only this time it's Saudi Arabia taking the part of Qatar as a major funder. This is a picture taken in Idlib. Guess whom most of these moderate rebels are affiliated with?

Why,Ahrar ash-Sham, an officially designated terrorist group and our old friends the al-Qaeda offshoot al-Nusrah, of course. Jaish al-Fatah has taken over large chunks of Idlib province, including the provincial capitol.

It appears that the Russians are actually preparing to take out some Islamist jihadis while bolstering their ally, Assad.

Friday, August 14, 2015

'What Thy Right Hand Possesses' - The Rape of Kayla Mueller

 

According to people loosely identified by ABC as 'counter terrorism officials' American captive Kayla Mueller was repeatedly tortured and made a sex slave by the leader of ISIS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

Mueller's family confirmed to ABC News that government officials have told them that their daughter, who would have turned 27 today, was the victim of repeated sexual assaults by al-Baghdadi.

"We were told Kayla was tortured, that she was the property of al-Baghdadi. We were told that in June by the government," Kayla's parents, Carl and Marsha Mueller, told ABC News today.

Al-Baghdadi, an Iraqi who calls himself "Caliph" as ruler of the Islamic State, personally brought the enslaved 26-year-old humanitarian aid worker from Prescott, Arizona, to be imprisoned inside the home of Abu Sayyaf, a Tunisian in charge of oil and gas revenue for the group, counter-terrorism officials have told ABC News over the past several months.

"Baghdadi was at the house of Sayyaf. He delivered Kayla Mueller, live and in person," one of several counter-terrorism officials briefed on the case told ABC News.


These counter-terrorism officials claim they got this information from debriefings of at least least two Yezedi teenage girls who were also held as sex slaves in the Sayyaf compound as well as from the interrogation of Abu Sayyaf's wife Umm Sayyaf, who was captured in a U.S. raid. Kayla Mueller was reportedly killed by a Jordanian air strike last February.

 

The first thing that occurs to me is that it was incredibly cruel for the Obama Administration to tell Ms. Mueller's family these horrific details. Does any parent ever want to know that their abducted child died in pain and torment? Isn't it enough to know that they'll never see their loved one again?

I have a feeling the release of this news via ABC in this fashion is not coincidental. As I write this, President Barack Hussein Obama is arming and training a Syrian force known as 'The Army of Conquest' to fight ISIS and then Assad. The Army of Conquest (Jaish al Fata) is primarily composed of jihadis drawn from al Nusra and other Islamist groups, and the strategy Obama is pursuing is exactly how ISIS got started, as a part of the Free Syrian Army that this president  armed and trained in connivance with Qatar and Turkey without the knowledge of congress. Having built up one terrorist army and seen it go out of control and become ISIS, President Obama is now building up a second one to fight the first..ignoring the possibility that ISIS and Jaish al Fata might decide to join forces against Assad and the infidels. It might very well be that releasing a news story of this kind is designed to encourage the American people to pick sides and to embrace the Iran deal, with Hezboallah and Iran considered our new 'allies.' The Ayatollah Khameinei has said repeatedly that while Iran might fight ISIS on its own accord at a time of its choosing, the Iranians and their allies are definitely not going to operate in any sort of alliance with the  Great Satan. This, even though we're still arming Hezbollah and they're showing off their American weapons to the American advisers they're sharing bases with in Iraq.

If this seems like an insane 3 ring circus with the Obama Administration arming and training both sides of this conflict and no clear direction or strategy in mind, you get no argument from me. You can't make this stuff up.

Another thing to consider...while as usual the Obama Administration is carefully steering away from even mentioning the word 'Islam' it is worth knowing that this behavior is religiously sanctified by sharia and  the Qu'ran,  in verse 33.50 ("O Prophet! We have made lawful to thee thy wives to whom thou hast paid their dowers; and those (slaves) whom thy right hand possesses out of the prisoners of war whom Allah has assigned to thee" Pikthal translation) as well as 23.5-6. 4.24 and numerous other places.

This is not to say that all Muslims are rapists of non-Muslim women or that non-Muslims never rape captive women. But only in Islam is it religiously sanctified. The Bible actually forbids such practices and was the first recorded document to give women in that situation any rights at all, as laid out in Leviticus. But based on the Qu'ran, what happened to Ms. Mueller, a captive, is fully in accord with sharia. Mohammed himself took many sex slaves.

President Obama is bringing a lot of Muslims into America via diversity visas and refugee asylum programs similar to Europe's from countries like Syria, Somalia, Pakistan and other countries where sharia law based on the Qu'ran is practiced and the traditional cultures are built around these beliefs, including honor killings and FGM ( female genital mutilation).

Ironically enough, Kayla Mueller, who was something of a career activist actually worked for a while with the pro-terrorism International Solidarity Movement, whom supports the Palestinian Authority and Hamas where these practices occur with distressing regularity.

At last count, something like 800,000 Muslims have entered the US under these programs since Barack Obama took office and the screening has been fairly minimal. As I write this, another surge of refugees to America is being planned for Syrian Muslims by the Obama Administration with screening done not by our FBI but by the UN.

Europe has seen major problems develop by importing huge amounts of Muslims, many of whom are not at all compatible with European culture, are disproportionately on public assistance, want to impose sharia in their new home countries, and strongly resist assimilation. Crime among Muslim refugees in Europe is rampant, especially rapes involving Muslim males and non-Muslim females. For example, Stockholm, Sweden, once relatively crime free for a city its size has experienced a 300% increase in crime since it began importing substantial numbers of Muslim refugees into the country. Rapes have increased to the point where Sweden is one of the rape capitols of the world, with the second highest number of rapes per capita of any country on earth.

The vast majority of these rapes are committed by Muslim immigrants or their teenage sons whom may hardly think of these infidel women as anything more than 'what thy right hand possesses.'

Whether we want to change America in this fashion is a conversation the Obama Administration refuses to even consider, but I think it's a conversation we deserve to have as a nation, and sooner rather than later.

All human beings are equal, but cultures are not.As Kayla Mueller discovered too late, she wasn't in Arizona anymore.

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Syria Splits Apart As Assad Digs In Against ISIS

 

While a lot of attention is being paid to ISIS's successes in Iraq, few people have been watching the changes going on in Syria.

As I predicted just shy of three years ago, Syria, a made up country to begin with appears to be fracturing pretty much along the lines I saw back then.

Assad's hold on Syria depended on two things - how long the carnage could continue on one side or the other before it reached the point of no return and how long the Russians, Hezbollah and Iran would continue to support him. That point has apparently been reached with a quarter of a million deaths and the reduction of Assad's army from its beginning strength at 300,000 to something like 175,000 men from Assad's regular army, pro-regime Syrian militias and foreign fighters mostly from Hezbollah and Iran.

He simply no longer has the forces necessary to hold all of Syria. And his allies are gradually moving on.

The latest gain for ISIS was their successful offensive on the ancient city of Palmyra in Eastern Syria,which gave them a strategic path to assaults on the regime's key cities of Homs and Hama. If they're successful, they would literally cut off Damascus from the rest of Assad's territory.

The victory by Isis was celebrated Old School style:
Islamic State militants have executed at least 400 mostly women and children in Syria’s ancient city of Palmyra

Eye-witnesses have reported the streets are strewn with bodies – the latest victims of the Islamic State’s unrelenting savagery – on the same day photographs of captured Syrian soldiers have emerged.

It follows the killing of nearly 300 pro-government troops two days after they captured the city, now symbolised by a black ISIS flag flying above an ancient citadel.
http://i.ytimg.com/vi/XMJrSK9zL8c/0.jpg


As an added bonus, ISIS freed a large number of jihadis held in Palmyra's notorious Tadmur Prison.

What Assad is hoping for now is that he has enough troops to hold on to his strategic corridor in North and west Syria..Damascus, Homs and Hama and the coast areas of Latakia and Tartus, key cities where the majority of Alawites, Assad's Shi'ite oriented sect live.

What he's doing is attempting a strategic withdrawal into territory his forces are better able to hold,something his allies are likely insisting on because their own commitments are becoming strained.

For the Russians, supplying Assad with the tools of the trade has become an expensive proposition, one Russia has increasing difficulty meeting. Putin is still selling Assad ammunition and other supplies, but the Russians have cut way back on the more expensive toys like attack helicopters and are taking a wait and see attitude.

As Hezbollah's casualties have increased in Syria, its leader Sheik Nasrallah has come under massive pressure to cut back on the number of troops being sent to Syria from Lebanon. Hezbollah troops are still fighting in Qalamoun along the Lebanese border,one of the few areas where the Assad regime is taking the offensive, but massive casualties incurred during Assad's failed offensive in February on Aleppo have taken their toll.

This all puts a great deal of pressure on Iran. Aside from the financial cost, the strategic cost is huge. As Assad is forced into a defensive redoubt, the Shi'te bloc Iran thought it was creating from Tehran to Beirut is increasingly unlikely, especially with the pressure ISIS is putting on Iran's Shi'ite allies in Iraq. They will undoubtedly have to commit a lot more resources, human and otherwise just to keep Assad holding on.

For Basher Assad, his task will be to hold on to Damascus, the highways between Damascus and Beruit and Damascus and Homs, as well as the coast cities like Latakia and Tartous. With his reduced supply lines and less territory to defend, Assad has a decent shot at hanging on, especially since his part of Syria would contain about half of the country's population.

And the rest? The Kurds, at least the ones in the enclave just across the border from Iraqi Kurdistan will likely link up, as will the ISIS held areas within those two countries, providing Assad manages to hold on. One wild card in the deck is al-Nusrah, officially an ISIS ally, but my sources tell me they're making noises about a mini-emirate of their own in the territory they hold in the North around Idlib.So we could even see a three way shootout.

 And if Assad can't hold, especially Damascus, we're looking at a major bloodbath, even by Syria's standards. And Iran and Hezbollah maybe faced with either being split by ISIS or committing to a major war.

Oh, by the way, both al-Nusrah and ISIS are now essentially on Jordan's northern border, and Israel's Golan.

UPDATE: ISIS, following up on their victory in Palmyra made a classic strategic move with an assault in Aleppo Province on the small town of Sawran, which they now control.

From Sawran, ISIS is within striking distance of the small city of Azaz on the Turkish border. Azaz is now held by the al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Nusra and their militia allies from Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham and Liwaa Al-Tawheed. They also hold much of Aleppo, Syria's second largest city and its commercial hub.

If ISIS takes Azaz, they control not only the main border crossing from Turkey but al-Nusra's life line into Aleppo for supplies, arms and fighters. ISIS would control Aleppo, and it would be only a matter of time until they take the city.

This was a smart move for ISIS. The al-Nusrah forces have not recovered yet from Assad's unsuccessful assault on Aleppo, and neither have Assad's forces,whom are busy consolidating their lines anyway. So rather than drive directly from Palmyra towards Homs and Hama, ISIS is eliminating a rival (I doubt we'll hear anymore about a separate al-Nusrah emirate), setting the stage to take Aleppo and then hit Assad from two points - in the southeast from Palmyra toward Homs and Hama and from Aleppo in the northeast.

These are the people our dysfunctional president laughed off as 'the jay vee team' in between golf games.

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Traces of Chemical Weapons Found at Undeclared Site in Syria

2015-05-10_100225_Syria_Chemicals

By David Gerstman

Late Friday afternoon Reuters had a huge scoop. Inspectors found traces of prohibited chemical weapons at a previously undeclared site in Syria.
Samples taken by experts from the Organisation for the Prohibition and Chemical Weapons (OPCW) in December and January tested positive for chemical precursors needed to make the toxic agents, the sources told Reuters on the condition of anonymity because the information is confidential.

“This is a pretty strong indication they have been lying about what they did with sarin,” one diplomatic source said. “They have so far been unable to give a satisfactory explanation about this finding.” …

The diplomatic sources said the sarin and VX nerve samples were taken from the Scientific Studies and Research Centre, a government agency where Western intelligence agencies say Syria developed biological and chemical weapons.

After it was established that Syria had used chemical weapons against civilians in a Damascus suburb, President Barack Obama said that he would seek Congressional authorization to use force. But in the end chose the path of diplomacy to deal with Syria’s breach of international conventions by using chemical weapons. The deal, agreed to with Russia, a patron of Syria, called for Syria to declare all of its chemical weapons sites, destroy their chemical stores and destroy their means for making them.

At the very least, Friday’s news means that Syria did not fully comply with its obligations under the deal. At the worst it suggests that despite the hoopla about Syria destroying thousands of tons of chemical agents, Syria has an active chemical weapons program still remaining. (This is in addition to Syria’s use of chlorine, which is prohibited for use as a weapon, even if chlorine is not prohibited to possess.)

This wouldn’t be the first time Syria has been caught cheating. In October of last year Syria admitted to having four chemical weapons facilities that it had not previously declared. Worse than that, The New York Times reported in January that the administration had informed Assad that the United States will train rebels to fight ISIS, not Syria.

So how did Obama announce the deal?

I welcome the progress made between the United States and Russia through our talks in Geneva, which represents an important, concrete step toward the goal of moving Syria’s chemical weapons under international control so that they may ultimately be destroyed. This framework provides the opportunity for the elimination of Syrian chemical weapons in a transparent, expeditious, and verifiable manner, which could end the threat these weapons pose not only to the Syrian people but to the region and the world. The international community expects the Assad regime to live up to its public commitments.

While we have made important progress, much more work remains to be done. The United States will continue working with Russia, the United Kingdom, France, the United Nations and others to ensure that this process is verifiable, and that there are consequences should the Assad regime not comply with the framework agreed today. And, if diplomacy fails, the United States remains prepared to act.

Following the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons to kill more than 1,000 men, women, and children on August 21, I decided that the United States must take action to deter the Syrian regime from using chemical weapons, degrade their ability to use them, and make clear to the world that we will not tolerate their use. In part because of the credible threat of U.S. military force, we now have the opportunity to achieve our objectives through diplomacy. I spoke to Secretary Kerry earlier today and thanked him for his tireless and effective efforts on behalf of our nation. I also spoke to Ambassador Samantha Power who will ably lead our follow-on negotiations at the UN Security Council in New York.

Sentiments similar to those in the two phrases bolded above are regularly said by the President and the administration official regarding the nuclear deal with Iran. The president insists that the deal with Iran will be verifiable, and that Iran will be subjected to unprecedented inspections and that any violations will be met with a snap back of the sanctions regime.

But when we see that there are no consequences to Syria for violating a verifiable deal to get rid of its chemical weapons, what lesson should we draw about future violations by Iran of any deal that it agrees to regarding its illicit nuclear program?

After Obama failed to react to Syria’s deadly use of chemical weapons, crossing a “red line” as the president put it, I wrote, “the only people whose interpretation of the ‘red line’ comment matter are Bashar Assad and Ali Khamenei.”

Cross posted at Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion