Meet The Blogger Who Predicted Eric Cantor's Defeat

That would be my good friend and Watcher's Council colleague Tom White from VA Right!, as Tom Schaefer over at Newsmax relates:

 The mainstream media is claiming no one could have foreseen Dave Brat's stunning defeat of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in Tuesday's Virginia 7th Congressional District GOP primary, but one man did, and detailed it all in a blog post one day earlier.

"Perhaps not since the Chicago Daily Tribune’s infamous 'Dewey Defeats Truman' headline has the political press been so badly blindsided by an election result," Paul Fahri wrote Wednesday in a nuanced mea culpa in The Washington Post.

As Fahri's "political press" was missing the story, a veteran Virginia conservative activist was writing a startlingly accurate description of just why Cantor was in trouble and just how good the chances were that he could lose.

Tom White, editor of the Virginia Right! blog, is a longtime conservative activist who proudly boasts that he has lived in that state's Hanover County since 1983.

In an eerily precise post on the site Monday night titled "Predicting Tomorrow's Dave Brat/Eric Cantor Primary Race," White mentioned the difficulty in forecasting primary elections before getting right to his point: Cantor's seat was in danger.

"This race is not easy to predict by polls. We know it is not a landslide for either side. But I promise you, Eric Cantor is nervous and has every reason to be. And Dave Brat should be cautiously optimistic — and has every reason for the optimism," White wrote.

He then called the very outcome that in the end spelled doom for Cantor.

"I can say with 100% certainty that the people who turned out in 2012 and voted for Eric Cantor will not be doing so in 2014," White wrote.

White listed several reasons for Cantor's lack of appeal to 7th District voters.

"A majority of Dave Brat’s supporters voted for Eric Cantor in 2012. And there are quite a few Cantor supporters that are unhappy with Cantor’s stance on Amnesty, his failure to take away funding from Obamacare and Cantor’s lack of participation in the community. Many of Cantor’s supporters are angered and embarrassed by Cantor’s use of "slating" to disenfranchise Republican voters. And many of them feel Cantor does not deserve their vote. So they will stay home."

"Slating is the process of taking away the votes of a large number of delegates and giving them to a handful of hand-picked individuals," White explained to watchdog.org in May. "In the Virginia Beach [convention] case, more than 1,000 delegates had their votes stripped away and given to 34 people handpicked by the Cantor team."

The move, which was overturned on appeal, increased antipathy for Cantor among grassroots Republicans.

"I think it is a safe bet that the 37,000 votes Cantor received in 2012 will be far more than he will receive tomorrow," White concluded in his prediction post.

More at the link.

Final Election Predictions, Featuring Weekend Monkey

Well this is where the pedal hits the metal as they say.It's time for me to make my final election predictions, along with the able assistance of Joshua Pundit's political guru, ace handicapper and former Democrat presidential candidate Weekend Monkey.

RM: Hello Monkey, and thanks for joining us.

WM: Your pleasure, I'm sure Rob. Howdy Doody, primates!

RM: @##!#. Always the inflated ego...

WM: Hee hee hee! Lemme tell ya, I'm feeling good about tomorrow!

RM: Let me guess. I know you've been campaigning for Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts...I take it you favor her chances tomorrow.

WM: Oh, you betcha Rob. And that translates into a lot of shekels for yours truly in election action, plus a high level staff position in DC when she gets in.

RM: I should have known. Anyway,  you want to do the Senate first or the presidential race?

WM: Let's start at the top and work down.

RM: OK, fire away.

WM: It's really too close to call, but I see it leaning towards President Obama narrowly winning a second term..probably after some controversy among the primates:








It's really pretty simple. I see Romney the Robot narrowly getting frozen out of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. And I mean narrowly. If even one state changes, it could go the other way. Let's call it 5-3 Obama.

Ohio is gonna be the poop storm, with a lotta weirdness in Cuyoga and Mahoning Counties that could leave us hanging on the branch for a long time, but in the end it's gonna come down to Ohio. If that goes Obama's way, he wins.Otherwise, Romney the Robot gets in.

RM: So you don't see Romney taking either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin?

WM: Y'know, anything's possible, But if I gotta make a call, I say Obama takes it overall. Especially Ohio, because a lot of the primates have jobs still, unemployment's relatively low, you got the unions and the Cleavland Machine. And they're all organized because of Governor Kasich trying to pull a Scott Walker on the public employee unions and getting his pee pee slapped.

RM: Speaking of governors, what did you think  of Chris Christie cozying up to Obama and dissing Romney, essentially telling him he wasn't welcome in Jersey to tour the storm areas?

WM: Ah hee hee hee! I got a real laugh outta that! Look, it's simple. Lardass is ticked off because he didn't run, he's looking at 2016 and the only way that opens up for him is if Romney the Robot loses. Simple as that.

RM: Makes sense. I never liked him anyway. The House?

WM: I say it stays ReThug, with maybe 3-5 seats changing hands.

RM: The Senate?

WM: Hee hee!  Worst case,  my Democrats will probably lose Virginia, North Dakota, Nebraska, Montana.  They'll make pickups in Massachusetts and Maine, where the indy guy King will caucus with us Donkeys.Maybe another pickup in Indiana, depending on turnout.And we'll keep Florida.Probably Missouri too.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin  are wild cards. If they go Democrat like I think they will,  we get those too. They might end up splitting, one apiece.

The ReThugs make pickups in Virginia, North Dakota, Montana and Nebraska. They'll keep Arizona and Nevada, maybe Indiana.They lose Massachusetts and Maine. They might get either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, depending.

Bottom line? Including two indies, my Democrats end up with 49 seats maybe 50-51 if we get Indiana and either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. The ReThugs end up with 49, 48 if they lose Indiana.To get control of the senate, they'd have to hang on to Indiana somehow and get both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, or maybe Missouri which I don't see happening at all.

RM: You predicted a divided Senate before.

WM: Yup. It could shake out that way. OK, whaddya got?

RM: I see Romney winning.

WM: Cheez, what a surprise!

RM: Hey now...

WM: Alright, alright.

RM: Here's how I see it, but just like with your map, mine is subject to some changes..it really is a  pretty close race to predict.




With the economy the way it is, and the other issues of Obama's presidency, I see Romney taking Virginia, Florida, Colorado and North Carolina pretty decisively. I also think he's going to take two  of the Big Four in the Midwest, most likely Ohio and Wisconsin, although the last polls I saw that meant anything show Pennsylvania and Michigan tied up. I think there's a very good chance that Ohio and Pennsylvania might switch columns, with Romney taking the Keystone State and Obama getting Ohio by a narrow margin because of the factors you mentioned.Especially with Obama's EPA already salivating publicly at crippling coal for good.

WM: You see Romney taking Iowa and New Hampshire?

RM: Yeah, but with this scenario if he loses them both he still wins.

WM: Yeah, I can see that.You better hope he takes Colorado then,,,,

RM: I think he will. For what it's worth I agree with you  Monkey, it's going to come down to the Big Four in the Midwest.Obama has to take both Pennsylvania and Ohio to win.

WM: You see the Elephants keeping the House?

RM: Of course, Monkey. With a  maximum loss of 3-5 seats. Which means that even if you're right and Obama does get re-elected, Darrel Issa still has subpoena powers and Obama might wish he lost tomorrow in a couple of years.

WM: Ouchie! You got a point there!

RM: Here's how I see the Senate. OK, the Dems  lose Virginia, North Dakota, Montana and Nebraska. I personally think there's an excellent chance of one or two more GOP  pickups in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Maybe Florida if Romney wins decisively enough. I think Tammy Baldwin's lunatic fringe lefty ideas don't play well in the Badger State anywhere outside Madison and Dane County, and there's also the Catholic vote to consider in both PA and Wisconsin. And with Paul Ryan on the ticket, Scott Walker surviving the recall and  Wisconsin  being RNC head Preibus' home state, I think it's looking pretty good for Romney and for Tommy Thompson.The GOP hangs on to Arizona and Nevada.

The Republicans probably lose Massachusetts and definitely lose Maine. And probably one of either Missouri or Indiana, although I think Mourdock has a shot at surviving in Indiana. So that puts us at between 49 and 52 seats for the GOP, depending on what happens in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Missouri and Indiana.

I pretty much see the  Democrats' scenario the same way you do, including the two indies. I'd like to think the people of Massachusetts  have more brains than to put someone like Elizabeth Warren in the Senate -

WM: HEY!

RM: Nothing personal Monkey.

WM: Besides, it is Massachusetts....

RM: You got that right. Anyway, I also see a split senate as a real possibility. So there it is...

WM: I gotta tell you something Rob...you know that video of that little primate crying and saying she was tired of Bronco Bama and Mitt Romney? I feel the same way. I wanna get this thing over with.

RM: Me too Monkey. I think a lot of people feel that way. Two years for a political campaign is just to damned long, and I'll be relieved when it's over and done with. You ever think of running for something again?

WM: You know me Rob. I'm a political animal and I see my opportunities and take 'em. Hee hee!

RM: Spoken like a Democrat, Monkey. Thanks for swinging by.

WM: See ya later Rob. Smell Ya later, Primates.



Weekend Monkey was a Democratic candidate for president in 2008 and is JoshuaPundit's political Guru. He can be reached at wendmonkey@yahoo.com

U Of CO Study That Correctly Predicted The Last 8 Elections Updates, Still Says Romney Will Win

You might recall a piece I wrote back in August about a University of Colorado study that has correctly predicted the winner of the last 8 elections. Unlike most such studies, the model used by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

The track record on this study,published in the journal of the highly respected American Political Science Association is pretty impressive. They've gotten every election right since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran in 1980 and 1992.

Back in August, Professors Bickers and Berry predicted a victory for Mitt Romney. They gave themselves wiggle room because the data they used then was taken five months in advance of the election, and they promised to to update it with more current economic data in September.

Well their update is out:

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.{...}

The Bickers and Berry model includes both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August rather than May, and changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March. It is the last update they will release before the election.

Of the 13 battleground states identified in the model, the only one to change in the update was New Mexico -- now seen as a narrow victory for Romney. The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada.

In Colorado, which Obama won in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 53.3 percent of the vote to Obama’s 46.7 percent, with only the two major parties considered.

Like last time, the professors make a point of stating that that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall in what they term 'an unexpected direction.' But they still predict a solid Romney win.

My take? While I love the results shown, I think they're a bit optimistic.For instance, I see Mitt Romney winning either Ohio or Pennsylvania, but not both, and Barack Obama winning Minnesota. And I'm not sure about Wisconsin. That still gives Mitt Romney a win with 285 electoral votes even if Obama takes Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, New Mexico, and Wisconsin.

And I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Obama losing a couple of those states, especially Nevada, where unemployment is out of control.

Personally, I see Romney winning the popular vote and getting something in the low 300's electorally,(I'll be making in depth predictions closer to the election) but this study, given its track record is definitely good news.