New IAEA Report On Iran: 'Making Nuclear Weapons'

The new IAEA report on Iran's nuclear program makes it pretty clear:

Yukiya Amano, the organisation’s director-general, is unlikely to draw a definitive conclusion that Iran is making nuclear weapons, but according to Western diplomats the facts will make any other conclusion implausible.

They believe the IAEA has substantiated evidence from intelligence reports, interviews with Iranian scientists and on-the-ground inspections that Iran is carrying out a nuclear weapons programme in parallel to its civilian energy goals.

The agency will sound the alarm over Iranian scientists’ work to develop a ballistic missile warhead capable of carrying a nuclear device. It has already uncovered evidence that Iran has been carrying out research into triggers for nuclear weapons.

Inspectors have also questioned Iranian scientists on simulation programmes that they believe are designed to design and test a potential weapon.

“This is the product of a vast amount of work by the IAEA which will show the level of evidence they’ve accumulated and make clear a number of supplementary indications they have uncovered,” said a Western diplomat. “It makes an inescapable case that Iran has ambitions to militarise the uranium it has been enriching at its production facilities.”

Another official said: “The Iranians have been very evasive, and quite clever about it at times. It’s been difficult to discover the smoking gun. But this will be more detailed than before. The director-general will point to black holes in the Iranians’ explanations. It will undoubtedly increase the pressure.”

The irony is that this all could have been dealt with with a lot easier and a lot simpler had it been tackled before.But we were busy nation building with President Bush's Arab democracy fetish in Iraq while the real threat was metastasizing just across the Persian Gulf.

I'll repeat what I wrote yesterday..President Obama's preferred scenario is to try and use the threat of an Israeli strike on iran as leverage to try and get support from Russia and China for actual, punitive sanctions on Iran rather than military action.

The whole idea of sanctions is a non-starter, since China and Russia will hardly abide by any sanctions if there's business to be had. Neither will Germany, for that matter. And in any event, Iran is too far advanced now along the nuclear path.But expect that same old failed gambit to be tried again.

If there is a military strike on Iran, either the Israelis will do it alone if the West fails to with the Saudis looking the other way as the IDF flies over their territory or it will be a NATO strike led by the US and the UK with perhaps with a smattering of Arab forces in a coalition. and if it happens, it will come at a time of maximum advantage for President Obama's re-election campaign, with the Israeli role limited to intel, recon and keeping Iran's proxies in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria busy, so as not to complicate things with the Muslim world.

In any event, the IAEA report means that this can't be swept under the rug any more.

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