Operation Mullah Stomp: The military option on Iran

Now that the President has unveiled his strategy on Iraq,it appears that even he, four years down the road has finally realized that the key to success in Iraq - and victory in this war- lies in dealing successfully with Iran.

The conventional wisdom voiced by a number of people, including the infamous Iraq Study Group, is that it's necessary to `negotiate' with the genocidal regime in Iran in order to extricate ourselves from Iraq...and as part of a comprehensive `Middle East peace settlement'.

Negotiations between nations only work when two factors are present: first, both nations must be convinced that they have something to gain by negotiating that they can't obtain any other way, and second, both nations must be convinced of the other party's trustworthiness and willingness to keep agreements.

I think we can safely say, based on that, that negotiations with Iran are pretty much a non-starter.

We're also told ad nauseum by the usual suspects that a military option is out of the question, even though Iran is actively involved with what a previous generation of Americans would have considered acts of war. And that we should concentrate on diplomacy and on isolating Iran.

I can sympathize with such feelings, given how well the Bush Administration has handled the occupation and the `nation building' adventure in Iraq. But the fact remains that Iran regards itself in a war with the Great Satan, and as is typical with such regimes, things will only escalate.

This bears repeating: Iran regards itself as being at war with us, and has been conducting itself accordingly. And the only question that remains is whether we fight at a time of our choosing, or theirs.

Iran, frankly, has no choice but war or expansion, rather like Hitler's Germany or Tojo's Japan. It's oil exports are dropping by 13% per year because of obsolete equipment, corruption and a paucity of foreign investment. Inflation is in double digits, and nobody wants the rial - anything Iran buys is reckoned in dollars or euros. Iran admits to 15% unemployment ..in the `cannon fodder bracket' ages 18-39, it's more like 30%. It would even be higher if the mullahs hadn't resorted to the classic technique of despots and picked up part of the slack with government hiring in the army, baseji militia and security services.

Likewise, any thoughts about the international community, sanctions and `isolation' ignores the fact that the mullahs have something to sell that the world wants very badly, and that Russia and China and perhaps some of the European nations will not cooperate with any `isolation'. It's worth their while not to.


I had my own ideas about what a proper strategy for Iran would involve, and with that in mind I consulted some professional military who have long been members and contributers in Joshua's Army.

We came up with similar conclusions...the Iranian regime is extremely vulnerable to defeat and humiliation if we properly utilize a military option.

Here are some points to consider:

• Just taking out Iran's nuclear facilities, even if completely successful is a desirable end in itself, but does nothing by itself to eliminate Iran as a threat or as a focal point of terrorism and jihad against the west.It merely delays the game a few years. So any military option that's pursued needs to consider how to eliminate both a potential nuclear threat and conventional military and terrorism attacks, to the degree it's possible.

• In the event of things escalating, Iran has three main points of attack to pursue against us: conventional attacks against our forces in Iraq, (probably aided by the Iraqi Shiite militias we so stupidly allowed Iran to arm and train), a naval shut down of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, and terrorist attacks here in the US through its network of Hezbollah cells. A proper line of attack should minimize if not totally eliminate those threats.

• The US should be willing to do this unilaterally, since most of our allies have pretty much said they're disinclined to get involved, and be prepared to accept significant political fallout both domestically and internationally, seeing as how the US unfortunately signed on to a bunch of toothless UN sanctions last week.

Crazy as it sounds, Iran's threat to the US, at this point in time, is mostly conventional. Let's start there.

About 40% or so of the world’s crude oil passes through the Persian Gulf via the Straits of Hormuz, a narrow channel that's only about 21 miles wide at its narrowest point.

The Straits border on Iran and the Sultanate of Oman, with the oil tankers protected by international agreement and patrolled by a multinational naval force, including US vessels.

Iran has made it very clear that it wants to gain control of the Straits, so that it can control the oil and gas flow for the region. It's already been threatening a cut-off of oil traffic if the UN imposes any further sanctions in connection with Iran's nuclear program. The mullahs claim they have the power to totally halt the oil supply from the Gulf and blackmail the world economy.

In April of this year, Iranian armed forces staged what they called the “Holy Prophet war games” in the Gulf, launching new types of anti-ship missiles and demonstrating what it could look like if Iran decided to get nasty and cut off traffic in the Straits. In addition, the Iranian navy reportedly has contingency plans to close the Straits of Hormuz in the event of war using anti-ship missiles, coastal artillery, mines, submarine attacks and even explosive-packed suicide motor boats. Meanwhile, Iran’s land based missile launchers would target strategic oil facilities around the Gulf rim, including in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait.

Even an Iranian threat to shut down the Straits would cause tanker traffic to decrease, oil prices to spiral upwards, and cause major havoc with the world economy.

Sounds scary, right? But here's the good part: Iran can't shut down the Persian Gulf without shutting down its own oil cash flow. The mullahs are in a trap of their own making.

Almost 90 percent of the mullahs’ oil facilities are located either in or near the Gulf. So is the nuclear reactor that Russia is building for Iran at Bushehr. And almost all Iranian oil production needs free access to the Gulf if Iran’s oil is to reach the market.

So the same threat Iran is using to blackmail the world into acquiescing to Iran as an aggressive nuclear armed world power and leader of the global jihad is a double edged sword that provides the key to defeating them, reducing the Iranian threat and isolating them until the regime (and their economy) collapses or Iran evolves to the point that they learn to conduct themselves in a civilized and peaceful manner.

So here's how a forceful and successful operation against Iran it might look:

The first step would involve the US deploying a fleet in or near the Gulf of Oman, including minesweepers, at least two carrier strike groups, guided missile destroyers, submarines and anti-submarine ships , with another fleet on standby in the Indian Ocean. The U.S. Navy could also deploy drones and subs to keep watch above and below against any Iranian missile threat to our fleet. This would make it clear that we would not allow any interruption of tanker traffic in either the Gulf of Oman or the Straits. We could then be in a position to protect non-Iranian shipments while blockading all shipments of Iranian oil.

To back this up, we would need to launch a comprehensive air/ naval strike aimed at Iran's ports, navy ships, air-defense systems, air-force bases and communications systems, and especially its missile launching sites along the Gulf coast. The attack could also target Iran’s nuclear facilities—not only the known sites but the infrastructure- the bridges, tunnels and roads - to stop Iran from simply moving materials and/or production from one site to another.

But the main objective of the attack would would be Iran's weakest link....it's gasoline refineries and oil production.

Believe it or not, Iran actually rations gasoline and imports almost forty percent of what it consumes domestically. With its refineries out of production and its storage tanks destroyed, Iran’s cars, trucks, buses, planes, tanks, and other military and domestic vehicles would be running on empty in a matter of weeks or maybe even days. The Russians might supply them with some gasoline, but just getting it to Iran in the quantities necessary with be far too expensive and time consuming to do the mullahs any real good, and would eat up Iran's foreign exchange reserves in double quick time. Without sufficient fuel, Iran's army would pretty much be at a standstill, and the only major way Iran could retaliate is through proxies like the Shiite Militias against out troops in Iraq. And facing US firepower without fresh supplies from Iran, the orphaned militias would be at a distinct disadvantage, especially if we coordinated a military assault against them on the ground in Iraq with our strike against Iran.

With Iran's navy and army neutralized, the next step could be to use a force of Marines and special-operations forces from one of our amphibious attack ships - say, the USS Boxer which is already in the area - to seize key Iranian oil facilities in the Gulf. That includes roughly 100 offshore wells and platforms built on Iran’s continental shelf. We could also seize or incapacitate the North and South Pars offshore fields, as well as Kargh Island, whose terminal facilities pump the oil from Iran’s best oil fields like Ahwaz, Marun, and Gachsaran. Controlling Kharg Island would make them almost useless. Instead of the Mullahs controlling the Persian Gulf, we would be in a position to choke off the major part of their oil exports almost at will.

Seem too simple and far fetched? It isn't. As a matter of fact, as M reminded me, the US actually did something like this once before, during the Iran-Iraq War in the mid to late 1980's.

During that war, Iran began attacking tankers and we sent the US navy in to protect the oil flow. When the Iranians got aggressive and nasty, our navy sank one Iranian frigate, severely damaged another and sank several Iranian patrol boats. Teams of Navy SEALS also temporarily seized Iranian oil platforms in the Gulf.

As was pointed out to me, this would be much more humiliating for the mullahs than my original suggestion, which was to target the oil fields and destroy them. Having something and not being able to use it is much worse than having it utterly destroyed...and the oil fields would then be usable for the benefit of the Iranian people after the mullahs are overthrown.

No plan is perfect, and there are always risks, but Iran's strategic threat is something that needs to be dealt with decisively, whether we like it or not. We are simply paying the bill for almost thirty years of wrongheaded policy, starting with the Carter Administration. The way things stand now, the strategic benefits to this approach far outweigh the risks any way you look at it.

One of those major risks, of course,would be Iran's activating of its Hezbollah cells here in America. The FBI and Homeland Security would have to minimize this risk by being on the ball and performing the same way the FBI and Secret Service performed during WWII: by arresting, interning or deporting anyone who looks, talks or smells like a possible security risk.

Other than terrorism, there's not much Iran could do to retaliate. Iran's navy is antiquated and easily dealt with and the same is true of the Iranian army and the Revolutionary Guards - who would be stranded for lack of transport.And since this would be primarily a naval and air campaign, rather than a land war, there would be no need to reduce our troop presence in Iraq or engage Iran's army directly, for the most part. Estimates of the forces needed to pull this off vary depending on who's doing the talking, utilizing one or two carrier strike groups, one to three Marine brigades and possibly an airborne brigade.

Even the specter of oil price spikes in the event of a military action against Iran might be overstated. Right now, the mullahs crank out about 2.5 million barrels of oil a day...and dropping, by about 12% each year. But according to Merrill Lynch's analysis of the oil industry, new production is estimated to boost worldwide production by million barrels per year. And Iran itself couldn't afford to hold out for long. Pumping crude oil is its only industry, about 85 percent of its exports and providing 65 percent Iran's total budget. All that's left are pistachio nuts and a few carpets. With Iran's oil production cut off and the country's ports blockaded, Iran's economy would quickly go bankrupt, with no money to spare for Hezbollah, the Iraqi militias, Hamas, further nuke programs or the global jihad.

The West could simply sit and watch the regime implode.

There are some hopeful signs that the Bush Administration may be leaning in this direction, with the appointment of Admiral William Fallon as supreme commander of CENTCOM in Iraq and the deployment of carrier strike groups and amphibious attack ships in the Persian Gulf.

Political fallout? Yes indeed. President Bush has done very little to get the American public or congress to trust him in the least, and with a Democratic majority in the House and Senate, the outcry would be tremendous. Europe and especially the Russians would undoubtedly scream bloody murder. But, like the deployment of Pershing missiles in Europe during the Cold War and the Israeli raid on Osirak, sometimes the strategic benefits are worth the flak..much of which would hide a great deal of private relief.

Most importantly, the American people would overwhelmingly support our taking the fight to the enemy in this decisive fashion for a change.

If we plan on victory in this war, neutralizing Iran is a major, if not decisive and imperative step along the way.

Carthago delenda est.

Many thanks to The Old General, M, Ze'ev, and Mad Max for their kind assistance.