Monday, November 07, 2016
Forum: Who Will Win The Election?
Every week on Monday, the WoW! community and our invited guests weigh in at the Watcher's Forum, short takes on a major issue of the day, the culture, or daily living. This week's question: Who Will Win The Election?
Don Surber: Trump. Big (2-5 points).
As for the Senate, Nixon carried 49 states in 1972. Republicans lost two seats. Reagan took 49 states in 1984. Republicans lost two seats. However, Republicans gained 12 seats in Reagan's 1980 win. Looks like a 50-50 Senate with Pence making it a Republican Senate.
I see Republicans swapping Illinois for Nevada and maintaining their 54-46 advantage if Trump wins Bigly (6 to 9 points). Landslide (10 or more points) and they pick up Colorado. Bigly is a word by the way.
Bookworm Room : Wow! My answer is the same as it was for our last forum: I'm inclined to agree with Don Surber. Two weeks ago, I would have predicted a close race, with votes from dead people, illegal immigrants, and felons pushing Hillary over the finish line. Now, though, I think Hillary is falling with the speed of a penny dropped from the top of the Empire State Building. Her plummet is so extreme I doubt that even a Zombie Apocalypse, with the dead rushing the polls, can change things. Once the momentum changes at this stage in the game, and one candidate suddenly reeks of fear, incompetence, and decades of festering corruption, while the other looks politically stable even if personally questionable, the race is over.
Having said that, I've been wrong about election outcomes since 1996. I wouldn't ever trust my own predictions. But I still hope I'm right this time, if for no other reason than the witness the mass exodus of Hollywood B-class celebrities making good on their promises to head to Canada. (And Canada? Really? Why are none of them heading for Mexico? Raaacist!)
Puma By Design: Allow me (as usual) to go at it from another angle. Up until two weeks, my neighbors, peers and family (they still have learned) have been shouting Hillary, Hillary, Hillary.
Suddenly, many are not so openly fond of her and just as many will no longer engage me. Of course, the newspapers and local news channels while toning it down a bit are in the usual spin mode.
My son and his friends who insist that they will not vote for Donald Trump are no longer calling him a racist but still hate him. As for Hillary, they are seething, I have heard repeatedly, that they are now not voting for her after what she did to the Black people in Africa, how she treated Haiti and what she said about Black people meaning, of course, Wikileaks. (I know, I know, Podesta emails, Clinton campaign members but I cannot bear to enlighten them since they are not interested anyway.)
Others simply will not mention her name. My son's mother-in-law, a die-hard Hillary supporter is so confused is now always on the run when I call or see her but she has been spending hours on end pouring through Podesta emails on Wikileaks with CNN running in the background.
So far, the only people of whom I am aware voting are older than 50. I do know of a few young women voting but they’re politically brain dead and hypocrites in that they excuse Bill Clinton for rape and refusing to acknowledge his alleged Black son while attacking Trump for salacious unproven attacks and demanding that Black fathers step up.
All of women are holdovers of the long dead feminist movement.
Aside from them everyone else will never vote again in their lives thank to Barack Obama.
All of the above covers folks I know in New York State, the east end of Virginia, North and South Carolina and Florida and their friends. All are Black Americans and "legal" immigrants.
Finally, the cesspool of Communists here is New York City with either vote for Hillary Clinton or Jill Stein. Non-crony capitalists, Donald Trump but their friends will never know.
The bottom line is that only 23% of New York City voted in the 2014 election, I do not expect that to change.
JoshuaPundit: This is an election like no other, because it is to all intents and purposes a rebellion against a self-appointed elite. Terms like 'liberal' and 'conservative' lost all meaning a long time ago, and to be sure we see self labeled 'conservatives' essentially lined up for the status quo and Mrs. Clinton, and a number of sane Democrats lined up behind Trump. We are divided - deliberately so - like no time in our history since the Civil War. In someways, the 1860 election was a last chance to try and use the democratic process to preserve the union in some fashion. From my viewpoint as a lover of history, I find what might come after the election to be more interesting than the beast itself! But of course, it's more than that,isn't it?
In many ways I see this as a battle for America's soul. I see it as a spiritual test of whom we are and what we would become as apposed to what we have become, if you get my drift. Because what we have become has come a long way from the nation that chose 'In G-d We Trust' as its motto.
G-d would have spared Sodom and Gomorrah for ten righteous men. I think America has a lot more of those, and we're about to find out how many. Will G-d punish us with evil, corrupt leadership or will he exercise His divine compassion and give America a chance at redemption?
According to the Torah, the Hebrews, having been exposed to the Egyptians were at a very low spiritual level themselves when they were redeemed...in fact, had that redemption been delayed much longer, it would not have been possible. As it was, only 20% of the Hebrews went with Moses to freedom even though they had seen G-d's miracles before their own eyes. The others stayed behind and disappeared from history as slaves.
We can only hope that our nation's spiritual level has not sunk to the point where it cannot be redeemed. I don't think it has. We'll see.
That's the thing, y'know about our divinely given free will. G-d already knows what will happen but will always give us the opportunity to endorse His divine plan and earn His compassion, and perhaps to even change His decree.
Oh, but you want predictions, not this stuff. OK then. Let's start with the easy stuff. I think the Republicans keep the house, although there may be a few new faces. Rat Ryan, for instance, may not be going back to DC, at least not as a congressman. I see the senate ending up with the GOP holding its majority. At worst it will be 51-49, and that's assuming Rubio, Pat Toomey, and Ron Johnson all lose their seats in what would be a large Hillary victory. I think the actual number will be 53-47 with Toomey and Mark Kirk losing their seats and Joe Heck picking up Reid's seat.
The presidential race?I don't think Comey's last minute flip flop changed much. People have already made up their minds for the most part about whether Mrs. Clinton is a felon or not. I mean, this was someone who had her maid, who had no security clearance printing out classified and Top Secret documents for her!
Only a fool would actually try and call this one, especially given the amount of voter fraud the Dems will throw up. And I'd advise people to read my take on what to watch for and what to ignore on the big day. But here's how I see it.
If Trump can win the usual red states plus Iowa, North Carolina, Florida,New Hampshire, Maine's 2nd congressional district and Ohio, all of which he leads in right now , he's at 270 while still losing Pennsylvania and Colorado (both true tossups) as well as Virginia, Wisconsin and Michigan.If fhe loses Florida, he would need to take Pennsylvania and Colorado to win.
For Hillary to win, she'd have to take Florida, Colorado and Pennsylvania.
The Glittering Eye : Hillary Clinton will win with 272 electoral votes to Donald Trump's 266. She may lose the popular vote.
In the Senate, the Democrats will pick up seats in Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin for a total of 51 seats, the narrowest of majorities.
They pick up a few seats in the House but the Republicans will hold on to their majority there.
What I wish would happen is that somebody other than Clinton and Trump would carry enough states to throw the election into the House where either Gary Johnson or, weirdly, Mitt Romney is elected (look it up--that's the longshot McMullin scenario). But I have no illusions that will actually happen.
I'm starting to worry about armed insurrection.
Virginia Right! : Hillary's poll numbers are falling faster than Bill's trousers in an Arkansas trailer court.
Stately McDaniel Manor:Predictions, eh? Very well. New Coke will not be making a comeback. Mother Theresa’s condition is not expected to change. Teddy Kennedy is still a traitor and 500 times the aggressive, drunken, obnoxious woman abuser Donald Trump could possibly imagine in his wildest dreams. The market for pantygloves remains unexplored for some bold, young entrepreneur, and one of these days, progressives are going to push Americans too far and discover they don’t have the skill or courage to back their rhetoric.
Now, as to the election: on one hand, we see the Dems panicking, with Hillary spending time and money in states they thought she had all sewn up long ago. Obviously, their internal polling is telling them some distressing things. However, some media organs have gone mostly silent, or are beginning to speak of things looking up for Trump, which might mean he’s doing far better than they’re reporting.
It’s a mess. I’ve no doubt Democrats will be cheating all over the country in every way they can. After all, George Bush won the election by a bit over 500 votes in a single state. Each and every vote counts. If every Republican, independent, and crossover Democrat ignores the media and votes, Trump will be the winner, by around 2% of the vote. If not, America is going to experience a very rapid and bumpy decline with Hillary Clinton cackling all the way to the bottom.
The Senate will remain, narrowly, Republican, and the House will remain Republican as well.
Fausta's Blog :I'm so tired of politics I proclaimed this weekend Dmitri Hvorostrosky YouTube weekend.
Laura Rambeau Lee, Right Reason : If there is justice in the universe Donald Trump would win in a landslide. How anyone as obviously corrupt and scandal plagued as Hillary Clinton could have received the Democrat party’s nomination proves how invested they are in continuing the Clinton and Obama legacy. She has been planning to be president for most if not all of her adult life. They are all part of the global communist agenda.
The polls suggest Hillary is leading or the race is too close to call. However, the enthusiasm of their crowds seems to tell a different story. Trump attracts thousands of supporters everywhere he goes while Hillary has to coerce people to come to her rallies by giving away free tickets and appearing with the likes of Beyonce and Jay-Z and Katy Perry. Her pandering to the youth and black voters is obvious and her self-interest painfully apparent.
We know voter fraud is real and they are targeting specific critical areas to win the election. On one of the Sunday morning talk shows Chris Matthews spoke of the ground game Hillary has in place and how they are paying two hundred dollars to people to go to their neighbor’s homes and take them to the polls to vote for her. This is what they have always done and why people living in the inner cities continue to vote Democrat.
I think the election will be too close to call on Tuesday evening. I do believe Trump will win my state of Florida and Marco Rubio will win his senatorial reelection bid. Whatever the outcome of the presidential election, half of the population will be unhappy. This election has divided us more than any I have experienced; along party, race, class, and ideological lines.
The Republican and Democrat parties only seek to retain or regain power. It is the conservatives within the Republican Party, or the Independents for that matter, who vote for the principles, for the rule of law and who respect our Constitution.
As of this writing we have now heard FBI Director Comey state he stands where he did in July and will not pursue the case against Clinton and her negligent handling of top secret and classified emails or her use of a private email server. Our justice system is playing political games with this election and has caused even more division and uncertainty. When we cannot be assured the rule of law will be applied in the same manner to each and every individual we no longer have a lawful society. If Hillary Clinton becomes president this is what we have to look forward to in America; more uncertainty, division, and lawlessness. I believe I, like most Americans, have been subjected to the scandals and corruption of the Clintons for too many decades. They are like dysfunctional family members exposing us to the drama of their personal lives. Haven’t we all had enough of this Clinton fatigue?
Donald Trump promises to restore the rule of law to America and to consider we the people first when making decisions that affect our jobs and our lives. We know from Biblical and historical accounts that God has worked through men more fallible and yes, vulgar and crude, than Donald Trump. I am praying for a Trump victory. Because in the end it’s not about the man, it’s about our country.
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