With just under a week to go until the election, I think it's a good time to assess where we are and what to expect.
Caveat: This analysis does not figure in possible unexpected 'black swan' events! As we've seen, literally anything can happen!
As I and others predicted, as we get closer to election day the public polling were going to tighten up considerably. This is no accident. The stuff showing Hillary Clinton 12 points plus ahead was always bogus and a political tactic to try and dampen enthusiasm and turnout for Trump. Having seen the rabid crowds Trump was drawing at his rallies and even more important, hearing what people were actually saying on the street it was obvious that tried and true tactic wasn't working this time out.
At this point the media commissioned public polls are merely trying to retain a scrap of credibility for next time by reflecting far more accurate numbers. It's interesting that polls like the L.A Times/USC and Investor's Business Daily that always showed Clinton and Trump fairly close together and even showed Trump ahead at times. They haven't changed anything like the degree of most of the others to show this 'tightening' effect.I'll mention some polling in this analysis just for giggles. but here's an excellent rule to follow this week:
Bottom line, ignore the polls, and that especially applies to exit polls and calls by the networks on Election Day.
Rest assured they will be skewed, both deliberately and simply because a lot of people will have very good reasons to keep their choice private given the bullying Hillary's supporters exhibit at every opportunity. Even putting a Trump sticker on your car is asking it to be vandalized and maybe worse. It's how the Left operates.
Believe nothing in terms of results until it's all over. And to be frank, perhaps not even then...
So. who's going to win?
It's impossible to say with certainty because this is not going to be an honest election. Evidence of blatant voter fraud has already been found in Texas, Indiana, Colorado and Florida, and it will certainly occur in California, Philadelphia and Detroit.
But there are several key items that will decide how the election is going to go:
- Yes, there's going to be voter fraud. But Donald Trump has brought a number of people back into the game who haven't voted for years out of sheer disgust. Added to those numbers, we have over three and a half million self-declared Republicans sat 2012 out because they were not going to vote for yet another GOP product in Mitt Romney. If a substantial number of these two groups are going to show up at the polls, it's likely to out weigh the voter fraud numbers in some states. Three states in particular come to mind; Pennsylvania, Michigan and Colorado.If Trump flips any of them, (and in Colorado and Pennsylvania, things are pretty much all tied up, with Clinton's slight lead in the Keystone State well within the margin of error) it will be a good night for Trump. As with much of life, it depends on who shows up and whether there are enough of these unknown Trump supporters to offset the fraudulent votes. For voter fraud to successfully swing things, it has to be close so we'll see.
- What happens with Black America and how they vote. Donald Trump has done something the GOP should have done years ago, actually going to the black community and directly addressing their problems, hopes and aspirations. Romney and McCain, unintentionally perhaps, insulted a decent amount of potential supporters by not only failing to do this but ignoring them completely in 2008 and 2012.
The Donald isn't ignoring them, he's actively courting them and talking about real problems and real solutions to people who bear the brunt of having to live with the effects of decisions made by the cabal in DC. How much of an effect this is going to have is impossible to guess, but all indications are that Trump will get more black support than any GOP presidential candidate in years. Yes, the majority of black voters will still vote to stay on the Democrat Plantation. But for the most part they're not all that excited with Hillary, who isn't offering them anything but the dysfunctional status quo. So black turnout for Hillary is probably going to be lower than it was in 2012, while Trump's black supporters are a lot more likely to turn out and vote, just like most Trump supporters. It's impossible to predict accurately but it might be enough to offset some of the voter fraud. I wouldn't be surprised to see Donald Trump getting between 20-30% of the black vote this year. If that number is somewhere between 25-30%, especially in the battleground states, I think we end up calling the Donald Mr. President.
- Another variable is how high the 'shy Trump supporter' numbers really are. As I mentioned, a lot of Trump's supporters are off the grid poll-wise because they aren't 'likely voters.' They haven't seen anyone for awhile they actually wanted to vote for until now. And the numbers of even a lot of the ones on the grid can't be reliably estimated. Nor will they on Election Day in the exit votes. If some bozo with a microphone got in my way and asked me how I voted, my response would be limited to 'get lost' along with a descriptive noun. Ditto when it comes to pollsters calling on the phone. I'm going to tell someone who has my name, phone number and probably my address how I'm voting? That has to be even more true for this election than usual if you're black, Hispanic, female, gay, or live in some terminally Blue State.
- And finally, the #NeverTrumper effect. There's polling evidence that a number of #NeverTrumpers have been having second thoughts as the election gets closer and they actually begin to smell what a Clinton Presidency is likely to be like. Even Rat Ryan finally succumbed and admitted he had voted for Trump as it became obvious that he was in serious danger of losing his seat, and I expect to see some similar conversions-or at least lip service - in the coming days. In more than a few states a defection of some Gary Johnson supporters would put Trump well ahead of Hillary in some surprising places. How many actual votes Trump might get (and Hillary might get from Jill Green)are another variable.
Donald Trump has managed to get this far while fighting off the Democrats, their blatantly partisan media, and the Republican establishment of his own party while being outspent 50-1. If he wins, it will be one of the biggest political upsets in history.
But then Trump is not your typical candidate in any sense, the majority of the electorate is in an angry, ugly mood and insurgency is in the air. And to paraphrase Michael Moore, it would be the biggest 'up yours' to our self-appointed Ruling Class ever, a class the American people increasingly see Hillary as representing. I wouldn't underestimate these sentiments.
We'll know how all this plays out in about a week.