Turkey Invades Syria - To Attack The Kurds, Not ISIS

Turkey's leader Tayyip Erdoğan has devoted some impassioned rhetoric to fighting ISIS, but until now that pretty much summed up Turkey's contribution...which makes sense if you think about it as I pointed out previously.

Actually, Turkey's relationship with the Caliphate has been relatively benign. Among other things, Erdoğan has allowed the purchase of ISIS oil by various Turkish middlemen, helping the terrorist army fund its operations. In some cases, those middle men include members of  Erdoğan's family. And through it all,  our 'NATO ally' Turkey has played a major role in allowing foreign fighters, weapons and oil to flow across the border.

What  Erdoğan has concentrated his military on is not ISIS but the Kurds, a U.S. ally and so far the most effective force on the ground battling ISIS.

On August 24th the Turkish military invaded Northern Syria. They used a contingent of 1,500 Turkish sponsored "Syrian rebels", aka Islamist jihadis from all over the world, accompanied by some Turkish special forces and twenty tanks to capture the city Jarablus at the Turkish-Syrian border. There's no question that this was pre-arranged in advance. ISIS moved all of its fighters and their families out of the city, and not a single shot was fired. After the 'victory' the Turkish flag was raised.

 Erdoğan's announced rationale is to get rid of "any terror activity on our borders."  He's also made it plain that he considers the Kurdish forces 'terrorists' and the equivalent of ISIS, even though the Kurds have been the ones actually fighting ISIS with the most success. He also issued an ultimatum to the Kurds to withdraw all of their forces and civilians below the Euphrates River.

Obviously, if keeping 'terrorists' away from his border was Erdoğan's chief concern, that could be accomplished by better border security on the Turkish side. A look at the map shows his real objective..to carve out a nice slice of Northern Syria and destroy the Kurds:


 

The Kurdish forces (labeled SDF by the U.S.) had previously advanced to the west and liberated the predominantly Kurdish city of Manbij from the Islamic State with the aid of U.S. air cover. And a new SDF Military Council was announced. But the man slated to head that  was assassinated a scant three hours  after the introductory press conference, with a fair amount of evidence pointing towards Turkish involvement in the murder.

Today, the Turkish military attacked Manbij, indiscriminately bombing and shelling civilians.The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said at least 40 civilians were killed in strikes on two areas. That's probably a very low figure. According to al-Arabiyah, SDF spokesman Shervan Darwish said the airstrikes and shelling started overnight and continued Sunday along the front line, killing many civilians in Beir Khoussa and nearby areas. He said the bombing also targeted Amarneh village. He said 50 Turkish tanks were taking part in the offensive.

Keep two things in mind here. First, if Erdoğan's 'Operation Euphrates' is successful, the Kurds are pushed into ISIS held territory without the defensive protective shield of the Euphrates River. And second, remember that these are U.S. backed allies we're talking about that our 'ally' Turkey is attacking in force and attempting to push to an indefensible position.

Wouldn't you expect the Obama Administration to intervene?

Of course they won't. They're simply standing aside and allowing Erdoğan's armies to do whatever they want to the Kurds. In fact, while all this has been going on, Obama's VP Joe Biden was making penitence in Ankara to Erdoğan. As a sign of massive disrespect to America and the Obama regime, Biden was met at the airport by -wait for it- the deputy mayor of Ankara.

This disgusting exhibition isn't just limited to Obama. For 30 years, successive administrations, the Bushes, Clinton and now Obama have betrayed the Kurds, one of our few real allies in the region, usually in favor of Turkey. Obama and his minions seem to be paying no attention to the fact that Turkey is already working on an alliance with Iran and Russia, with Erdoğan establishing a direct line of communication from Ankara to Syria's Bashar Assad and Turkish MiT Secret Service director Hakan Fidan visiting Damascus to discuss 'mutual cooperation.'

President Barack Hussein Obama has proven once again that actually being a U.S. ally is not only worthless but potentially lethal. Unfortunately, the Kurds have found that out again the hard way. But don't believe for a minute this won't have serious repercussions on America in the future.

A Wedding In Turkey Bombed, 50 Dead - Whodunnit?

There was a particularly horrendous event in Gazientep, Turkey last night when a suicide bomb took th elives of 50 people at a wedding party and injured over 100 more. The suicide bomber involved was a young boy aged between 12-14 and the bomb was detonated electronically, probably by a throw away cell phone.

The screen shot above was from a video posted by one of the guests, who happened to have their phone out and pointed in the direction of the explosion at the exact moment of the blast. The video's available on Live Leak, but I see no reason to post it here.

The Turkish government was quick to blame ISIS. According to Turkey's leader Tayyip Erdoğan. "all the evidence points to ISIS."

What that evidence consists of hasn't been shared, nor, if things go as usual in today's Turkey, will it ever be.

But was it ISIS who pulled this off?

Certainly they're more than capable of it. But were they the ones who did this bombing? Let's look at a few interesting facts.






Since the attempted coup in Turkey, Erdoğan has responded brutally, using it as an excuse to remove or imprison as 'traitors' anyone questioning his virtually dictatorial rule. Think of this as Erdoğan's 'Night of the Long Knives.'  Judges, opposition political activists, businessmen and  journalists as well as military and police have been arrested, harshly interrogated and held for weeks without trial. Anyone whom has criticized or questioned the practices of   Erdoğan and his loyal AKP stooges in any degree  is being put out of the way on charges of 'treason.'

A major target has been anyone associated with Pennsylvania-based cleric Fethullah Gulen.  Gulen is a former ally of Erdoğan and the AKP who broke with him over corruption charges and Erdoğan's increasingly undemocratic practices. Erdoğan has been quite vocal about calling Gulen and his followers 'terrorists' and is blaming them for the attempted coup, something Gulen denies being any part of. Erdoğan has been hammering the Obama Administration to extradite Gulen, saying there is 'no difference between Gulen and ISIS.' 

A visit by Obama's Secretary of State to Turkey reportedly had Erdoğan's demand for Gulen's extradition as a major topic of discussion.

Another interesting thing to look at is how Erdoğan linked Gulen not just to ISIS but to the Kurdish PKK (The Kurdistan Worker's Party ) and PYD (The Democratic Union Party), claiming all of them are allied in a conspiracy to invade Turkey.

It's fairly obvious that, in my opinion, theories that Erdoğan pulled off the coup himself are (so far at least) without substance. But it is obvious that at the very least, he was fully aware of it in advance and allowed it to occur as an excuse to consolidate power and take out his political opposition. After all, Erdoğan himself has referred to the attempted coup as 'a gift from Allah'

So where does all this fit together? It begins to make sense when you find out that this was the wedding of a Kurdish member of The Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), who is in political opposition to Erdoğan and his AKP. According to the UK's Daily Mail, the wedding party was for one of its members, and the groom was injured.

Oddly enough, a lot of the terrorist attacks in Turkey seem to exclusively target Kurds. The deadliest was last October, when suicide bombers killed more than 100 people at a rally of pro-Kurdish and labor activists (read, Erdoğan's political opponents) in Ankara.

Another little detail to include in the mix. Turkey has not been fighting ISIS at all with its own military. They've merely been allowing U.S. airstrikes originating from the base America leases at Incirlik for a hefty baksheesh. Actually, Turkey's relationship with the Caliphate has been relatively benign. Among other things, Erdoğan has allowed the purchase of ISIS oil by various Turkish middlemen, helping the terrorist army fund its operations. And our 'NATO ally' Turkey has played a major role in allowing foreign fighters, weapons and oil to flow across the border, with Erdoğan only making a show of stopping the flow when it suits his interests.

While fighting ISIS may not be on Turkey's agenda, the Turkish military activity in Syria has actually been helping ISIS. It has exclusively focused on targeting the Kurdish militias, so far the most effective force on the ground battling ISIS. Erdoğan has always had designs on grabbing a slice of northern Syria for Turkey since the civil war started, but even more than that he wants to prevent an independent Kurdish enclave in Syria. Or anywhere else, for that matter. So in spite of the narrative about 'ISIS trying to increase ethnic tensions' the compliant Turkish press and Erdoğan's political stooges keep pushing,the truth is that both Turkey and ISIS are not only making a lot of money together, but essentially cooperating in fighting a mutual enemy, the Kurds.

Let's recap, shall we?

We have a horrendous bombing at the wedding celebration of some Erdoğan's political enemies at a time when he's cracking down brutally on any and all opposition. And at a time when he's pressuring the Obama Administration to extradite Fethullah Gulen to Turkey, a political rival he's branded as a terrorist and an ally of ISIS, there a convenient bombing that has the double benefit of terrorizing killing off some of his political opponents and providing added 'evidence' that Gulen is a terrorist that should be extradited back to the tender mercies of Erdoğan and what passes for Turkish justice.

For ISIS, the benefits of taking out some Kurds in Turkish territory pales when you factor in the risk factor of angering Erdoğan into a crackdown and losing a valuable market for their oil..unless they knew Erdoğan was in on it and signed off on the attack.

Again, ISIS is fully capable of this atrocity, but the facts on the ground point to Erdoğan being involved. Either he was fully aware ISIS was going to pull this off or the MİT (Turkish Secret Police) did this one on Erdogan's orders.

Obama's Loose Lips Sink Ships - And Kill Potential Allies

 

My friend Commander Jennifer D. Dyer (ret) has a great piece on the Obama Administration's non-strategy that will definitely reward your attention. Among other things, it details exactly how the president's preferred strategy collapsed between his turgid speech  last Wednesday and today..because ISIS was listening and took action..emphasis mine:

ISIS is busy neutralizing the Syrian factions that might make common cause with the United States.  On Thursday, Breitbart London reported that several dozen leaders of Syrian rebel factions opposed to ISIS, who were gathered at a meeting in northwestern Syria, were killed in a massive explosion on Wednesday.

Huffington Post on Friday evening summarized reports that ISIS has signed a non-aggression deal with a separate group of rebel factions in Syria, nominally so that all of the factions can continue to fight the Assad regime.

According to the Dubai-based Arabic news site Orient News, one of the signatories to the agreement is the Syrian Revolutionary Front (SRF), a group that has received U.S. support and has been touted as a likely partner for a U.S. strategy to oppose ISIS in Syria.

The SRF has been losing ground in recent weeks, suffering a major blow when one of its top commanders was killed at the end of August.  At the same time, the SRF was reported to be fighting alongside al-Qaeda-affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra in southern Syria, including the battle for the crossing point with Israel in the Golan over which the rebel factions claimed control on 27 August.

Now it appears that the non-aggression pact with ISIS was brokered by Jabhat al-Nusra.(ed note: an ISIS ally)  None of this comes as a surprise to those who’ve been following along with Patrick Poole at PJ Media.  On 3 September, Poole outlined the continuing cooperation of factions in the Free Syrian Army with ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra – cooperation that has resulted in a flow of U.S.-supplied weaponry to the latter two armies.  On 9 September, he expounded on a report from the Los Angeles Times that one of the “vetted moderate” groups, Harakat Hazm, is quite open about fighting alongside Jabhat al-Nusra.

The U.S. has already given this group anti-tank missiles.  Appended to Poole’s analysis is the tweeted text of an alliance agreement concluded by “vetted moderate” faction Harakat Hazm and other similar groups with Jabhat al-Nusra.  The text was tweeted on 8 July.

It’s not just credible, it’s highly bloody likely that some of the rebel factions – including U.S. client SRF – have indeed made a pact with ISIS.  The fact that it won’t be worth a bucket of warm spit ought to serve not as an encouragement to U.S. delusions of a meaningful alliance in Syria, but as a warning.[....]

In fact, ISIS hasn’t sat still.  Once Obama made his speech on Wednesday, the option of mounting coordinated attacks on ISIS’s strategic rear in Syria immediately became a major threat posed by the U.S.  If we could do it effectively, we could force ISIS to defend its rear: shift resources away from the campaign in Iraq, and perhaps even rework its overall strategy.

So ISIS promptly took out nearly 50 opposition rebel leaders and signed its non-aggression agreement with America’s potential partners in Syria.

Remember that ISIS doesn’t have to show good faith over time with any of those Syrian factions.  It just has to preempt their cooperation with the United States.  The mechanism for that is straightforward.  We’re an easy read – ponderous making decisions, easily spooked, committed to at least perfunctory public transparency – and our president is a slow learner.

If ISIS can prevent anyone in Syria from cooperating with the U.S., ISIS can concentrate its effort in Iraq, where our forces on the ground will be: small, scattered, un-concentrated, embedded with local groups which may not all be fighting for the same objectives.  Remember this also: Obama is determined not to overlay an obtrusively coherent U.S. framework on this operation.  Kurds fighting in northern Iraq and Sunnis fighting along the Euphrates in Anbar – each with a separate ill-defined connection to the struggling Shia-majority government in Baghdad – will have the lead.

Even in Vietnam and Somalia, I don’t think we’ve ever backed into anything with our hindquarters flapping quite so egregiously in the breeze.  Military success doesn’t just happen.  It’s as much a matter of political will, and a coherent strategy and operational plan, as it is of training, expertise, and weapons superiority at the tactical level.  Assuming we do go ahead with the plan-deficient, few-boots non-war the Obama administration has been proclaiming for the last 72 hours, I am very concerned that American troops could find themselves vulnerable under fire and fighting for their lives within weeks.

I would actually feel better at this point if we weren’t enlarging our footprint in Irbil at all, but instead planned to just keeping flying strike-fighters from Kuwait and Qatar.  There are sound operational reasons to be gravely concerned about Obama’s decision to dismiss the advice of his military leaders and go with a toxic brew of half-measure objectives and exposed deployment situations.

The rapid, cynical, homicidal initiative shown by ISIS in seeking to neutralize Obama’s Syria option is a pretty good indicator of what we’ll be up against.  Pundits and officials who are vocally criticizing the president are not just showing partisan sour grapes.  This is real, and it’s bad.

Commander Dyer also  makes the point that the troops we do have in the region are going to be in very small concentrations, particularly in the vulnerable Kurdish capitol of Erbil. We going to be basing both troops and fighter planes there because, as I reported before,  our Turkish  'ally' won't let us use bases in their country to attack ISIS, even ones we pay a handsome fee to lease, most notably Incirlik, a mere 100 miles from the front. So much for all that appeasement .



 
Moreover, as Commander Dyer points out,  putting together an airbase in Erbil, this close to the front with ISIS makes the planes vulnerable to any heat seeking missiles, of which ISIS has plenty.It's one thing once they're up in the air, but very different when it comes to landing and takeoff.

The bottom line, of course, is is that there is no real strategy, except a political one. President Obama isn't trying to destroy ISIS, he merely wants to rescue his poll numbers by launching a few airstrikes and giving the appearance of doing something so he can kick the can down the road for his successor.

 

Of course having opened his mouth in prime time on national television, the president has pretty much destroyed any chance of  real cooperation with any Syrian  opposition. The ones whom ISIS thought might be a problem are dead, and the others are neutralized, especially after they saw what happened to the others.

Read the rest of Commander Dyer's piece here..

The Iraq Shuffle - Showdown In Baghdad

The rumors early this morning about a suspected coup appear to be partly true, as political factions in the Iraqi government engage as Washington attempts to force Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki out of power.

Maliki had launched into an angry tirade yesterday against new Iraqi president Fuad Masum, who had refused to intervene with parliament to give Maliki a third term after he 'won' a dubious election back in April, threatening to 'take him (Masum) to court.He backed it up by placing army and Shi'ite militia units loyal to him in key areas of Baghdad, at one point surrounding the president's residence.

Meanwhile President Masum, a Kurd has declared Haidar al-Abadi, a former Maliki lieutenant the new Prime Minister and the Obama State Department issued formal congratulations. Meanwhile Maliki's Dawa Party announced al=Abadi's appointment illegal and Maliki's son-in-law, Hussein al-Maliki said they would overturn it in court...while Washington sent a stern warning to Maliki to bow out gracefully and not try using force to stay to power.

The White House said Vice President Joe Biden personally relayed President Barack Obama's congratulations to Abadi in a phone call, which is actually a pretty nasty insult although Abadi probably doesn't know that.



"The prime minister-designate expressed his intent to form a broad-based, inclusive government capable of countering the threat of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant," the White House said in a statement, using the former name ISIS for the Islamic State.

 

Even worse in terms for any prospect of success, Reuters reported that John Kerry weighed in:

"There should be no use of force, no introduction of troops or militias in this moment of democracy for Iraq," Kerry said. "The government formation process is critical in terms of sustaining stability and calm in Iraq and our hope is that Mr. Maliki will not stir those waters.

"There will be little international support of any kind whatsoever for anything that deviates from the legitimate constitution process that is in place and being worked on now."

You tell 'em, Mr. Secretary! I'm sure that will cause all of Maliki's Shi'ite troops and militiamen to throw their guns down and flee in terror.

That, you see, is the problem. Once we pulled out of Iraq, al-Maliki promptly put that $25 billion Iraqi Army the American tax payers  provided him with and put it under his control, like any sensible Middle Eastern autocrat would. He  purged of most of the Sunnis and Kurds and any Shi'tes not loyal to him from the army and the security forces, disarmed them when he could and made sure they were excluded from most positions of power.

At  this point, it's al Maliki who has the boots on the ground, and I'm not sure what leverage the Obama team actually has on him. They can withhold spare parts for his military, but that means Islamic State takes over, so that's self defeating..especially since this president does not want to send American troops back to Iraq. It will be interesting to watch how this standoff develops.

Speaking of developments, an excellent one is that the Kurdish Pesh Merga are now receiving weapons and ammo from our CIA. Apparently this was Obama's fall back position. Since that 'inclusive Iraqi government' appears to be a long way off if it's even possible, the Kurds are the next best thing. Or it might simply be that the president doesn't want another overrun consulate and a dead ambassador on his watch. Unlike Maliki's troops who simply dropped their weapons and ran, the Kurds fought hard with inadequate weaponry and low ammo before being forced back by Islamic State. The air strikes and the beginning shipments of arms have re-invigorated them , the Pesh Merga's morale  is superb and they forced Islamic State out of  two towns yesterday.

 

If the Kurds are armed and they can defend their territory from Islamic State,  this could be the start of an independent Kurdistan.

The Kurd's Last Stand - And America's Shame

 

The Kurds are at their last extremity. Having been denied anything in the way of arms or help by the Obama Administration, outgunned by the jihadis of the Islamic State armed with American arms, tanks and artillery they obtained from the fleeing Iraqi army and from the Obama Administration, the Kurdish Pesh Merga have been pushed back to a defensive line at Kalak, about 25 miles northwest of Irbil, Kurdistan's capitol.

A refugee camp at Kalak that was packed with thousands of refugees who’d fled Mosul and the newly conquered Christian towns just two days ago when it fell to the Islamic State was emptied as Kalak became the new front line.

As this was happening, Kurdish officials continued to beg the Obama Administration for direct military support, arms and supplies.

 

Falah Bakir, the foreign minister for the Kurdistan Regional Government, told CNN that the Kurds needed immediate military help. “We are left alone in the front to fight the terrorists of ISIS,” he said, using the old acronym for the Islamic State, which used to call itself the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Shams (Syria).

“I believe the United States has a moral responsibility to support us, because this is a fight against terrorism, and we have proven to be pro-democracy, pro-West and pro-secularism,” Bakir said.

“I now know that the towns of Qaraqosh, Tal Kayf, Bartella and Karamlesh have been emptied of their original population and are now under the control of the militants,” Joseph Thomas, the Chaldean archbishop of Kirkuk and Sulaimaniyah, told the AFP news agency. These were the largest Christian communities in Iraq. They have now been ethnically cleansed, with the inhabitants either driven off, killed or in the case of females, forcibly converted and enslaved.

The Kurds are brave enough, but they have largely antiquated weaponry from the Saddam-era and limited ammunition to defend their homeland against the Islamic State forces armed with advanced American weaponry.The Maliki government and the U.S have consistently refused to give the Kurds any arms or military aid.

“The Americans keep saying they will help us,” Rosg Nuri Shawess, the Kurdish military commander who was overseeing the defensive preparations was quoted as saying. “Well, if they plan to help they had better do it now.”

Last night, President Obama finally addressed this situation, saying "Today, America is coming to help."

And what was that help? Food and water drops to the trapped refugees on Mount Sinjar, and 'targeted airstrikes, if necessary' to 'protect American personnel and facilities.' We have a consulate in Irbil, and a small number of American oil company personnel staying there.

The president then went on to make vague mention of 'urgent assistance to Iraqi government and Kurdish forces' and spent the rest of his time repeating the lie about how he ended the war in Iraq, apologizing to his base and assuring them that he would "not allow the United States to be dragged into fighting another war in Iraq." Because, in the president's words, "there’s no American military solution to the larger crisis in Iraq.The only lasting solution is reconciliation among Iraqi communities and stronger Iraqi security forces.'

In other words, the president is saying that the U.S. is not committed to fighting Islamic State jihadis (what a surprise, coming from him!) but that we're just going to double down on the $25 billion we've already spent and throw good money after bad into the basically worthless Iraqi military. And the Obama team will continue to wait for the Shi'ite Maliki government to get its act together and reject tribalism, hoping for a 'reconciliation' that isn't going to happen.

So the Kurds aren't going to get so much as one bullet from this president or from Maliki. That in itself should tell you that President Obama's blather about 'reconciliation' is sheer horse manure designed to sound good and reassure his base that America's retreat will continue.

And the airstrikes? I suspected when the president mentioned them that they would be mostly cosmetic, and I wasn't mistaken.

A couple of targets were bombed last night around Makhmour, a town near Irbil. When asked about it, the Pentagon denied U.S. planes were involved, and Kurdish sources confirmed later that the strikes were made by Iraqi and Turkish planes.

According to one of my sources, the strikes last night were pretty much ineffectual and did little damage to the Islamic State's forces. This isn't surprising tome at all since it would suit the Maliki government and Erdoğan's Islamist Turkey just fine to see the Kurds overrun and weakened severely. And neither government has any particular interest in the safety of American personnel or facilities. The 'strikes' amounted to dropping a few bombs haphazardly and flying off.

 

The president had hoped he wouldn;t be forced into a decision, what withhis vacation at Martha;s Vineyard coming up, but the ineffectual nature of the Turkish and Iraqi strikes forced his hand, something that was evident in his televised speech. That's exactly why U.S. planes went into action today. A couple of F-18s off the aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush took out what's described as 'a mobile artillery target' (a tank? a missile launcher?) that Islamic State was using to attack the Kurdish lines “near U.S. personnel,” according to a statement by Admiral John Kirby, the Pentagon press secretary.

“As the president made clear, the United States military will continue to take direct action against ISIL when they threaten our personnel and facilities,” Admiral Kirby said, referring to the Islamic militants by another translation of their Arabic name.

In other words, as the Admiral stated, our commander-in-chief's orders are crystal clear. As long as the handful of Americans in Kurdistan aren't directly targeted, Islamic State can have free reign and kill as many Kurds as they want to. And if things get dicey, hey, we'll just fly our people out and let the Kurds be overrun. Does anyone get the feeling that this decision was pure politics, to avoid another group of dead Americans at a U.S. Embassy on President Obama's watch?

With that in mind, there will likely be a few airstrikes  here and there, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were spaced out and irregular rather than coordinated and  decisive.

Just compare this to President Obama's aerial war against Khaddaffi to save the Islamist jihadis in Benghazi, or his strident lobbying for Hamas in Gaza. There's a pattern here.

Full scale air strikes on the Islamic State's positions would hand them a huge defeat,just as it did to Khaddafi's forces. But that's not what President Barack Hussein Obama wants, obviously.

And the Kurds?

These were the pro-American, pro-western, naturally democratic and prosperous people who should have been the model for former President George W. Bush's successful Muslim democracy.Al-Qaeda in Iraq never got the slightest foothold in Kurdistan and we could rely on the Pesh Merga to hold that territory. Unlike the Shi'ite bloc under Maliki and Moqtada al-Sadr, they literally begged us to put our bases there. Former Kurdish leader Mustafa Barzani once even suggested that America should make Kurdistan the 51st state because "we would defend you and provide you with oil."

Kurdistan could have been our loyal ally, a firm friend, a secure base in the region, helping us to protect the Persian Gulf and offset Iran. Instead we betrayed them to please the likes of Islamist fascist Tayipp Erdoğan and Iran's own man in Iraq, Nouri al-Maliki.

And now, at this last extremity, the final, foul betrayal by President Barack Hussein Obama.I have never been more ashamed.

This entire disaster is the fault of President Obama and his team. It was only a short while  ago that Secretary Kerry was asking congress for half a billion of your tax dollars to arm and train 'the Syrian Rebels', which is exactly how ISIS got so strong in the first place..the covert arms and training  this president handed them via Qatar and Turkey without bothering to inform congress. That, plus the gently used American arms and equipment they inherited from the Iraqi army who dropped them and left them behind, the better to run away a little faster.

The Kurds are not stupid, and they have survived catastrophe before. Their first instinct will probably be to bow down and try to come to terms with Iran. As a matter of fact, there are indications this may have already begun. If this is correct, it marks a major change for the Kurds. After all, if the West and particularly America is retreating, why not try to come to terms with the Strong Horse who's staying in order to try to survive?

There will be an independent Kurdistan some day, but they may have very different feelings about partnering up with America.



UPDATE, 8/11/14: Things have changed since I wrote this. I'm pleased to announce that finally, the Kurds are reportedly getting arms and ammo directly from our CIA. This about face has a lot to do with the Obama Administration's deteriorating relationship with Iraqi PM Maliki on which more shortly.

But at any event, the Kurds are finally getting the arms they need. Thank G-d.

When Will Barack Obama Say Something About The Genocide Of Christians?

 


The lives of Christians in the Middle East are becoming a horror story, at least everywhere but in Israel.

In Syria, the Christians have been almost entirely driven out. Murders, rapes, kidnappings and forced conversions abound. Some have fled to Jordan, others to Lebanon where they have taken refuge with what's left of the local Maronite population.

 

“We are facing real genocide, but all the world has been silent, especially what we call the ‘First World,’” said Syriac Catholic Bishop Barnaba Yousif Habash, based in New Jersey, who has written President Barack Obama and visited both the State Department and Capitol Hill, pleading for U.S. action.

Now, Bishop Habash said during an Aug. 5 interview with the Register, “I don’t trust anyone in the American administration. I don’t have any expectations that they will help.”

Syria's Christians have been mainly targeted by Islamic State (formerly known as ISIS) as well as the other Sunni factions. The Christians are being murdered using arms from Libya or from Qatar via Turkey that Islamic State and the other rebels got courtesy of the Obama Administration. President Obama has been supplying arms and training to ISIS and the al-Qaeda affiliates covertly for quite some time now, while lying about it numerous times publicly and without bothering to clear it with congress

In Iraq, the news is even worse.Over 1500 civilians were slaughtered yesterday by Islamic State. Qaraqosh, the largest Christian town in northern Iraq’s Nineveh province was attacked by Islamic State, and all of its 60,000 residents who could manage to get away fled to Erbil in Kurdistan.

 

The Kurdish Persh Merga had managed to hold out against IS so far and literally begged the Obama Administration for arms to defend themselves. The response was that Washington was 'considering it' but they got no arms or aid because of President Obama's relationship with Turkey's Erdoğan and because the Obama Administration was concerned about upsetting the Maliki government in Iraq.

To add insult to injury, a $100 million cargo of Kurdish oil in a tanker off the Texas coast that would have provided the money to the Kurds to buy arms was ordered seized by U.S authorities which honored a demand from the Baghdad government who claimed the oil belonged to them. The Obama Administration supported this on the grounds that helping the Kurds might result in a break up of Iraq.

According to one of my sources Israel, who has a long standing relationship with the Kurds and supports an independent Kurdistan would be willing to help, but have no way to get any arms to the landlocked country. They helped arm and train the Persh Merga during the No Fly Zone era, but that was when Turkey had a very different relationship with Israel and could be used as a transit point. That's no longer possible.

 

The latest I hear is that Islamic State managed to push the Persh Merga back with the aid of all those gently used U.S. weapons the Iraqi Army dropped when it ran away and are advancing on Erbil,the capitol.Islamic State considers the Kurds 'apostates' because of their moderate Sunni beliefs but more importantly, this gives IS easy access between Iraq's second city of Mosul, which they overran on June 10, and the Syrian border. Even more importantly, IS gained control of Mosul Dam, Iraq's largest and the Ain Zalah oil field.Control of the dam would allow Islamic State to flood major cities or cut off significant water supplies and electricity.

Even worse is what is happening to the Yazidis, an ancient people whose religion mixes elements of Zoroastrianism, Christianity and Islam. IS considers them devil worshipers and infidels. The largest community of them lived in Ninevah and when that was overrun by IS about 200,000 Yazidis and some Christians fled for Erbil, but about 40,000 people are now trapped on Mount Sinjar and surrounded by th Islamic State.The Washington Post today is quoting a UNICEF spokesperson as saying “There are children dying on the mountain, on the roads. There is no water, there is no vegetation, they are completely cut off and surrounded by Islamic State. It’s a disaster, a total disaster.”

 

The ones who were captured by Islamic State in Sinjar, Tal Affar and Zummar are even worse off. Here is a description from a report by Christiana Patto of the Assyrian Aid Society of Iraq:

Yesterday 45 children died of thirst. Some families throw their children from the top of Sinjar mountain in order not to see them die from hunger or thirst, or not to be taken by the terrorists. 1500 men were killed in front of their wives and families, 50 old men died also from thirst and illness. More than 70 girl and women including Christians were taken, raped and being captured and sold. More than 100 families are captured in Tel afar airport. There is about 50 Christian families in Sinjar. The terrorists were able to control the Syriac church there and cover the Cross with their black banner. Till now we do not know anything about those Christian families.

Others are apparently being help as prisoners and human shields by IS in Tel Afar.

And President Obama? Silence, although our UN Ambassador did make a statement:

I condemn in the strongest possible terms the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant’s (ISIL) recent attacks on Sinjar and Tal Afar in Ninewa province that have reportedly led to the displacement of tens of thousands of people, many from vulnerable minority communities, deepening Iraq’s already acute humanitarian crisis. ISIL’s reported abuse, kidnapping, torture and executions of Iraq’s religious and ethnic minorities and its systematic destruction of religious and cultural sites are appalling.

The United States supports the Iraqi Security Forces and Peshmerga Forces working to defend these areas against ISIL. We urge all parties to the conflict to allow safe access to the United Nations and its partners so they can deliver lifesaving humanitarian assistance, including to those Iraqi families reportedly encircled by ISIL on Mount Sinjar. The United States is committed to helping the people of Iraq as they confront the security and humanitarian challenges in their fight against ISIL. Iraq’s leaders must move swiftly to form a new, fully inclusive government that takes into account the rights, aspirations and legitimate concerns of all of Iraq’s communities. All Iraqis must come together to ensure that Iraq gets back on the path to a peaceful future and to prevent ISIL from obliterating Iraq’s vibrant diversity.

Just compare this language with some of the rhetoric the president and the ObamaState department have used to describe Israel defending itsaelf.

The Iraqi Army that cost $25 billion of your tax dollars to create is doing nothing, people are fleeing Erbil ahead of the Islamic State's US equipped armies and the Obama regime is still backing the corrupt and inept Maliki government! No arms for the Kurds and no US military support to stop the jihad of Islamic State. The answer is to wait for Maliki to form that magical 'new and inclusive government.'

 Maliki whose been essentially a 'caretaker'  since a fraudulent and inconclusive election in April has continued to defy any notion of doing anything like that and the Obama regime continues to support him for some reason, while Islamic State just gets stronger. So, stalemate.

Just compare this with the Obama team's quick action,pledges of vast amounts of money and support and florid language and outrageous demands on behalf of Hamas. Or the president's unilateral war on behalf of jihadis in Benghazi, Libya.

None of this, by the way came out of nowhere. President Obama and his team were fully aware of what was likely to happen. They just had other concerns,like partisan politics, fundraising and flooding America with illegal aliens:

Three weeks ago, a group of leaders from the opposition Free Syrian Army warned U.S. officials that a strategic city along the Iraqi border was about to fall to ISIS. It was the latest in a long series of increasingly anxious cries for help. The rebels never heard back from the Americans.

Five days ago, the predictions came true. Free Syrian Army units in the city of Der al Zour handed over their territory to the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham, following weeks of desperate requests for help to international officials, including a direct appeal in a private meeting with U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power.

“[The U.S. officials] showed an understanding of the situation but there was no movement at all,” the commander of the FSA battalion near Der al Zour told The Daily Beast in an interview. “There’s no clear American position in that part of Syria. We told the Americans we are going to fight ISIS and ISIS is close to us, but they did nothing.” [...]

For several weeks prior, FSA leaders had tried to sound the alarm. If Der al Zour fell to ISIS, the extremist group would have control of the transportation routes from their stronghold in Raqqa, Syria to their new territories in northern Iraq. The area is also rich in oil and gas resources and was the last FSA stronghold along the rapidly disappearing Iraq-Syria border.

About six weeks ago, a group of representatives of the FSA and the Syrian Opposition Coalition went to Jordan, and met with the international committee coordinating aid to the FSA based there. They presented a detailed urgent request for money, food, and weapons to be sent to the FSA in and around Der al Zour. Three weeks ago, just days after Mosul fell to ISIS, a group of FSA and SOC officials met with Power in Turkey and briefed her about the impending disaster on the Syrian side of the border. But after the meeting: nothing.

Again, the FSA are not exactly free of Islamists themselves, but the point is that the president and his team knew all about what was going on, and did nothing about it. They still haven't.

President Obama makes a very big deal about being a Christian. So do his followers. But whether it's Pakistan, Nigeria, Iraq, Sudan, Egypt, Syria or Darfur, President Obama has done nothing concrete to stop the jihad against Christians by Muslims.

In fact, if you actually look at his foreign policy, he appears to be aiding and abetting it.

The hard question, the one no one seems to want to ask is why.

US Secretly Flying Drones In Iraq

 

According to the Wall Street Journal, The U.S. has benn flying drones in small numbers over the areas of Iraq now occupied by ISIS. The drones are unarmed and for surveillance only..at least so far.

Someone described as a senior U.S. official was quoted as saying that the intelligence collected under the small program was shared with Iraqi forces, but added: "It's not like it did any good."

There's an understatement for you.

But with all that intelligence, the offensive by ISIS reportedly, 'caught the U.S. by surprise.'

Following the takeover of the two Iraqi cities, administration officials have asked the U.S. military and intelligence agencies to draw up options that include limited U.S. military action in Iraq, officials said.

One of the options being drawn up for the White House would expand the drone flights over Iraq, a step that could aid Iraqi forces or facilitate possible U.S. airstrikes.

"They're looking at everything and anything and have been told explicitly by the White House to think outside the box of what is possible," a senior U.S. official said.

In recent weeks, the U.S. has also stepped up planning for the possible evacuation of the American embassy in Baghdad, a U.S. official said. U.S. military officials say they don't believe an evacuation will be necessary and doubt Baghdad will fall to militant forces, but said expanded planning is prudent.

They were 'caught by surprise' by ISIS but now are saying Baghdad won't fall? Expanded planning is definitely prudent!

 

What will be interesting is the interaction between U.S. forces and the Iranians, whom already have units of Iran's Revolutionary Guard on the ground. And then there's the Iranian backed Shi'ite militias like Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. The Iranians, as I mentioned before are not at all pleased at their Shi'ite colony changing management,

This seems more and more like deja vu, with American troops being caught in between two sides of a religious civil war.

Based on the 'rewards' we got from intervening last time, I think we might be better off staying out of it, to say the least. Let the two sides work it out. The only people I favor arming in Iraq are the Kurds..if they're willing to be our allies after the sordid betrayals of two consecutive American administrations.

 

The Chess Pieces Move In Iraq As ISIS Takes Mosul And Tikrit In Major Offensive

Iraq is falling apart. And al-Qaeda is on the move.

Following a lightning strike that captured Mosul, Iraq's second largest city, the forces of The Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham (ISIS) have continued in an unchecked advance to the south. Aside from Mosul, ISIS has taken the entire province of Nineva along with other areas of Salahaddin and Kirkuk provinces yesterday. And in a major coup, ISIS has now captured the Salahaddin cities of Bayji, the site of Iraq's largest oil refinery, and the city of Tikrit, the provincial capital:




The Iraqi army we built up at such a huge cost to the American tax payer is retreating headlong towards Baghdad. Actually, it's less of a retreat and more of a rout.

Mosul, a city of two million people was a particularly juicy plum for the jihadis. As the Iraqi forces were routed, ISIS seized the provincial government headquarters, the airport, TV and radio stations, police stations and military installations where U.S.-supplied weapons and aircraft were based. ISIS doesn't have any pilots on hand, at least at the moment. But they now have an air force.

They also now have quite a bit of money. ISIS reportedly helped themselves to 500 billion Iraqi dinars - the equivalent of $429m (£256m) - from Mosul's central bank, as well as millions from numerous banks across Mosul according to Nineveh governor Atheel al-Nujaifi.

According to the Wall Street Journal, witnesses said government soldiers ran away in disorder, leaving the streets littered with abandoned army vehicles, weapons and uniforms. The soldiers reportedly knocked on doors and begged for civilian clothes so they could escape without being taken by the ISIS fighters.


ISIS also freed hundreds of prisoners being held in Mosul. More than 2,500 prisoners, many of them members of ISIS or other al-Qaeda factions were freed yesterday when ISIS took control of the city. That should more than replenish any casualties they suffered, and provide manpower either for a move on Baghdad or reinforcements for Syria.

As you can see in the map above two things are apparent. First, ISIS has literally erased the border between Syria and Iraq, both artificial countries anyway. ISIS still holds Fallujah, and their western lines st this point extend to the outskirts of Baghdad. At the same time, ISIS is advancing quickly from the north which will soon give  them a unified front to assault  Baghdad from two directions, perhaps in a matter of days.

 

This was an amazing strategic coup for ISIS. Shi'ite Iraq was cheerfully letting Iran funnel supplies to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, the Syrian Army and Hezbollah in Syria.This will effectively cut off a large part of that flow, and may even be decisive in winning the war for the jihadis there. or at least pushing Assad back to the northeastern coastal redoubt I've spoken about before.

ISIS and the other al-Qaeda and Islamist fighters are being heavily backed by the Saudis, Qatar and the other GCE countries..and, as I pointed out the other day, by President Obama, who has been supplying arms and training to ISIS and the al-Qaeda affiliates  covertly for quite some time now, while lying about it numerous times publicly and without bothering to clear it with congress, of course. As for the Saudis and the other Sunni states, this is there way of attempting to checkmate Shi'ite Iran, since they've realized by  now that President Obama never will.

 Sponsor putting an Islamist, terrorist affiliated government in power  instead of  Basher Assad? That would certainly not be an unusual step for this president if you look at his actions on Libya and Egypt.

At this point, thanks to the assistance they've received, ISIS has a solid area of influence in both Syria and Iraq, and may one day put together the unified Islamist state of their dreams, while the Shi'ites will be forced back into their traditional areas in the south...if they can hold them. Since Iraq's two biggest oilfields are in the south as weel as their Shi'ite's holy city of Karbala, they may very well make a stand there.

There are several wild cards going on that bear mentioning.

First, Iran.  I would not be surprised at all if Iraqi PM Maliki asks for Iranian support to hang on to things, especially if his calls to President Obama to put U.S. boots back on the ground in Iraq again falls on deaf ears. Either way, we could see a widening of the war. If America goes back in . we could see the ludicrous spectacle of U.S. troops fighting ISIS, whom their own commander-in-chef has armed and trained to preserve the Shi'ite dictatorship we put in power after we took out Saddam Hussein. Or we could see what amounts to simply an extension of the Syrian civil war to Iraq,which was largely a tribal conflict itself anyway. 

Of the two scenarios, I would see Iran coming in as the most likely, for domestic American political reasons if nothing else.

Another wild card is the Kurds. In spite of what  the map above says about ISIs and allied tribes being  'anti-Kurd' , I wouldn't be surprised if there was something interesting going on behind the scenes. Iraq's Shi'ite government has not been particularly friendly Kurdistan,especially when it comes to th eoil rich city of Kirkuk, which the Kurds claim as part of their federated area.

In both Syria and Iraq, ISIS and other Sunni jihadis have pretty much steered clear of the Kurdish areas, including Kirkuk. Partly, that's because the Kurds have maintained their own independent fighting force, the Persh Merga who were originally trained by the IDF covertly during the Saddam
' no fly zone' years. They're good fighters, and have close links with the Kurds in Syria, just over the border from Iraqi Kurdistan.

It's not impossible that the Kurds have made an agreement with ISIS, their fellow Sunnis.

The 2nd and 3rd Iraqi Army divisions in Nineveh and the 4th division in Salahadin are where most of the Kurds still in the Iraqi Army serve. To get to Bayji and Tikrit, the 4th division's headquarters, an dadvance as quickly as they did ISIS would have had to run through a lot of Iraqi troops putting up little or no resistance. Did the Kurdish troops, instead of retreating south towards Baghdad decide to go northeast with their arms and equipment instead, back towards Kirkuk and Kurdistan? I've heard several reports of Kurdish troops in Kirkuk, both Iraqi Army and Persh Merga.

The Kurds would also need to strike a deal with ISIS in any case, since while the fields might be in Kurdistan, the pipelines flow though ISIS held territory.

 

Did the Kurds  negotiate a separate peace with ISIS, that in exchange for allowing them to take Kirkuk and form an independent  Kurdistan, the Kurds would dissolve and not fight ISIS, either in Iraq or in Syria? It's possible, and  if that's true, we may be seeing the historic partition of Iraq.

In any event, this is going to be interesting as it plays out. Stay tuned...

What They're Not Telling You About The Earthquakes In Turkey

As you may have heard, Southeastern Turkey was rocked yesterday by massive 7.2-magnitude quake that has killed nearly 300 people. Hundreds of buildings are down and there are still many victims buried beneath the rubble.

Israel's president Shimon Peres called Turkey's President Abdullah Gul to offer his condolances and the help of Israel's expert rescue teams, who are only about 90 minutes away from the quake site by air. Gul refused. Instead, Turkey accepted help from Iran and Azerbaijan and refused all international help except from those two countries.

To find out why, we merely need to look at a map. The epicenter and hardest hit area is near Ercis, in the mountainous area inhabited primarily by guess who - the Kurds!

The same people the Erdogan regime has been steadily oppressing for some time.

And that's exactly the area where the Turks want no one seeing anything but the Iranians, who have their own issues with the Kurds! What a coincidence, eh?

Could it be that Turkey doesn't want any international observers getting a look at what's been going on there, or talking to the local people? Are they afraid of what they might find out? Are they worried about the Kurds gathering international attention and sympathy?

And would Turkey be perfectly fine with a few less Kurds around anyway?

Three guesses.

UPDATE: More on this from my pal Greg over at Rhymes With Right .

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Turkey Used Chemical Weapons On Kurds

Der Spiegel reports that German experts have confirmed that the Turkish military used chemical weapons against Kurds, who may have been PKK insurgents. Given the nature of the fighting, it's almost certain that a number of innocent civilians were killed.

Turkey has almost 12 million Kurds - oh, excuse, me 'mountain Turks' because Turkey does not allow them to be referred to as Kurds- who want increased rights and autonomy. Turkey has used its armed forces to suppress and control the Kurds. They actually crossed the Iraq border to go after insurgents, shamefully, with American acquiescence.

Der Spiegel cites Gisela Penteker, a Turkey expert with International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War as saying that the Turks have been suspected of using chemical weapons on the Kurds for quite some time. "Local people have said that again and again," she explained.

Turkey is a signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention, and the Turks have said repeatedly that they do not possess any chemical weapons.Using them would be a violation of that treaty.

Members of the German Bundestag have called for Turkey to submit to an international investigation, but the Turks have refused to do so.

And in any event, the UN isn't going to investigate a Muslim cou8ntry for human rights violations.

Now, if Israel were the accused party in something like this...well, now that would be a different matter, wouldn't it? And no evidence would even be necessary, just the wild allegations of a country like, well, Turkey.

Further discussion and analysis by my blogpals Benjamin Weinthal in the Jerusalem Post and Carl over at Israel Matsav.

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