Watcher's Council Nominations, 11/12/08

The Watcher's Council is a group of some of the most incisive blogs in the`sphere. Every week, the members nominate two posts each, one of their own and one from outside the group for consideration by the whole Council.

A full list of entries, including some excellent non-Council ones can be found here.

COUNCIL NEWS: This week, the Watcher's Council welcomes two new members, Mere Rhetoric and The Provocateur. Please take a moment to visit their sites.

So, let's see what we have this week:


Joshuapundit - From The Beginning - You could say that my piece this week deals with hope and change - the real stuff, not the amorphous pink clouds peddled to the masses from the teleprompter of our president-elect. We are talking renewal here, a return to what I consider to be the founding principles of this country and a reverence for what the Founding Fathers envisioned for America, the things that have made it such a special place. The way I see it, that has very little to do with the Republican Party or conservatism as such ( although it likely will, ultimately) and everything to returning these principles, which cross party lines…or so they should.

The first of two parts...the second part will go into detail in how I see this getting done.


The Colossus of Rhodey - That ‘ol “kindred spirit” argument - In the last election, Colorado became the only state in the Union to vote down a bill outlawing race based preferences, albeit by a 50-49 margin. Hube analyzes some of the tactics that were used to defeat it, namely the fact that the KKK supported the bill and that fact was emphasized in the high profile ads that were used by bill's opponents.


The Glittering Eye - A Prospective Obama Administration (Updated) - Dave Schuler has an amusing piece this week, in which he tries to read the tea leaves to characterize what the incoming administration will be like by comparing it to classic films. Me, I'm leaning towards GoodFellas...or maybe Rashomon.

Bookworm Room - Reaching new demographics - This week, Ms. Bookworm focuses on the challenge for conservatives to reach out blacks and Hispanic constituencies. Frankly, I think it depends on which conservative principles we're talking about, and which blacks and Hispanics. For example, like their white and Asian counterparts, few blacks and Hispanics who work in government as public employees are going to endorse conservative economic principles, although they might endorse conservative views on foreign policy and social issues, like Propositiuon 8 in California as Ms. Bookworm mentions.


Mere Rhetoric - Noted Democratic Shill Begs Nutroots Not To Viciously Attack Emanuel For Being Too Jewish - In his debut piece for the council, Omri focuses on the spectacle of a Leftist self-hating Jew begging his fellow Leftists not to give vent to their normal anti-Semitic tendencies where Rahm Emanuel is concerned. These are the sort of folks to whom 'neocon' is just code for 'dirty Jew', and they are unfortunately alive, well and an important constituency of the Democratic Party.


Hillbilly White Trash - The Great GOP Civil War - Lemuel writes about what he sees as a struggle for control of the Republican party between those he dubs as conservatives and those he refers to as RINOs and moderates.


Soccer Dad - Overcoming idiocy - Soccer Dad fisks a piece by Slate columnist Timothy Noah that postulates that we still have a serious problem with white racism because the Chosen One didn't get the majority of the white vote. As Soccer Dad muses, I wonder what Noah would classify the monolithic black vote for Obama?

Unfortunately SD, you can't overcome something that's inherent in some people...



Cheat-Seeking Missiles - Valor and Patience - Laer shares a personal reminiscence, in honor of Veteran's Day.


The Razor - Return to First Principles - Scott examines the various parts of what he calls the Republican coalition and what principles they might join together around.


The Provocateur - Fraud, Corruption, and Power: What Our Bailout Tax Dollars Are Really Going To - In his debut Council post Mike Volpe gives us one example of the same point I've made on this site...that the bail out represents an unparalleled looting of the Treasury and a rape of the taxpayers for the benefit of Congress' favorite Wall Street cronies.


Rhymes With Right - Something That Must Be Said - Greg's piece this week deals with the First Amendment and efforts to shut down some aspects of it as so-called 'hate speech' by the Left. As an example, he cites supposed death threats directed at Obama that were shouted out at Palin rallies. Aside from the fact that it never happened ( per the Secret Service personnel who were actually at the rallies) the point he raises - if I follow him correctly - is that no one man's life, regrettably, is worth curtailing our freedom of speech.

I agree with him to a point, but I would also point out that as I wrote in a different context, the SCOTUS has been quite clear that speech deliberately designed to incite violence is NOT covered by the First Amendment, and that threatening the life of the President or any other officer of government has long been a felony ( TITLE 18, PART I, CHAPTER 115, § 2385) even though it's a felony that's rarely prosecuted.

Bush Angry At Obama's Leaks From Yesterday's Meeting...

I simply can't imagine why Bush would be angry at this.

For all my dislike of the things he's done during his tenure in the White House, I've never thought of the President as stupid.

Didn't Bush realize what sort of person he was dealing with? Hasn't he been paying attention?

Hamas Says They Met Obama Advisers In Gaza

Well, that's certainly no surprise to me:

Ahmad Yousuf, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh's political advisor, said that during the recent US presidential race a secret meeting between senior Islamist group figures and advisors to President-elect Barack Obama was held in Gaza.

"We were in contact with a number of Obama's aides through the Internet, and later met with some of them in Gaza, but they advised us not to come out with any statements, as they may have a negative effect on his election campaign and be used by Republican candidate John McCain (to attack Obama)," Yousuf said in an interview with London-based Arabic-language newspaper Al-Hayat, published Tuesday

Yousuf said Hamas's contact with Obama's advisors was ongoing, adding that he was still on good terms with some of the aides he had befriended while residing in the US.

Nice, hmmm?

This confirms something that I reported on during the election that the Obama campaign denied at the time.

No wonder Hamas endorsed Obama and had its minions cold calling the US to drum up support for him during the campaign....

The Afghanistan Blues

Team Obama is already talking about their new approach to Afghanistan.

Obama got a great deal of campaign mileage out of his belief that the US 'took its eye off the ball' by fighting in Iraq instead of the `real war' in Afghanistan, even though bin-Laden himself declared Iraq was al-Qaeda's central front on their war against us. A glance at a map, showing the relative geographic and strategic importance of Iraq as opposed to Afghanistan explains why al-Qaeda was so anxious to fight there and why they were willing to suffer such tremendous losses in manpower and resources to try to keep it.

That war in Iraq is largely won, no thanks to Obama and his party, who did their very best to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory while our troops were in the field. So President Obama will likely get his chance to conduct that 'real war' an dsee what he makes of it.

The new president-elect and his foreign policy team like the idea of what they call a more regional strategy in Afghanistan,including talks with Iran and pushing negotiations between the Afghan government and what Obama's national security advisers call the "reconcilable" elements of the Taliban.

Additionally, the new Commander-in Chief wants a 16 month deadline for the withdrawal of all US forces from Iraq, a transfer of three combat brigades to Afghanistan, and a new focus on our supposed real enemies, bin-Laden and al-Qaeda.

Team Obama is also emphasizing how popular the new president-elect is in Europe, and expects that to translate into increased troops commitments from our balky NATO allies.

This is troubling on several accounts.

First, while al-Qaeda is an important subcontractor in the jihad against the West, they're just that - a subcontractor. And aside from that, they're a widely diffused network of affiliated groups and wanna-be's, many of them in the west. If bin-Laden and Zawahiri died tomorrow, al-Qaeda and its offshoot like Jamayaah Islami and Abu Sayef would keep going without any problem. So would the Muslim Brotherhood and Hezbollah, both of whom have organizations and cells here in America and are much better organized, funded and deadly than what's left of al-Qaeda and its adherents here in America.

The key to winning the War on Jihad lies in confronting - militarily or otherwise - the nation states that fund, support and provide havens for the Islamist terrorists and export jihad to our shores, as I've mentioned many times. No terrorist group in modern times has ever lasted long without that kind of secure base.

And that also brings me to the second problem with Obama's approach. Al-Qaeda and the Taliban have a safe haven in Pakistan, and heavily leaning on the Pakistani government is pretty much a non starter. As a matter of fact, creating a hostile Pakistan is an almost certain way to doom our efforts to fight in Afghanistan, unless the Obama Administration is intending to invade the whole country with those three brigades, as Obama foolishly suggested.

Again, all you have to do is look at a map.

Afghanistan is landlocked, and 75% of the supplies for our troops come through Karachi and overland to Afghanistan through the Torkham border crossing. If that route is blocked off by a hostile Pakistan angered at what they would perceive as attacks on their sovereign territory, the alternative is either a costly and inefficient airlift or shipping the stuff through the Black Sea into Georgia and Azerbaijan (assuming they let us) and then crossing the Caspian Sea and shipping the stuff through Turkmenistan and then over impassable, mountainous country into Afghanistan from the Northwest. I might add that the last time we attacked Waziristan with drones the Pakistanis cut off supplies to our troops for a couple of days.

Back when Musharraf was in power, the Pakistanis leaned a bit more towards looking the other way when we bombed the North West Frontier Provinces. But he's gone now, and the President-elect had a part in his demise. Hearing an American presidential candidate from a major party talking about invading part of Pakistan helped undermine Musharraf, who was seen by the people now in control of the country as a US stooge.

As for Obama charming the Europeans into stepping up their troop commitments, let's just say I have my doubts.

After all, that was supposed to be his job as Chair of the Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on European Affairs, the committee that has the direct responsibility of negotiating to increase the European's lack of combat troop support for NATO's mission in Afghanistan..a subcommittee Obama failed to convene even once.

The problem is that most of the NATO countries involved in Afghanistan are simply refusing to provide combat troops. The Canadians, the Dutch, the Danes, the Brits, our non-NATO allies the Australians and a few others are providing the boots on the ground with us, but most of NATO would like nothing better than to pull out, even if it means turning the country over to the Taliban.

And the British are wavering, as they did in Iraq. While the individual British soldier in the field has fought valiantly, their combat mission is hogtied by the refusal of the Brown government to provide them with the necessary equipment needed to fight this war like sufficient numbers of helicopters, armor and airborne drones. Their top commander has gone public in declaring the war 'lost'., and both the Canadians and the Dutch have already threatened to pull their troops out unless the other NATO nations start doing their fair share.

Now Obama and NATO might very well be planning to pressure the Karzhai government into negotiating some kind of half-assed `settlement' with the Taliban that would last just long enough for us to declare victory and leave. Both the Iranians and our European allies would be just fine with that, the Iranians because it would be one less area in the region with a US presence that Iran could project its power and influence into and the Europeans because it would get them out of a commitment they have little stomach for.

The only people who might be somewhat distressed at this situation would be the Afghan people left to the tender mercies of a bunch of 7th century barbarians..and us ultimately, when Afghanistan again becomes a terrorist training ground and launch point for the jihad against the West. Only this time, perhaps with nuclear weapons courtesy of Pakistan.

There is, of course, the alternative of actually winning in Afghanistan.If you take winning to mean establishing a reasonably stable nation state there,we have a fighting chance of success provided we also deal with the problem of Pakistan. But if we're talking, as Barack Obama and others are of merely "defeating al-Qaeda and capturing bin-Laden" we will be stuck in a never-ending war of attrition.

I hate to say it, but right now it looks like amateur hour at the White House.

I hope I'm wrong.

Veteran's Day...

Remember today that freedom isn't free. And the price - sometimes the ultimate price-is paid by those willing to pick up the gun and defend it.



If you run into a vet today, thank a moment to let them now how much you appreciate what they've given us.

When Justice Just Is Not

There was a minor US Supreme Court footnote today that..well, it moved me. Simply because it's a superb example of what's wrong with our justice system, and indeed a whole sector of our culture.

Sara Weir of Los Angeles had her whole life ahead of her at 19.Then she was raped and stabbed 29 times with a pair of scissors and left to bleed to death.

The perpetrator, Douglas Kelly was convicted of this brutal murder back in 1993. After he was convicted but before he was sentenced, Weir's family were allowed to show a video to the court made by Weir's adoptive mother, filled with images of Weir from infancy through her high school graduation and set to music by Enya:

You can see the Weir video on YouTube here (part 1) and here (part 2).

In a separate case brought before the Court today, Samuel Zamudio was convicted in 1997 of robbing and murdering Elmer and Gladys Benson, an elderly couple. The prosecution played a video made by the Benson's daughter containing 118 photographs of the couple, including the last three showing the couple's graves.

The videos were shown under the law that permits 'victim impact evidence' to be shown to juries by family members to show the effect the loss of their loved ones has had on their lives. Due to a SCOTUS interpretation of the Fourteenth Amendment (Payne v. Tennessee) such videos are admissible but cannot call for vengeance or be 'unduly emotional' and the California State Supreme Court had already ruled that they weren't.

In Kelly's case, the irony is that he shouldn't have been out of jail at all. A day or so before he raped and murdered Sara Weir, he was imprisoned on a domestic violence for a violent attack on an ex-girlfriend. But because the police neglected to check the computer system to find that he was already wanted for rape in Florida, he was allowed to make bail.

Both Kelly and Zamudio are on death row, and had their lawyers appeal to the Supreme court to set aside their death sentences on the grounds the videos unduly influenced their sentencing and they did not receive a fair trial.

The Supreme Court rejected the appeals, but here's the kicker..would you believe that three Justices dissented?

Justices John Paul Stevens, David Souter, and Stephen Breyer all dissented. Stevens said that "Their primary, if not sole, effect was to rouse jurors' sympathy for the victims and increase jurors' antipathy for the capital defendants. The videos added nothing relevant to the jury's deliberations and invited a verdict based on sentiment, rather than reasoned judgment."

Pray tell, Justice Stevens..this piece of walking garbage had already been convicted before the video was shown, so how did it 'invite a verdict based on sentiment rather than reasoned judgment?' And exactly what's wrong with normal human beings having sympathy for a young girl who's life was callously snuffed out at 19, and for the grieving family she left behind? Is it sympathy, or simple human decency and a sense of justice?

These two murders have been sitting on death row enjoying something they denied their victims..the right to life. In Sara Weir's case, her rapist and murderer has been sitting on death row and milking the appeals process for 15 years, almost as long as his victim's life. And if he and Zamudio actually do get the death penalty for casually snuffing out the lives of three human beings who had every right to live in peace, they'll go with a lethal injection designed to minimize any of the kind of pain they doled out to their victims.

Or, like the old civil rights saying went, 'Justice deferred is justice denied' something I'm sure Stevens, Bryer and Souter would agree with unless it concerned a murder victim and her family.

They ought to be ashamed of themselves.

When you have one third of the highest court in the land with such a perverted view of justice, it explains a great deal about why this sort of thing keeps occurring, especially when they have judicial brethren with like-minded views on the lower benches.

They all oppose any notion of capital punishment, but haven't quite got the votes to outlaw it. So instead, they'll attempt to neuter it as a deterrent, creating endless appeals and delays that allow murderers and their lawyers to game the system and drag the process out for years. And in the event an execution is actually performed, they'll make sure that it's a pain free nod off, to make killers like Kelly and Zamudio even less fearful of facing justice.

If we still used the gallows and the electric chair, do you think it might just save a few lives, make a murderer think twice before slaughtering someone? But that kind of simple justice is something these three justices and others like them turned their backs on a long time ago.Because to them, someone like Sara Weir is just an abstract statistic, not a human being.

Which of course is why we need to use tools like these videos..to remind us, so we don't become like them and forget that.

The Awful Truth...

courtesy of Batton Lash..please visit his site at exhibitapress.com.

And a hat tip to Treacher, while I'm at it...

Watcher's Council Results, 11/07/08

The Council has spoken! A complete rundown of the voting tallies is here.


Among the Council members, the winner this week was my piece at Joshuapundit, National Security Rears It’s Ugly Head , a look at what Joe Biden inadvertently let slip about national security issues the new administration is likely to face. As always, thanks gang..it's an honor.

Coming in second was The Colossus of Rhodey with The real worry about an Obama presidency , a dissertation on the dangers of Leftists appointing judges whom share their political values.

Also getting votes was Dave over at The Glittering Eye for Why the Financial Fixes Aren’t Working

Among the non-Council entries, the winner was Andrea Tanteros at the Real Clear Politics/Cross Tabs Blog - Obama Victory the GOP’s Best Hope

In second place was Mere Rhetoric - Israel: 70 Percent Of American Jews Ready To Say ‘We Didn’t Know’ When Obama Detonates US-Israel Alliance (Plus: They Most Definitely Know).

My nominee in this catagory , Daniel Flynn's piece Daniel Flynn/City Journal - The Ghosts In Grant Park came in third, but I include it because I thought it did a fine job of reminding us of a little history that could stand to be remembered, If we ignore the ghosts of the past, they have an uncomfortable tendency to become flesh again.

As usual, congratulations not only to the winners, but to all the participants.

Sarah Barracuda Bites Back

Governor Sarah Palin had a few things to say to the media on her first day back on the job back in Alaska...about leakers, the lack of journalistic standards and what she learned on the campaign trail..things start to heat up at about 1:45.



What I'd like to see from Governor Palin is a couple of years spent appearing on talk radio, FOX and speaking at conservative forums while building her organization and defining herself in her own terms without the heavy hand of McCain campaign 'handlers'. If she does that, she'll have a nice headwind into 2012.

And that's pretty much what Reagan did between 1976 and 1980.

64% Of Republicans Want Palin As The Nominee In 2012

Well, how `bout that..

According to the same Rasmussen poll, only 20% of GOP voters say Palin hurt the ticket. Ninety-one percent (91%) of Republicans have a favorable view of Palin, including 65% who say their view is Very Favorable. Only eight percent (8%) have an unfavorable view of her, including three percent (3%) Very Unfavorable.

This jibes with an earlier survey by Rasmussen showing Republicans were happier with Palin as their vice presidential candidate than with McCain as their presidential nominee!Jindal, Pawlenty and romney all scored in single digits.

Most of Palin's unfavorables come from Democrats (81%) and so-called unaffiliated voters ( 57%).

According to Drudge, Sarah Palin has an exclusive interview in Alaska scheduled with FOX's Greta Van Susteren, which will undoubtedly be a lot more fair an dbalancedthen her outings with the likes of Katie Couric and Charlie Gibson. I have a feeling that if she keeps that sort of thing up, refines her populist, conservative message and continues to grow, she's going to be a force to reckon with in 2012...and the gutless cowards in the McCain campaign that have been sliming her are going to end up political lepers.

You go girl!

So Much For Record Turnout...

According to CNN, turnout for this election was about the same as in 2004, maybe just a 1% difference...

A new report from American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate concludes that voter turnout in Tuesday’s election was the same in percentage terms as it was four years ago — or at most has risen by less than 1 percent.

The report released Thursday estimates that between 126.5 and 128.5 million Americans cast ballots in the presidential election earlier this week. Those figures represent 60.7 percent or, at most, 61.7 percent of those eligible to vote in the country.

“A downturn in the number and percentage of Republican voters going to the polls seemed to be the primary explanation for the lower than predicted turnout,” the report said. Compared to 2004, Republican turnout declined by 1.3 percentage points to 28.7 percent, while Democratic turnout increased by 2.6 points from 28.7 percent in 2004 to 31.3 percent in 2008.

There's no indication in the report on how many of these votes belonged to illegal aliens, felons and corpses.

Overall, about the same number of voters as 2004, I guess..just a lot higher price on a dollar per vote basis!

Rahm Emanuel

Obama's pick of Congressman Rahm Emanuel as his White House Chief of Staff suggests a number of things to me about the direction of the Obama White House on several levels.

Politically, it suggests to me is that Obama might be attempting to nuance himself a bit, something that will not endear him to his far Left supporters. Emanuel is a partisan pit bull, but by Democrat standards he's fairly moderate, an ex-Clintonista connected with the Democratic Leadership council (DLC). There's not much love lost between Emanuel and the nutroots.

Obama's only hope of having a successful presidency is to govern from the center. Is Emanuel a signal he plans to do so? We'll see.

Another political indication given to me by Emanuel's appointment is that the Obama White House is going to resemble the Clinton White House in being in constant campaign mode.Emanuel's chief gifts for the position, aside from his talents as an enforcer is his ability as a political fix-it guy and fundraiser.I have my own opinions on how good that is for the country, but it makes sense from Obama's personal standpoint.

Another thing Obama's pick of Emanuel suggests is that Obama is working towards picking a side in one of the many splits between his supporters, in this case between Israel haters and American Jews.

Rahm Emanuel is an observant Orthodox Jew with a very pro-Israel stance and a Zionist background.Emanuel's father, Benjamin Emanuel is a dual US-Israeli citizen who lives in Israel and is an ex-member of the Irgun, the Zionist group chiefly responsible for kicking the Brits out of what became Israel. According to his father, his son is the namesake of Rahamim, a Lehi combatant who was killed by the Arabs.

Rahm Emanuel himself also had dual US-Israeli citizenship, which he renounced when he was 18, and served with the IDF in the Golan during the Gulf War as a civilian volunteer in Israel.

While Emanuel was a supporter of Oslo during the Clinton years, ( back when people actually thought it would work) he's also been a consistently strong supporter of AIPAC and has an extremely pro-Israel voting record. It's not impossible, but it's highly unlikely that he would be part of an anti-Israel White House,and it may very well be that Obama, noting the support he received from American Jews has decided to reach out to them and adopt a more pro-Israel stance and lean more to that side of his following than was anticipated.

Again, we'll see.

Operation Leper

In the aftermath of the McCain defeat, some of his operatives have apparently decided that a convenient target to pin the blame on is Governor Sarah Palin. So they've been yakking it up with the dinosaur media ( most notably the New York Times, Newsweek and Fox news commentator Carl Cameron. They are spreading stories on background about how difficult Sarah Palin was, how stupid she was, what a 'diva' she was....and naturally, the Left is eating it up.

This sort of obscene collaboration with the Left in an effort to find a convenient scapegoat for the campaign's own failures is despicable, and would not be happening if Palin was part of the Old Boy's network.

AccordinglyRed State has a project entitled 'Operation Leper' designed to target these folks.

RedState is pleased to announce it is engaging in a special project: Operation Leper.

We're tracking down all the people from the McCain campaign now whispering smears against Governor Palin to Carl Cameron and others. Michelle Malkin has the details.

We intend to constantly remind the base about these people, monitor who they are working for, and, when 2012 rolls around, see which candidates hire them. Naturally then, you'll see us go to war against those candidates.

It is our expressed intention to make these few people political lepers.

Their initial list includes Mark McKinnon, Steve Schmidt and Nicolle Wallace, ex of CBS.

Even if Governor Palin were an idiot - and she's not, as anyone who's met her will testify - the same people flapping their lips were the ones who were in charge of vetting her..so what does that say about how smart they were, if what they're saying had any truth to it?

Sarah Palin is the most exciting and natural conservative politician to appear since Ronald Reagan. She was like a jolt of electricity to an otherwise moribund McCain campaign and perhaps the only thing he did right. She inspired the ticket, raised scads of money and brought crowds of people out to the rallies in a way McCain was utterly incapable of without her, one reason they frequently did joint appearances.

Without her, McCain would have been lucky to break 40% of the vote.

Through everything that was thrown at her, she maintained her energy and optimism, no matter what kind of garbage was thrown at her and her family by the media and the elites from both parties.

To smear her anonymously at this point is disgraceful, and it's disappointing that McCain doesn't see fit to put a stop to it.But perhaps it's his way of once again disassociating himself from the GOP's conservative base and becoming a media darling again.

Sarah Palin will no doubt rise above this, just as she's risen above everything else, and I have no doubt we'll see her again in the national arena. That's more than I can say for the gutless hacks attempting to destroy her.

ADDENDUM: Melinda Henneberger over at Slate sends this garbage up beautifully:

Sounds like those McCain aides are fast-tracking their guy's return to pariah—I mean, maverick—status by alienating every last conservative who voted for him with their mean, sexist, and derriere-covering hooey about Sarah Palin. I'm sorry, but I do not for one second believe that she did not know Africa was a continent. If she threw those poor foot soldiers for democracy into a panic by appearing at her hotel-room door "essentially ... wrapped in a bathrobe''—grow up, people; it's not the first time a candidate has finished dressing on the run. And from what I saw of the crack McCain-Palin organization, somebody needed to engage in the dreaded "throwing of paperwork and things of that nature.'' I see this as the jump-start of her rehab with women voters: diva, shopaholic, temptress, hmmm. Keep up the women-hating insults, McCainiacs, and it'll be Palin in '12.

Nicely done,Ms. Henneberger...

From The Beginning

Ah, now we get to the heavy stuff,where the hard road begins and the weak die like dogs.

Here's where it gets real.

Barack Hussein Obama has just been elected as the 44th president of these United States. While for obvious practical reasons it mattered a great deal who ended up in the Oval Office, from my standpoint it was always going to be a new starting point no matter who won....a beginning either way.

And in many ways it's actually easier with McCain out of the way. It means the renewal can start from scratch, without any baggage.

McCain has been clinging to the carcass of what he calls bi-partisanship for so long he's gotten accustomed to the smell..and accustomed as well to being kicked in the crotch by the people he persists in reaching out to who despise the principles he claims to stand for.

Had he won, we could have expected him to forget absolutely everything the past year should have taught him and to make an inaugural address that emphasized in almost masturbatory fashion his delight at reaching across the aisles to work with the likes of Harry Reid, Teddy Kennedy and yes, Barack Obama.

His concession speech, gracious though it was, summed up the whole dead ethos of his campaign.

Thankfully, we'll be spared all that. Things have been sorted out nicely and whatever comes, for good or ill, will be the property of the new administration.

Don't misunderstand me. The gravity of the international situation we face with a novice in the White House, the prospect of the next president nominating at least two new Supreme Court judges and the appeal of putting Sarah Palin in position to run as the heir apparent to the presidency in 2012 all were important enough reasons to try to carry John McCain over the finish line this year.

But McCain, for whatever his own reasons were decided not to run against the current occupant of the White House or the most dysfunctional congress we've had in living memory, which was the only chance he had of prevailing. The curiously timed financial crisis and McCain's decision to make a high profile vote for a trillion dollar bail out of Congress' Wall Street cronies that was viscerally unpopular with the American people pretty much ended the ball game, promising though it looked towards the late innings.Even the delightful Sarah Palin wasn't quite enough to pull it off, though she at least kept it reasonably close.

During this election, Barack Obama's challenge was to successfully perform the feat of selling the smoke and mirrors of undefined change and triangulating to keep his ideology a secret to enough of the electorate to win...while at the same time making sure that the Left understood his essentially socialist agenda.

Thanks to his huge advantage in cash, the aid of a media on its collective knees in front of him, the disaffection of the American people towards the uniquely unpopular and flawed record of the current occupant of the White House and the novelty of his racial background he was able to succeed.

Regnat populus. And maybe the deluge afterwards, who knows?

Obama in his victory speech made a number of charming, well phrased references to the quaint idea of bi-partisan unity and working together, all delivered in his signature baritone.And a number of the usual suspects are in print today talking about how Barack Obama will govern from the center.

But the nonsense about bi-partisanship should end up being pretty short-lived. Historically, the Left doesn't govern from the center, and is motivated primarily by hatred, class warfare, identity politics and revenge...and that sort of thing is not something that just melts into the ozone.

Barack Obama has a base that embodies those themes, and he will have to satisfy that base to no small degree or end up like George Bush after 2004. There's no doubt he will attempt to have it both ways, as what's good for Barack Obama seems to trump ideological purity.It's worth noting that Obama's first official appointment was given to fellow Illinois Democrat Rahm Emanuel, as hard line a partisan as there is in Washington... but a relative moderate for a Democrat, a Clintonista connected to the Democratic Leadership Council so hated by the nutroots.

Obama is essentially a chimera, with the various groups that supported him all somehow seeing whatever they want in him. Satisfying these diverse group's expectations now that the campaign is over will be almost impossible and a sort of political triage is almost inevitable, but Obama will likely try to continue to bridge things by trumpeting about unity and 'bi-partisanship'.

Bi-partisanship is something that gets sold an awful lot these days, especially by the media and pundits on the Left. They have a vested interest in doing so, because it makes their own positions look more normal and part of the mainstream. Some would refer to that as defining deviancy downwards.

As one vulture said to the other, there's some stuff you just can't eat without getting sick yourself.

Let me show you what I mean. If you and I agree to go to a certain restaurant for dinner, we have a destination in common. We can then work out an agreement on whether we drive, walk or take the bus, which route we take, who drives,and how we split the cost or whether one of us is treating.

In other words, we have a goal in common, and now have a basis for compromise on the mechanisms.

On the other hand, if I want to go to that restaurant for dinner but you refuse to consider the idea of going to dinner at all and insist on going to a gay disco in a completely different part of the city where I know I'm not going to feel in the least bit comfortable, we no longer have a goal in common. And any movement I make to accommodate you is not only going to leave me hungry but severely compromise my principles.

In either case, that differences in goals and principles is not something that's likely going to be bridged, and it's time we simply admitted it.

That applies equally to those that revere G-d and the Constitution and favor small government, lower taxes, the free market, a strong military and a proactive foreign policy when necessary as well as though who favor turning America into a Leftist European-style social democracy and welfare state and a fundamental change in the Republic our Founding Fathers set up.

However much we might flap our lips about it, there's simply too much of a difference in direction.

And that's actually good news, at least on my side of things.

The Left may dislike admitting it, but America is still an overwhelmingly center/right nation. According to the latest Pew survey only some 37% of Americans identify themselves as 'liberal'(a category that would probably include Joe Lieberman and a lot of other relatively sane people) with only 16% of those identifying themselves as 'very liberal'.On the other hand just under 60% of Americans identify themselves as 'conservative' or 'very conservative'.

Even more interesting, these percentages remain consistent since the last time Pew took this survey, before the 2004 election.That doesn't surprise me in the least. These basic principles that make this country what it is are what attracts people from all over the world to come here in the first place, and even immigrants who come here from nanny states or quasi-nanny states soon catch the American virus as they see the possibilities for themselves and their children to ascend and excel.

That, by the way, is the real message of hope and change, not the idea of government controlling you and holding you in place through punitive taxation, regulation and social engineering. America was founded with the idea that it was a place where people could stand up for themselves and could ascend past their beginnings to engage in the quest for life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness without some faceless government impeding them at every turn and making serfs out of them.

Whenever these basic American principles are unapologetically put on the ballot, they win overwhelmingly.They weren't this time, and there's a lesson in that for the future. Our task, the renewal I'm talking about, will not be to find common ground with those who favor big government and socialism and are willing to accommodate it to seem 'bi-partisan'. Our task will be to find political leaders who embody these principles and are willing to commit to supporting them and implementing them unequivocally. As Ronald Reagan proved, this goes beyond party lines and is about direction and goals rather than affiliation.

Remember that last sentence. It will be an important part of my coming exploration of the mechanics of actually going about this, but I have no intention of writing a novel here.

As for President Obama, I'm willing to take him at his word, wish him well and see if he surprises me by reaching out towards my principles and meeting me half way.

Was he serious about punitive taxation on income tax, payrolls and investment and on over a trillion dollars in new spending, or was it just campaign rhetoric designed to gin up his base?

Does he plan to appoint judges and other members of government who are centrist and conservative in the true sense of the word or will he appoint judges who go along with his ideas about the Constitution being outdated because of how it restricts government? And what about his cabinet members? Will they be political, designed to appease the base or will they be solid, practical competent choices more towards the mainstream?

Does he plan to bankrupt the coal and nuclear energy industries, restrict drilling for American oil and allow energy prices to skyrocket to help combat the theory of global warming?

Will he deal with the prospect of a belligerent Iran the way Jimmy Carter did? Is he going to pursue a realistic victory in Afghanistan and Pakistan? What about domestic Islamist terrorism? And how about a resurgent Russia? Will President Obama support a 25% cut in our military, as Barney Frank wants?

Will he be personally honest? Will he fire or `reassign' Patrick Fitzgerald, the federal prosecutor who's doing the lion's share of the work investigating Tony Rezco and his secret deals and connections to Obama's political allies back home in Chicago? Is he prepared to honestly investigate ACORN and their role in voter fraud?

Was Jesse Jackson right about an Obama administration meaning that 'the days of Zionist control' in Washington are over'? Considering whom Obama's foreign policy team consists of, will there be a rupture between the US and our ally Israel if a center right government under Netanyahu takes over and they don't feel like giving Judea and Samaria (AKA the West Bank) and half of Jerusalem to their sworn enemies?

Will bigots and anti-Semites like Jackson, Louis Farakhan, Khalid al-Mansour, Rashid Khalidi, Jeremiah Wright and Bill Ayers be welcome at the Obama White House?

Will the Obama Administration support a new implementation of the so-called Fairness Doctrine and attempt to silence dissent? Will it treat its political opponents the way Sarah Palin and Joe the Plumber were treated? Will President Obama consent to show trials of President Bush and others of his administration, as Joe Biden has suggested?

I think I know the answers to these questions, but we shall see.

In the meantime, however, it's time for rebuilding. We've lost a battle, but not the war. This is a superb opportunity to cut away a great deal of deadwood and reaffirm the basic nature of our country, if we dare to take it. And we can win, because the principles involved are the ones that have made this country great and a magnet and example to people all over the world. The alternative is that like every other experiment in democratic republicanism before us, we will decline into decadence and despotism.

We hold in our hands the blessings of liberty the Founder bequeathed to us. This is indeed our beloved Republic..if we can keep it.

Watcher's Council Nominations, 11/05/08

The Watcher's Council is a group of some of the most incisive blogs in the`sphere. Every week, the members nominate two posts each, one of their own and one from outside the group for consideration by the whole Council. Just a note...all of these pieces were written prior to the election.

A full list of entries, including some excellent non-Council ones can be found here.

So, let's see what we have this week:

Joshuapundit - National Security Rears It’s Ugly Head - In this weeks piece, I focused on what Joe Biden inadvertently revealed a couple of weeks ago, and where the national security challenges he spoke of are likely to occur. This was written before the election, and Obama's ascension has already been greeted by Russia establishing missile bases close to Poland, rumors of an Iranian nuclear test and a new outbreak of hostilities in Gaza between Israel and Hamas.

Bookworm Room - If ignorance is bliss, ’tis folly to be wise - Ms. Bookworm anticipates the possible silver lining in an Obama administration.

Cheat-Seeking Missiles - Prop 8, Gay Marriage and the Spread of Islamofascism - Laer writes about the connection between legalizing same sex marriage in a locale and the attraction it has for Islamists seeking a haven for polygamy.

He's one hundred per cent correct, strange as it seems. Once same sex marriage was legalized in most of Western Europe, the lawyers saw to it that not only polygamy but bestiality became legal in many locales as just another 'choice in lifestyle.' And in some countries, like the Netherlands, there is even a small cottage industry involving bestiality sex tourism..I kid you not.

Literally a case of what's good for the sow being good for the goat, I suppose.

Soccer Dad - Wednesday morning quarterbacking - Soccer Dad, with his typical ingenuity wrote what he characterized as rants for either eventuality on election day. He's lucky there wasn't an electoral tie!

The Colossus of Rhodey - The real worry about an Obama presidency - Hube focuses on something that's likewise one of my chief concerns...the radical judges a President Obama is likely to appoint to the federal bench.

The Razor - If Obama Wins… Part 3 -Scott lays it on the line..if Obama wins, the excuses are over and he expects him to perform.

The Glittering Eye - Why the Financial Fixes Aren’t Working - Dave Schuler gives us an in depth look at his opinion on why the bail outs aren't providing the stimulus to the economy they were supposed to.

McCain Concedes

I love it when they bend over before all the votes are counted and screw over the people down ticket.

Well, McCain lost with `honor', just like he always wanted to, I suppose.

Live Blogging, Continued

WM: What up, FF

FF: MSNBC just called Pennsylvania for Obama..with zero per cent of the precints reporting.. CNN just jumped on th ebandwagon with 1% of the precints reporting and only 25,000 votes cast.

WM: Sounds like wishful thinking to me.

FF: Yeah..McCain is currently ahead in Indiana and Virginia, behind in Florida and North Carolina.

WM: If Obama takes Florida, it's over.

<6:00 PM>

WM: Hey FF, I got some stuff on the senate races

FF: Fure away, Monkey

WM: Lindsey Graham held his seat for the GOP in South Carolina, no surprise. They're projecting GOP senators Mitch McConnel(KY) and Susan Collins (ME) as winning as well.
For thed Donkeys, three pickups so far, Shaheen in New Hampshire, Warner in Virginia, and Hagen in North Carolina.

FF: That last doesn't look good for McCain...

<6:22 PST>

FF: Monkey, some of these numbers seem weird to me. They're projecting Wisconsin and Michigan for Obama, but both places have only one per cent of the precincts reporting..and Mccain is ahead in both states.

WM: Are we still dealing with exit polls or actual numbers?

FF: Exit polls...and in PA there's no hard numbers yet to warrant a call, as far as I'm concerned. Remember Florida last time? I just got some numbers for Ohio, McCain is 19 points behind Obama with 6% of the vote counted.

<6:48PM PST>

Obama is projected as having won both Ohio and PA. Florida and North Carolina are too close to call. McCain is ahead in Indiana and Virginia.Tight races still in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan

<8:20 PM PST>

MSNBC has already projected Obama the winner, giving Florida and Virginia to Obama. So has CNN, although they show Florida up for grabs. FOX too. Unfortunately, it looks like Fat Jack Murtha won as well..pity.

Monkey, pour me another drink.

Live Blogging 4:48PST

FF: Howdy Monkey!

WM: Hey FF! Wanna drink?

FF: Sure! Gimmee a margarita.Hello Gruppstein!

WM: Coming up.

LG: Hiya FF! Nice to see you...

FF: Likewise. Well Monkey, we have our first calls. CNN has Kentucky for McCain and Vermont for Obama.

WM: What was the spread?

FF: About what you'd expect. About 67% for Obama in Vermont,60% for McCain. FOX is also calling West Virginia and South Carolina for McCain. I think they're being a little premature. CNN is also showing McCain ahead in Indiana and Georgia, and Obama slightly ahead in Florida and North Carolina. I wouldn't call any of them yet.

WM: Yeah..especially cause the Florida panhandle hasn't come in yet.

FF: Let's have that drink and signoff for now...

The National Journal Poll Is Up

As I mentioned during my last piece with Weekend Monkey, I was fortunate to be included by the National Journal in a poll of so-called 'influential bloggers' to predict and comment on the election race. The aggregate polls and comments are here.

My predictions are essentially the same ones I discussed in the last Real Banana with Weekend Monkey: McCain wins, 286 electoral votes to 252.

As far as the battleground/states listed as toss ups go, I believe McCain will take Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, Arizona and possibly Virginia.

Obama will take Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico and possibly Virginia..although I'm calling Virginia for McCain. If Obama does manage to eke out a win in Virginia, McCain will win it 273-265, which is what Monkey predicted.

The Dems will pick up six senate seats max and 15-20 seats in the House.

This radically disagrees with almost all of the pollsters, although the better ones (Rasmussen, IBD/Tipp, Battleground) have left themselves sufficient wiggle room.I'm basing this prediction on several factors. First, where the candidates have been concentrating their public appearances, which are very different than the polls woul dindicate. Second, my look at various internals of the polls, where are vastly oversampling Democrats. In some cases ( Zogby, for instance) the pollsters, who are hired by the dinosaur media for the most part are contractually obligated to oversample Democrats. And last, what my gut tells me about the movement I've observed on the ground.

By this time tomorrow, I'll either be hailed or crucified. Ultimately, what happens today is in G-d's hands, and I'm fine with it.

What To Expect Tommorow..And How To Handle It

This piece will stay at the top of the thread until tomorrow...

My intention here is to give you a good idea of what to expect, and more importantly how to cope with it.

*The first thing I recommend is that you stay away from the dinosaur media as much as possible, at least until the polls in your home state are officially closed and you've voted.

Rest assured that the dinosaur media have a vested interest in the Chosen One's coronation.

They are likely to do whatever it takes to discourage turnout for McCain-Palin...skewed exit polls showing Obama way ahead and early calling of states as Obama wins while the polls are still open, lies from the punditry yakking it up about a blowout. Ignore them. We'll find out the truth soon enough, and it's your responsibility to keep yourself in a frame of mind where you realize your vote counts. Remember, in 2004 the media's fake early call of Florida for Gore cost the GOP an estimated 7,500 votes or more in the panhandle.

And realize that no matter what happens in the presidential vote, your vote is vital in affecting elections for Congress and your state legislature.

*If you must tune in to the media, concentrate on the sources that have always presented the truth to you - talk radio, the blogosphere and FOX on a good day.

I and Weekend Monkey will likely be doing some live blogging, especially late at night when it counts. We'll keep you up to date.

* Channel your anxiety and energy into helping to get the vote out if you can.

Call your local McCain campaign office and ask if you can man the phones or help get people to the polls. If they're too incompetent to come up with a way to utilize you, here's an idea. Aside from calling people you know and reminding them to vote, check out the local VA hospital or your local veteran's home. You'll likely find some of our warriors there who are prepared to vote the right way and could use a lift to the polls.

Be on watch for irregular goings on at the polling places.If you see anything, report it

This would include electioneering within a certain distance from a polling place ( check your local ordinances) including t-shirts, signs,or buttons; any kind of intimidation; anything suspicious you see going on regarding ballots or voting that doesn't look or feel right.

99.9% of the folks working as precinct workers or election judges are decent, honorable people with a sincere commitment to overseeing a free and fair election, no matter what their personal politics might be. If you see something questionable going on, don't be afraid to talk to them about it.

Plus, the McCain-Palin campaign has set up a hotline to report irregularities.
The number is 866-976-VOTE.

As to what we have in store, no matter who wins, be alert and expect some violence, even if Obama wins. Any member of the Los Angeles Police Department who was on duty during the 'celebrations' over the Laker's basketball championships knows this firsthand. Now you do too.

Expect a long night before we know the real results, and very likely some legal shenanigans in an attempt to influence things one way or the other. From what we've seen of the Obama campaign, I would expect no less.

Keep yourself cheerful, upbeat and manifesting good energy, no matter what. We're going to win this one. And rest assured, our Republic's going to ultimately be fine whatever happens.

MOST IMPORTANT, DAMMIT! GO VOTE! NO EXCUSES!

A Little Cajun put Down For Obama....

OBAMA, NO MERCI BEAUCOUP!!



No thanks, Obama...Vous parlez trop trash à la bouche que de la vôtre!

Just a little message from some of those bitter, clinging hicks in flyover country, courtesy of Poor James and the Swamp Crows.

NOW GO VOTE, DAMMIT!



hattip, Gateway Pundit

Obama: Bankrupting The Coal Industry

The latest unpleasant factoid to slip out about Obama concerns his plans to bankrupt the American coal industry, increase unemployment and skyrocket energy prices.


The above audio came from an interview given by Obama to the San Francisco Chronicle in January of 2008:

“But ... let me sort of describe my overall policy. What I’ve said is that we would put a cap and trade policy in place that is as aggressive if not more aggressive than anyone out there. I was the first call for 100 percent auction on the cap and trade system. Which means that every unit of carbon or greenhouse gases that was emitted would be charged to the polluter. That will create a market in which whatever technologies are out there that are being presented, whatever power plants are being built, they would have to meet the rigors of that market and the ratcheted-down caps that are imposed every year.

“So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can. It’s just that it will bankrupt them because they’re going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted. That will also generate billions of dollars that we can invest in solar, wind, biodiesel, and other alternative energy approaches. The only thing that I’ve said with respect to coal — I haven’t been some coal booster. What I have said is that for us to take coal off the table as an ideological matter, as opposed to saying if technology allows us to use coal in a clean way, we should pursue it, that I think is the right approach. The same with respect to nuclear. Right now, we don’t know how to store nuclear waste wisely and we don’t know how to deal with some of the safety issues that remain. And so it’s wildly expensive to pursue nuclear energy. But I tell you what, if we could figure out how to store it safely, then I think most of us would say that might be a pretty good deal.

“The point is, if we set rigorous standards for the allowable emissions, then we can allow the market to determine and technology and entrepreneurs to pursue, what the best approach is to take, as opposed to us saying at the outset, here are the winners that we’re picking and maybe we pick wrong and maybe we pick right.”

What Obama is saying is that his administration will impose massive cap and trade restrictions that will effectively shut down the coal industry (and nuclear as well) in America..unless magical technologies are invented that allow coal to be used that meets Obama's environmental standards.

That bears repeating; Obama is telling us quite clearly that he's going to tax and penalize both the coal and nuclear industries into bankruptcy, and he's only open to utilizing these energy sources if there are magical new technologies in the future that developments which let us release the energy in coal without releasing any carbon dioxide or make spent nuclear fuels completely risk-free, tests that ethanol and hydroelectric power would be unable to meet in spite of their characterization as 'safe, clean energy.'

This dovetails with Joe Biden's remarks that were caught on camera about not utilizing coal in America, even with the relatively safe and environmentally friendly gassification processes that exist today.

Inth esame interview, Obama also acknowledges that his policies will cause energy rates to skyrocket. Ed Morrisey at Hot Air has the vid and the transcript:

The problem is not technical, uh, and the problem is not mastery of the legislative intricacies of Washington. The problem is, uh, can you get the American people to say, “This is really important,” and force their representatives to do the right thing? That requires mobilizing a citizenry. That requires them understanding what is at stake. Uh, and climate change is a great example.

You know, when I was asked earlier about the issue of coal, uh, you know — Under my plan of a cap and trade system, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket. Even regardless of what I say about whether coal is good or bad. Because I’m capping greenhouse gases, coal power plants, you know, natural gas, you name it — whatever the plants were, whatever the industry was, uh, they would have to retrofit their operations. That will cost money. They will pass that money on to consumers.

They — you — you can already see what the arguments will be during the general election. People will say, “Ah, Obama and Al Gore, these folks, they’re going to destroy the economy, this is going to cost us eight trillion dollars,” or whatever their number is. Um, if you can’t persuade the American people that yes, there is going to be some increase in electricity rates on the front end, but that over the long term, because of combinations of more efficient energy usage, changing lightbulbs and more efficient appliance, but also technology improving how we can produce clean energy, the economy would benefit.

If we can’t make that argument persuasively enough, you — you, uh, can be Lyndon Johnson, you can be the master of Washington. You’re not going to get that done.

The one thing Obama, like most socialists doesn't understand that with high energy costs, taxes and massive government regulations in a stagnating economy, businesses aren't going to be investing in reasearch and develoment...they'll be retrenching, laying off people and raising prices to cover their increased overhead.

High taxes, skyrocketing energy costs and a retreat abroad..sounds a lot like the Carter years to me.

Don't forget to vote.

Ronald Reagan's Acceptance Speech, 1980

Reagan's acceptance speech, given 28 years ago in Detroit...and just as applicable in its main message today as it was then.

You see, President Reagan had a few things to say about honor, freedom, the basic principles our country was founded on and Big Government.

I suggest you take a few minutes and listen to it before you vote.

The Real Banana On Politics With Weekend Monkey: Election Predictions

FF: Once again,it's time to creep through the rancid political jungle with JoshuaPundit's own political guru and former Democratic Presidential Candidate, my pal Weekend Monkey.

WM: Hideyho, Primates! Whaddup, FF?

FF: So, you're back in the land of the living and all sobered up again, hmmm? Ready to give everybody the line on the elections?

WM: You betcha FF. There's some serious money to be made, I think...

FF: So you're laying? And from what you just said, I assume your putting your shekels on McCain to win?

WM: Yeah...my gut tells me 'upset'.Especially the way the polls have been ginning up lately.

FF: Well, that means something to me, given your track record. We're in agreement on this one Monkey.

WM: Really! You got some specifics, FF? Or you just blowing smoke?

FF: Well, Monkey, the National Journal tagged me as an 'influential blogger' in a survey they're doing. I'll give you the same line I gave them.

I see McCain winning. The IBD/TIPP poll was the most accurate in `04 and today it shows McCain in a statistical dead heat with Obama, and both Zogby and Pew show McCain slightly ahead among likely voters. What that tells me is that Obama hasn't closed the sale, and the undecideds are breaking towards McCain.Given Obama's negatives, I think he has to be at 52-53% to win...maybe more.

WM: Hey, let's remember our little talk about polls, FF...

FF: Yeah, I know. But they also tend to firm up right before the election, because they don't want to look like chumps...cuts into their bottom line when people want to hire 'em next time out.

WM: True enough.

FF: Plus, I see Obama going to places like Iowa, where he's supposed to have things all sown up, so I sense some movement.

WM: Oh c'mon FF! Obama's gonna take Iowa.

FF: And probably Colorado and New Mexico too. But he's going to lose the other Red States that are supposedly toss ups, including Nevada, North Carolina, Florida and Missouri...with the possible exception of Virginia, depending on the turnout.

WM: So where do you see McCain picking up ground?

FF: Pennsylvania. McCain will take both Pennsylvania and Ohio this year.That would give him 286 electoral votes, to Obama's 252.

WM: Hmmmm...We're not too far apart except I think Obama takes Virginia. There's a strong Democrat tide there this year, and Mark Warner is gonna give Virginia its second Donkey senator. I call it McCain, 273, Obama 265. As far as momentum goes, yeah..I see it going the same way. The indies are breaking mostly for McCain and any state Obama isn't up by more than 50% is gonna be a problem for him.

FF: Numbers, Monkey?

WM: I'm seeing street odds of nine to one for Obama, which means you can hedge properly and make some money either way..which is how I'm playing it. Since I see McCain winning, I'll weight it that way...with a few bucks down on Obama as insurance. By the way..howcum the National Journal didn't pick me as an influential blogger?? Hmm? My track records a lot better than yours.

FF: Sheer species-ist prejudice, I suppose. Let's go over the Senate races.

WM: Okay....I see some significant pickups this year for my Democrats. Out of the competitive and open seats, I see us getting Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Alaska, North Carolina and Oregon, at the very least.

Warner will walk away with the seat in Virginia, and Jean Shaheen will beat John Sununu like a gong. Mark Udall should knock off Bob Shaffer for Wayne Allard's open seat pretty easily...I'd say by at least five points. In New Mexico, Tom Udall has the cash and the clout to win over right wing whacko Steve Pearce with big numbers.

Now that Ted Stevens is on his way to the thug jug after being convicted, I can't see how he wins, even in Alaska.

In North Carolina, I think Elizabeth Dole is on the way out.I mean, running ads inferring that her Donkey opponent is godless and then we find out Kay Hagen teaches Sunday School! Dole's too stupid to be a senator, pulling that one. Last I heard, she's down by five.

In Oregon, Gordon Smith is goin' down. He's be doing that tightrope dance for too long in a blue state, and this is the year he falls.

A seven seat pickup, FF. Seven.

FF: Again, we're pretty close but not quite together, Monkey. I agree with all your picks except Gordon Smith..never underestimate an incumbent, especially one who was smart enough to run against Bush. And I wouldn't be surprised if Dole pulled it out, although I agree it looks bad for her right now.That gives you six seats...five if Dole wins.

There's also Louisiana, Monkey..a red state with a Democrat incumbent,Mary Landrieu that still might flip. That would give the Dems a net pickup of four, Monkey.

WM: No way Kennedy beats Landrieu, FF..but we'll see on the 4th.

FF: I notice you didn't mention Minnesota.

WM: I don't really have a line on that one way or the other, and Franken and Coleman are pretty close...plus there's that wack third party candidate, Barkley to queer the outcome. I figure Coleman hangs on by his fingertips.

FF: The House, Monkey?

WM: I figure a Dem pickup of somewhere between 15 and twenty seats. And there are some long time Donkeys, like Murtha and Kanjorski that are going to go down.

FF: Yeah, I pretty much come up with the same numbers. Given how this Congress has behaved, it ought to be a lot more turnover from both parties.What do you figure we'll see on election night?

WM: Are you kidding, FF? Look for weirdly skewed exit polls and early calls by the media for Obama. We won't know the real numbers until late.

FF: Yeah, I figure they'll be calling states for Obama even while the polls are open..to depress GOP turnout. And I wouldn't be surprised to see the lawyers engaged in some shenanigans as well.We hanging out election night? If McCain wins, we get to watch Chris Matthews and Olbermann's heads explode on live TV!!

WM: Yeah..I'd like that. I'll fire up the hot tub, stock up the bar and make sure I have plenty of ice.

FF: Maybe we'll do some live blogging. You gonna invite over any of your old pals from the 'Weekend Monkey for President' girls like New Year's?

WM: Yeah. I think so....And Gruppstein'll be their, she's always superb entertainment value. Anyway see you then...hideyho, Primates!

FF: Adios,Monkey...

Halloween Horror For Democrats!!!

Oh, the humanity.....