FF: Once again,it's time to creep through the rancid political jungle with JoshuaPundit's own political guru and former Democratic Presidential Candidate, my pal Weekend Monkey.
WM: Hideyho, Primates! Whaddup, FF?
FF: So, you're back in the land of the living and all sobered up again, hmmm? Ready to give everybody the line on the elections?
WM: You betcha FF. There's some serious money to be made, I think...
FF: So you're laying? And from what you just said, I assume your putting your shekels on McCain to win?
WM: Yeah...my gut tells me 'upset'.Especially the way the polls have been ginning up lately.
FF: Well, that means something to me, given your track record. We're in agreement on this one Monkey.
WM: Really! You got some specifics, FF? Or you just blowing smoke?
FF: Well, Monkey, the National Journal tagged me as an 'influential blogger' in a survey they're doing. I'll give you the same line I gave them.
I see McCain winning. The IBD/TIPP poll was the most accurate in `04 and today it shows McCain in a statistical dead heat with Obama, and both Zogby and Pew show McCain slightly ahead among likely voters. What that tells me is that Obama hasn't closed the sale, and the undecideds are breaking towards McCain.Given Obama's negatives, I think he has to be at 52-53% to win...maybe more.
WM: Hey, let's remember our little talk about polls, FF...
FF: Yeah, I know. But they also tend to firm up right before the election, because they don't want to look like chumps...cuts into their bottom line when people want to hire 'em next time out.
WM: True enough.
FF: Plus, I see Obama going to places like Iowa, where he's supposed to have things all sown up, so I sense some movement.
WM: Oh c'mon FF! Obama's gonna take Iowa.
FF: And probably Colorado and New Mexico too. But he's going to lose the other Red States that are supposedly toss ups, including Nevada, North Carolina, Florida and Missouri...with the possible exception of Virginia, depending on the turnout.
WM: So where do you see McCain picking up ground?
FF: Pennsylvania. McCain will take both Pennsylvania and Ohio this year.That would give him 286 electoral votes, to Obama's 252.
WM: Hmmmm...We're not too far apart except I think Obama takes Virginia. There's a strong Democrat tide there this year, and Mark Warner is gonna give Virginia its second Donkey senator. I call it McCain, 273, Obama 265. As far as momentum goes, yeah..I see it going the same way. The indies are breaking mostly for McCain and any state Obama isn't up by more than 50% is gonna be a problem for him.
FF: Numbers, Monkey?
WM: I'm seeing street odds of nine to one for Obama, which means you can hedge properly and make some money either way..which is how I'm playing it. Since I see McCain winning, I'll weight it that way...with a few bucks down on Obama as insurance. By the way..howcum the National Journal didn't pick me as an influential blogger?? Hmm? My track records a lot better than yours.
FF: Sheer species-ist prejudice, I suppose. Let's go over the Senate races.
WM: Okay....I see some significant pickups this year for my Democrats. Out of the competitive and open seats, I see us getting Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Alaska, North Carolina and Oregon, at the very least.
Warner will walk away with the seat in Virginia, and Jean Shaheen will beat John Sununu like a gong. Mark Udall should knock off Bob Shaffer for Wayne Allard's open seat pretty easily...I'd say by at least five points. In New Mexico, Tom Udall has the cash and the clout to win over right wing whacko Steve Pearce with big numbers.
Now that Ted Stevens is on his way to the thug jug after being convicted, I can't see how he wins, even in Alaska.
In North Carolina, I think Elizabeth Dole is on the way out.I mean, running ads inferring that her Donkey opponent is godless and then we find out Kay Hagen teaches Sunday School! Dole's too stupid to be a senator, pulling that one. Last I heard, she's down by five.
In Oregon, Gordon Smith is goin' down. He's be doing that tightrope dance for too long in a blue state, and this is the year he falls.
A seven seat pickup, FF. Seven.
FF: Again, we're pretty close but not quite together, Monkey. I agree with all your picks except Gordon Smith..never underestimate an incumbent, especially one who was smart enough to run against Bush. And I wouldn't be surprised if Dole pulled it out, although I agree it looks bad for her right now.That gives you six seats...five if Dole wins.
There's also Louisiana, Monkey..a red state with a Democrat incumbent,Mary Landrieu that still might flip. That would give the Dems a net pickup of four, Monkey.
WM: No way Kennedy beats Landrieu, FF..but we'll see on the 4th.
FF: I notice you didn't mention Minnesota.
WM: I don't really have a line on that one way or the other, and Franken and Coleman are pretty close...plus there's that wack third party candidate, Barkley to queer the outcome. I figure Coleman hangs on by his fingertips.
FF: The House, Monkey?
WM: I figure a Dem pickup of somewhere between 15 and twenty seats. And there are some long time Donkeys, like Murtha and Kanjorski that are going to go down.
FF: Yeah, I pretty much come up with the same numbers. Given how this Congress has behaved, it ought to be a lot more turnover from both parties.What do you figure we'll see on election night?
WM: Are you kidding, FF? Look for weirdly skewed exit polls and early calls by the media for Obama. We won't know the real numbers until late.
FF: Yeah, I figure they'll be calling states for Obama even while the polls are open..to depress GOP turnout. And I wouldn't be surprised to see the lawyers engaged in some shenanigans as well.We hanging out election night? If McCain wins, we get to watch Chris Matthews and Olbermann's heads explode on live TV!!
WM: Yeah..I'd like that. I'll fire up the hot tub, stock up the bar and make sure I have plenty of ice.
FF: Maybe we'll do some live blogging. You gonna invite over any of your old pals from the 'Weekend Monkey for President' girls like New Year's?
WM: Yeah. I think so....And Gruppstein'll be their, she's always superb entertainment value. Anyway see you then...hideyho, Primates!
FF: Adios,Monkey...
2 comments:
This is a very interesting analysis. Freedom Fighter is one of the best bloggers/political commentators on the Web. Weekend Monkey has an impressive track record in picking elections, as wekk as providing alwasy inciteful political commentary. I very much appreciate the hard work of both of you.
Both of you are picking McCain. Given you excellent track records and knowledge of the political scene, the opinions of both of you should be taken seriously, however, I find it hard to envision a way McCain can win this one. For example, how doe she overcome the massive voter fraud committed by team Obama? Even if McCain wins, how does he perform his duties as President? Given his lackluster campaign, I'm not sure he really wants to win. If he doesn't really want to win and be President, how will he possibily muster the will or the energy to fight against the main stream media? You can bet they and their allies within the government bureacracy and the likely Democrat congress will be trying to destroy him from day one, if not before.
With all of this said I hope and pray you are both right. I pray McCain wins.
This was an election that was polled by the bias mainstream media illuminati, and tricked alot of people from the start.
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