Wednesday, May 07, 2014

Breaking: Assad Scores major Victory In Syria

Syrian dictator Basher Assad's forces have scored a major victory in Syria against the rebel forces.

Today, the rebels were forced to evacuate as the city of Homs, once thought of as 'the rebel capitol' of Syria reverted back to the control of Assad's troops.

The insurgents had been besieged for months, and after al-Nusra failed to break the siege with a series of suicide bombings they were forced surrender to Assad's forces. The insurgents released a number of hostages being held by rebels in Aleppo and Latakia provinces, including 70 Lebanese Hezbollah fighters, 20 Iranian officers captured by the Islamic Front in Aleppo and an Iranian female agent who was captured at the end of March,and also ended the sieges of the pro-Assad Shiite enclaves of Nubul and Zahraa.

In exchange, they were allowed safe conduct to the rebel-held town of Al-Dara Al-Kabira and given transport on buses provided by the regime. Almost all of their arms had to be left behind, with each rebel allowed one rifle each and one RPG allowed per busload.

 Map of Homs, showing Old Homs

Buses preparing to take rebels from Old City of Homs (7 May 2014)

Once the rebels are out of Homs, Assad's forces will move in to clear the city of mines, booby traps, barricades and any other surprises the retreating jihadis may have left behind..and of course, to settle any old scores outstanding in classic Arab fashion.

Assad's forces have been racking up significant victories in this war as of late, and Homs falling into their hands is a significant victory. The fighting's by no means over yet, but that's how it's trending, with the insurgents being forced to ever decreasing territories along the northern, southern and western borders.

Something like 150,000 people have been killed in the civil war, atrocities have been widespread on both sides and millions of refugees have been displaced. Syria may take generations to recover. If Assad is thinking straight and wants to end this, he had better be planning to throw some carrots to the survivors. He's already shown them he knows all too well how to use the stick.


louielouie said...

i was with ff right up until that last para.

Syria may take generations to recover.
really? that soon? 20? reminds me of a long time ago in a galaxy far far away.

If Assad is thinking straight and wants to end this, he had better be planning to throw some carrots to the survivors.
ok, that just does not make sense on so many levels. assad straight thinking? do you REALLY think he wants to end this? why? this is the arab world. if he stops now, it will start all over again, and he has seen all the photos of what happened to kadaffy and ambassador stevens. i say this will continue on low burner, and give grandson ff something to write about.

He's already shown them he knows all too well how to use the stick.
maybe the carrot will be to not use the stick. this is the arab world we're speaking of, right? when they are losing they demand leniency and compassion, when they are winning they show neither.

hussein is so jealous of assad. if he could do to the US what assad has done to syria he would consider it a rousing success.

B.Poster said...

The media has been telling us for what about two years now that Assad's complete and total victory is imminent. Maybe they are finally right.

As for sticks and carrots, the time to use the carrot is when the enemy is completely and totally defeated and at no time before this. US military leaders should study the strategic thinking and tactics of Assad's forces. They would learn much if they did.

The bottom line is unless one has both the ability and the willingness to what it takes to wage war to win one should not undertake in war and should seek to avoid it. Bashar Assad has shown us how its done. American military leaders should study this closely. Unfortunately Syria's tactics and strategic thinking are light years ahead of us. As such, I'm skeptical that US military leaders and civilian leaders would even be capable of understanding it.

Rob said...

Actually Poster, the reverse is true. The media have been talking about how Assad was history as part of the miraculous 'Arab Spring' until fairly recently.

Obamabots, y'know.

And this? : Syria's tactics and strategic thinking are light years ahead of us.

So the fact that the American public,not to mention the American military aren't interested in perpetrating massacres, mass rape, terrorism and sheer brutality for its own sake bothers you? You like those tactics?

I really can't imagine where you come up with this stuff!

B.Poster said...


Thanks for the reply to my post. As for "fairly recently," if you mean the last 9 months to a year you'd probably be right. At the beginning, it was about 75/25 how this was reported with 75% saying Assad was doomed. This lasted about a month or so. Then the reports changed to about 50/50 for the next 9 months or so. Since that time, they've mostly been reporting the demise of the rebels and the victory of Assad's forces.

As for the media being Obamabots, this is largely true because the main objective of much of the media is to weaken America. They view Mr. Obama and his team as better able to achieve that goal than the opposition, hence we see the support for him in the media.

"I really can't imagine where you come up with this stuff!" I read and cross read starting with non main stream sources and then move on to the main stream sources with the goal of trying to get the complete picture a picture as possible. Then try and not let oneself be blinded by ideology and try to understand things as they are and not as one might wish them to be!! I hope that clarifies. As for the rest, I thought I was clear but rereading the post it probably does need clarification which will be in another post.

B.Poser said...

As stated previously, I should clarify my post. As for "tactics", this involves things like planning the steps one takes to achieve the broader goal, capturing, securing, and holding territory, as well as how resources should be deployed to achieve the goals that have been set out.

"Strategic thinking" involves things such as understanding the nature of the enemy, setting a clear goal for military action or other actions the state or individual may take, and understanding one's self with a realistic assessment of one's strengths and weaknesses.

In this sense, the Syrians are in fact light years ahead of us. As for the other stuff, I do not condone that and I think you'd know from reading my other posts that I do not condone such things.

I'd hope the American people do not either. Furthermore I'd hope the military does not either. With that said, these are war zones the government has inserted our warriors into. We cannot have them sent into these situations with ridiculous rules of engagement. Furthermore if media reports are to be taken at face value America is the most violent country on earth and its military forces are how you describe Syria but on steroids so to speak.

I DO NOT take these media reports at face value but it really does not matter much of the world does and, as such, the truth of the matter really makes no difference as they fully believe it. We will need to work on doing a better job of getting our message out (tactics) and we will need to have coherent approach to what this actually is (strategy.) The areas in which our leadership has gone off the rails is to numerous to list here. Two recent examples. 1.) The US has foolishly inserted itself into the situation in Ukraine. We need to be looking to extricate ourselves by essentially any means necessary. Instead we did a deeper hole for ourselves. 2.)US Naval officials were recently confronted with the fact that Iran can now sink our aircraft carriers in under 50 seconds. There response is ridicule of the Iranians. Either they are a.) lying and trying to put a happy face on this or b.) they just flat don't get it!! Either way, not good. A more appropriate response would have been something along the lines of "we monitor Iranian actions and have taken the appropriate counter measures." At least, they'd be demonstrating at least a minimal understanding of the situation.

Like I said US military leaders could learn much from studying the strategy and tactics used by the Syrian military. They'd learn something but at this point I don't think they are smart enough to either recognize how inferior they really are or are capable of even understanding the methods used by the Syrian military.

Finally, as for the mass rape, terrorism, and sheer brutality thing, as stated previously I do NOT condone such things. Much of the world thinks America does condone such things and is the chief instigator of such things. I'd suggest doing a better job of getting our message out that this is not what we are about. At some point, we are going to need allies to assist us. Unless something is done quickly in this area, we will have none.

Anonymous said...

Could he be winning by using other methods?
Loosing in this case mean not just a regime change but a general massacre of alawites and other minorities.
I think the west has a wrong view of war and what is going on in Siria looks like a lot of wars through history, maybe the majority of them and for sure those in that region.