Tuesday, October 14, 2014
The Return! Weekend Monkey And The Real Banana Analyzes The Midterms
It's with great pleasure (I think) that I welcome back Weekend Monkey to these pages, Joshuapundit's own political guru.
R: Hello Monkey, It's good to have you back.
WM: Wish I could say the same...no offense but y'know this represents a huge pay cut for me.
R: Your gratitude overwhelms me. Look at it this way, now you're your own man..uh..monkey instead of living off the taxpayers.
WM: Baboon poop! I loved living off the taxpayers! I had my own office, my own intern..
R: Look, I'm sorry that gig as Elizabeth Warren's senior adviser didn't last. What happened, anyway?
WM: I don't wanna discuss it.
R: Monkey, c'mon. You owe your fans a true account after the long absence..
WM: Awright already! Look, that #@@#! pep talk I gave her before that big speech at the convention when Elizabeth Warren opened for Clinton changed things around, y'know? It was a prime spot, she hit a real home run and the next thing you know she's a senator. And I was working my tail off for her too, hitting the college campuses, manning the phone banks. And we were, y'know, friends.
R: Close friends.
WM: Yeah, reee-al close. So she made me her special adviser, we're in DC and I'm picking out the decor for my office. And then, well....
R: What happened, Monkey?
WM: It just got really stressful. DC is a dirty little town, and before you know it she hired some high powered schmucks as staffers who were bitching about me being there...and it got worse as she started getting all that attention as a Shrillery alternative.She's just not the same person she was.
R: And you slipped back into your old habits again.
WM: Whadda'ya mean, old habits!!
R: Don't even, Monkey, there are lots of pictures from that drunken rampage at the Capitol Lounge:
Looks like you were mixing Bushmills and banana extract again. And there was that poor waitress you groped and had your paws all over when the bouncer was 'escorting' you out the door.I hear that Warren's office had to pay out a couple grand so she didn't press charges and get it in the papers.From what I've been told, it wasn't the first time either.
WM: OK, so I was STRESSED, awright? I could tell stories about a coupla places you've been tossed out of.
R: Well yeah, but not as a senatorial aide.And not for referring to my boss as a..what was it you called her again?
WM: Never mind. I was pretty out of it. Anyway, I got the axe.
R: You mean, the tomahawk, hah hah hah!
WM: Lay off...you think of that one all by yourself?
R: Confession is good for the soul, Monkey. It means you can start fresh. You won't need to go back into rehab again.
WM: Nah, although I gotta admit you meet interesting people there.
R: So let's get down to politics. Do you really see Elizabeth Warren as a Hillary alternative?
WM: Maybe. You see, Shrillery is really one of the easiest people in the world to dislike. She had good approval ratings because she was out of the spotlight. The Bamster pretty much had her as a messenger girl, all the important stuff had special envoys taking care of it.And then, there's Benghazi. Even the knee-pad scribblers aren't gonna be able to get her past that one.
R: Well, we'll see. I still see her getting the nomination and running. And the Progtards? Who else are they going to vote for, a Republican? Actually, I see the Dems teaming her up with a Hispanic male or maybe a real Lefty like Warren as a sop to the base.
WM: I wouldn't even speculate this far out.
R: That's for sure. So let's talk about what staring us in the face, the Midterms.
WM: Okey dokes. Look, it's pretty obvious my Democrats are going to lose some senate seats. The way I see it, that's mostly Harry Reid's fault.
WM: Yeah. Y'see, He came up with the bright idea of having a buncha Democrats run to the center in 2008 in Red states to convince the local primates that they were conservative Democrats.Of course, once they got to DC Reid leaned on them to vote for all of Obama's policies including ObamaCare and the mask was off, so now with Obammy really unpopular they have to go home and face the rage of the primates. The big question is how many seats, and I think it's gonna be tighter than a lotta people realize.
R: How do you see the key races turning out? Let's go over 'em.
WM: OK, but I gotta tell you, I might change my mind on some of them before Election Day and change the odds.
R: You still booking election bets?
WM: Yeah, 3 points for the vig. OK, the races. I think we can pretty much give the ReThugs West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana. They're all Red States where the Democrat incumbents fled rather than face the primate's wrath and they all have strong and well known ReThug candidates running against jerk offs. That puts the Rethugs half way there to winning the senate.
I see them also hanging on to Georgia. Sonny Perdue has run a decent campaign, and let's face it..Michelle Nunn ain't exactly a Jawjuh Peech...she was raised in DC, and it shows every time she opens her yap. The fake drawl ain't cutting it.
R: And then there's that voter fraud scandal her campaign's been implicated in.
WM: Eh! So people were voting a little early and often. That's the Democrat tradition. But anyway, I see that as a ReThug hold. I'll offer 5 to 1 on Nunn.
North Carolina, I'm gonna call for Kay Hagen as a Democrat hold, 3 to 1 with 6 to 3 on Tillis. He made the same stupid mistake Romney did, allowing Hagen to demonize him and fix a negative image of him in the primate's minds.
R: You know the polls show him gaining, even tied with her..
WM: That was one stoo-pid poll. But he could be moving ahead, so I may reassess that one later.
Arkansas and Louisiana will probably go Rethug, but I'm a lot surer about Arkansas than I am about Louisiana. Obammy is biblically unpopular in Arkansas and Tom Cotton has a decent lead over Mark Pryor, who's way too tied to Obammy. 3 to 1 on Cotton winning.
In Gumboville things are a lot more volatile.For one thing, they have that weird open primary November 4 and then a runoff if nobody gets 50%. Mary Landrieu's running unopposed as a Dem but there are two Rethugs battling it out. Landrieu has been around, and she knows how to take advantage of that kind of situation, so anything could happen. I 'm not offering any odds on that one, although the polling indicates that IF Bill Cassidy is the nominee he would probably beat Landrieu. We'll see.
R: Iowa and Colorado?
WM: Iowa and Colorado both ought to be good opportunities for pickups for the Repugs, but I wouldn't write 'em off for a real surprise. .Iowa is another open seat where Dem Tom Harkin retired, and Joni Ernst has done a pretty good job kicking around Democrat Bruce Braley, but it's still close..and I definitely don't see Colorado as low hanging fruit for the rethugs..
R: I loved her ad about being a hog castrator.
WM: Hee hee hee, yeah!
R: And what this stuff about Colorado, Monkey? Correy Gardner's ahead in all the polls and even the Denver Post trashed Mark Udall and endorsed Gardner. And they're not exactly a Republican paper...
WM: Ah hah hah hah! Have you seen Colorado's election law, the one the my Democrats shoved through in 2013 and got the Dem governor, Hickenlooper to sign?
R: No, talk to me.
WM: Heh! You're gonna love this one. First it abolishes the usual polling place and lets the primates mail in ballots. And it allows same day registration without any kind of ID...in other, words, you can go in and register as, say, somebody you know who moved away and you're in, badda bing!
R: That's insane.
WM: Hee hee, it's get's even better. If somebody register online a few days before, no primate even needs to show up to register or vote. You don't even have to be in Colorado! You just siddown at the computer and create yourself a voter and you get your ballot. And once that ballot is cast, the same day registration votes aren't kept separate, they're mixed in with the others and there's no way to separate 'em out if they find out later the ballot or the voter was bogus. The vote just gets counted. Other states with same day keep those votes separate until they verify they're legit, but not Colorado!
But wait, there's more. The law stopped county clerks from reviewing new voter registrations like they used to, and since every Colorado voter on the rolls has to receive a mail ballot, ballots are gonna be mailed to everybody! Convicted felons, people who don't ever vote, primates with Alzheimer's, primates who don't live in Colorado any more...oh and did I mention the law makes it way difficult if not impossible to remove names from the voting rolls? Or that ACORN types called “ballot harvesters” are allowed to go door-to-door and collect ballots with no oversight ..and they get paid based on the number of ballots they collect! How many Gardner votes you wanna bet get tossed in the garbage?
R: It's voter fraud heaven.
WM: You got it! Unless Gardner gets real lucky and wins by a real big margin, he's toast, no matter how unpopular Udall is.
R: Don't you feel bad about that kind of fraud?
WM: Nope.If the ReThugs wanna remain the stupid party, that's their problem.
R: Ummphh..let's move on.
WM: OK, what's left..Alaska and Kansas. OK, I'll give the repugs Alaska. Begich screwed up big time with his campaign and that bogus ad, and I see Sullivan taking it 5-2. Although I'll take anybody's shekels who wants to bet on Begich at 5 to 1 against.
Kansas is too close to call, which may mean the Dems -.and let's be honest, Orman's one of us, a Dem- have to see what they can do in Kansas City about putting together a little something to put him over the line.
R: More voter fraud.
WM: Hee hee, yup yup yup! So to sum it all up, I see the rethugs picking up 5 seats for sure, with possible shots at Iowa and Louisiana.. and maybe Colorado if they're really.lucky.
Kansas is too close to call. yet, but if it goes Dem, the rethugs gotta pick up two out of those three 'maybe' seats, and I don't see 'em doing it. So we're maybe looking at a 50-50 senate.
R: That's awful.The worse thing is that your track record on predicting this stuff is too good to ignore
WM: That's politics. Look, one thing about we Democrats is that we understand that the game is all about power, and that means getting elected. You climb to the top of the tree however you gotta do it,and the rest follows naturally.
R: OK, but a fifty fifty senate means...
WM: Yeah, we'll be seeing and hearing a lot of this guy..comedy gold!
R: I still remember when you interviewed John Edwards back in 2008 and said Obama would pick 'a heavyweight like Biden...for gravitas' as his running mate. I thought both of you were going to pass out from laughing. Except the joke's on the country.
WM: That's for sure.
R: And with that Weekend Monkey, Plus tard... we'll check back in with you soon for more state of the art commentary on the campaign from America's number one party animal.
WM: Always a pleasure.
Weekend Monkey was a Democratic candidate for president in 2008 and is JoshuaPundit's political Guru.