Weekend Monkey and Freedom Fighter handicap the elections

Well...this is a first. Normally Weekend Monkey and I do our own seperate things, as it were. But we got to to talking about the election over the weekend and decided that it would be entertaining to go over the coming midterm elections together...So we did, and it's all your fault:

ff: Hello, Weekend Monkey! Ready to run through the electoral jungles?

WM: You betcha, Freedom Fighter! Let's lay one on the primates!

ff: I really wish you wouldn't use that term...

WM: ~Eeh!!~

ff: Let's talk about the Senate first. I pretty much see the GOP retaining control here, and there could be some major upsets.

WM: How you figure that, ff?


ff: Ok...for the Dems, I see pickups in Ohio, with Brown taking Mike Dewine's seat for the Dems. The last polls show Sherrod Brown pretty much ahead and not much momentum for DeWine..and I see another possible pickup for them in Rhode Island, where Sheldon Whitehouse and GOP incumbent Lincoln Chaffee share the same politics, but Rhode Island is pretty much a dem state.

WM: What about Pennsylvania, ff?

ff: Maybe I'm sentimental, but I can't count Rick Santorum out just yet.

WM: Get real, ff. He's toast! So are Burns in Montana n' Talent in Missouri!

ff: I dunno, Monkey.The last poll shows Santorum only down by about 8..

WM: Quit yer kiddin' ff. Santorum has one foot out the door and the other on a banana peel! I'll give you that Burns and Talent could be close. I'd have to say that the Dems pick up at least one of the two.

ff: Which one?

WM: Could be both, y'know. But if I had to pick one, I'd say Missouri.Talent is actually down a little, Burns has tied Tester, and he looks like he's closing.

ff: Did you see Peggy Noonan's piece on Santorum?

WM: Yeah, yeah...boo freaking hoo. I thought we were picking winners here!

ff: Ok,ok...so you see the Dems so far with a pickup of 4, 5 maximum.

WM: We didn't talk about Virginia or Tennesse yet.

ff: What about `em?

WM: I think the GOP keeps Tennesse and the Dems get Virginia. People like porn novels, and George Allen still sounds to me like he played football without a helmet once too often. And I resented the macacca comment..that guy wasn't intelligent looking enough to be one of my people, if you get my drift.










ff: OK, we're agreed on Tennessee, Corker takes it. But I think George Allen holds Virginia for the GOP, even though the way he's campaigned, you could be right about the helmet thing. It'll be close, but I still call it for Allen...he's been a senator for a long time, people know him, he's had plenty of time to spread around some favors, and Virginia is still a pretty conservative state.

WM: Hmmph! We'll see..anyway, that's minimum 5 pickups, maximum 6. So much for your theory of GOP control of the Senate, ff.

ff: We're not done yet Monkey. First of all, the odds on the Dems winning all six of those races is real slim...and you forgot to add in the other side of the equation, possible GOP pick ups.

WM: You really think that the Republicans are gonna win in Maryland or New Jersey? You seen the polls, ff?











ff: I sure have, Monkey. I call Maryland for Michael Steele at the least. And that's going to be major, because it's going to be a significant shattering of the Dem lockstep on the Black vote. I don't see Cardin winning if Steele gets even 20% of that part of the electorate, which he will after Cardin insulted the Black leadership. Kean is a possibility in New Jersey, but I see Menendez ekeing that out because of the Dem ward machines in Newark and a few other places. And don't forget, Lieberman is sure to take Connecticutt as an independent, and he's going to have a few scores to settle back in Washington with his former party. So even if you're right and the Dems take all six seats -which you're not- that brings it down to 4, maximum. And if Burns or Talent win and Allen wins in Virginia, that brings it down to two, maximum.

WM: I say the Dems win at least five, and hang on to Maryland...what have you been drinking?

ff: Bushmill's. Want some? Here.

WM: Smoooo-oooth! I just added a little banana extract and wowie!

ff: I'm not giving you any more if you're just going to pollute it, Weekend Monkey.This isn't the usual cheap rotgut you favor.

WM: Ok, ok, straight it is...quit yer crabbin'.

ff: And anyway, here's a little piece of info for you, Monkey. There are at least three more Dem incumbent Senators that could flip after the election.

WM: Huh?

ff: There are 3 dem senators - Akaka and Inoyue in Hawaii and Senator KKK Byrd in West Virginia who are in their mid-eighties plus and could go to that big caucus in the sky anytime or be otherwise incapacitated before their terms are through..and both Hawaii and West Virginia have Republican governers who would appoint their successors.

WM: Whooo! That could get interesting! But we're not talking about that now, are we? Let's make it easy for the primates and summarize...

ff: OK -

Weekend Monkey's picks:
-----------------
Ohio- DeWine gets cellared
Pennsylvania- Casey all the way
New Jersey - Menendez makes Kean sleep with the fishes
Maryland - Steele gets melted
Rhode Island-Close, but Dem all the way
Virginia - Macaca boy hits the showers
Missouri - Talent ain't an asset
Tennessee - ok, the GOP wins this one
Montana...toss up but leaning Democrat.

Net gain to the Dems + 6 in the Senate

FF's Picks
-----------------
Ohio - Brown takes it
Pennsylvania - Looks like it's over, but it will be closer than people think and could be an upset.
New Jersey - the Dem big city Machine delivers another one.
Maryland -the Man of Steele triumphs
Virginia - George Allen wins, by a whisker
Tennesee - Welcome to Washington, Senator Corker
Montana - Burns by a whisker
Missouri - too close to call, but leaning towards Talent
Rhode Island - another one that's too close to call, but I think it's leaning Dem

Net Gain to the Dems +3 in the Senate maximum, more likely +2.


WM: OK, ff..let's talk about the House. I gotta admit, I was all set to see the Dems pick up at least 25-35 seats until this last week.

ff: Yeah, there appears to be a bit of a surge for the GOP at the last minute. Think Kerry had anything to do with that?

WM: Maybe. Did you see what Rahm Emanuel had to say earlier today about being worried about the numbers?








ff: Yeah, sounds like his butt is sweating buttermilk. He knows something. What's your call, Weekend Monkey?

WM: I still see the dems taking control of the House and picking up around twenty five seats, max. A week ago I would have had them taking at least 35 or more.

ff: Why the change?

WM: Well, Kerry, plus a lot of the GOP base decided to hold their nose and vote.

ff: I gotta go with you on that, Monkey..I think a lot of people took a good long look at who's going to be running the House if the Dems take over and got a wake up call. Plus, I think the dems started believing their own PR and got lazy..

WM: OK, ff, numbers time! Put up or shut up!

ff: All right, already! Boy, you get surly when you're drinking...the way I see things there's a max of 19 seats net in play for a dem turnover, including seats that just lean that way, and some of those, like Indiana-2, where Chocola has surged and New Mexico-1, where Heather Wilson remains competitive could go either way. And there are a couple of seats that could be GOP pickups like Georgia-3 and Georgia-12. I see the Dems getting no more than 19 seats and possibly as little as 12.

WM: No way,ff. They're getting control of the House. At least 20-25 seats.

ff: Maybe, Monkey, but I don't see it that way. And they're not anywhere near as confident as they were just last week...and remember what happened two years ago, when they were priming themselves up for a great victory and got bitchslapped? I could seriously see them gaining less than the 15 seats they need.

Another thing..a lot of the Dems running for the House and even the Senate this year are a bit more conservative than the party's leadership. They call them `bluedog' Democrats. So even if you're right, President Bush may likely find a lot of allies on the other side of the aisle. Of course, if they miss out on winning both the House and the Senate you're gonna see serious psychodrama.

WM: You got that right, ff, hee hee hee! I was just thinking of Howie Dean in a straight jacket. What do the bookies say, by the way?










ff: At last, we get to the nitty gritty. Tradesports puts the likelyhood of the GOP keeping the senate at 7.5 in 10 and the odds on the Dems taking the House are exactly the reverse. Vegas is about the same on the Senate, but only gives the Dems a 6 in 10 to take the House. So I guess we'll see.

WM: That we will.

ff: By the way, Weekend Monkey, you voting Democrat this year?

WM: In the middle of a war, ff? I'm a monkey, not a jackass.

ff: And with that little nugget, we better sign off.

WM: Later, primates. I gotta figure out how I'm gonna spend my winnings after ff's predictions go down in flames!