Wednesday, June 27, 2012

What's Really Going To Happen On ObamaCare Tomorrow

I should be more jaded by now, but I have to admit to being amused by the dinosaur media's coverage of the day before the big day, as the usual suspects try to read the tea leaves and spin this with abandon.

Just look at these sample headlines:

From CNN:Supreme Court decision on polarizing health care law looms

Isn't it amusing that no one in the dinosaur media described the law as 'polarizing' when it was literally shoved through Congress? And given the polls that show most Americans view ObamaCare about the same way they view black widow spiders or burst pipes, wouldn't it be more accurate to describe the law as 'unpopular'?

From The Politico's always predictable Jake Sherman: GOP Plan For 'ObamaCare' Nothing

Yes, those Evil Republicans are going to let even some of the more popular parts of ObamaCare just die, chuckling at the whimpering of sick little children.

Ditto from Greg Sargeant, the go to guy whenever the Soros media wants its talking points aired:One more time: The GOP wouldn’t replace Obamacare with anything

From The Washington Post: On health care, the public doesn’t like its options

It's all the fault of our polarized politics. If only there were more 'moderate' Republicans who would reliably do whatever Democrats want!

And plenty more, ad absurdum.

I wouldn't presume to predict what the Supreme Court will actually do, although I will say that if they strike down the individual mandate,(InTrade has it as a 73% chance) I'd guess the rest of ObamaCare will likely go with it because (A) there's no mechanism to fund the monstrosity otherwise and (b) none of the justices really wanted to go through a 2700 page bill to determine what parts might be salvageable, especially with no funding mechanism attached.

However, I can accurately predict exactly what will happen after the decision.

If the Court only strikes down the individual mandate, expect the media to spin it as a victory for Obama because 'most of the law survived intact'. President Obama will campaign against 'those white guys and that Uncle Tom who are trying to move America backwards and take away your healthcare' and tell his fans that he needs a second term to fix healthcare and give it back to them.

If the Court strikes down the entire bill, look for an angst ridden meltdown and an outcry of mind bending rage from the dinosaur media and their Leftist pundits. The usual tropes of class warfare, evil Republicans and calls to reform the Supreme Court to kick justices off the bench after a set term as opposed to life time appointments will be heard. The press will spin it as a victory for Obama because the ruling has 'energized Democrats' and 'given President Obama his groove back' with a brand new campaign issue to run on...whether that's actually true or not.

If the Court upholds ObamaCare
, look for the kind of chest pounding triumphalism and mockery normally emanating from ten-year-olds, coming from the usual suspects. The Supreme Court will be lionized in the dinosaur media as 'guardians of the people's rights' and an institution that shouldn't be tampered with in any way. Any justices that voted to strike down ObamaCare, no matter how reasoned their demeanor and arguments will be described as 'angry', 'out of touch', 'rigid', and 'ultraconservative'.

The press will spin it as a victory for Obama, who has 'now seen his signature achievement validated' and now has 'gotten his groove back' in his re-election campaign because of this 'historic win.'

Republicans will be described as 'dispirited', 'angry' and 'frustrated'. In reality,after a day or so of reflection, the Court upholding ObamaCare would almost certainly galvanize the American people,particularly the Tea Party, to organize and work to take back Congress and the White House as ObamaCare's repeal becomes an even bigger issue than it was before.

Unlike a lot of what you're reading or hearing, you can definitely count on my predictions coming true.

Oh, yes..for those of you whom want to read a decent, balanced analysis of how the whole thing might play out, I recommend Sean Trende's piece here.

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