Thursday, June 07, 2012

Great Minds Think Alike - Sean Trende Crunches The Numbers On 'Pro-Obama' Wisconsin Exit Polls

You'll remember that I was fairly disdainful yesterday of the media spin on exit polls showing Obama with a seven point lead over Romney in a general election matchup.

In a column today, numbers guy Sean Trende, Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics and the author of the excellent The Lost Majority: Why the Future of Government Is Up for Grabs - and Who Will Take It crunches the numbers and comes up with the same conclusion.

Wisconsin is definitely in play.

And according to Democrat Governor Ed Rendell, so is Pennsylvania, which he sees as being dependent on moderate voters in the four Philadelphia suburban counties:

I tell people Governor Romney's biggest liability in the primaries was that people really didn't believe he was a conservative. His biggest asset in the general election is people really don't believe he is a conservative. So will those moderate Republicans, conservative Democrats, independents in the Philadelphia suburbs vote for him because he is really a moderate who is going to govern in a moderate fashion? I don't know. {...}

That didn't exactly answer the question. So it was asked again. "So bottom line, is Pennsylvania is in play?"

"Oh, it is definitely in play," Rendell replied. He went on about how bizarre it was to read reports that Republicans weren't making investments in the state. "Can't be right. I mean why would you do that? And why would you make that judgment now?"

"I think it is definitely in play," he said again. "I said from the beginning, Mitt Romney is the only candidate who had a chance to do well enough in the Philadelphia suburbs to carry the state. If I had to bet, I would bet he won't, because the president is going to do very well in the debate."

Considering that the last time President Obama actually debated with anyone it was with Senator John McCain, I'm not sure I'd make that bet myself. I'd say it's more likely dependent on turnout, how well the economy does between now and November and how many 'votes' the Democrats can manufacture in Philly.

Keep in mind that Governor Rendell knows his own state quite well and is mainly concerned with covering his own backside first as opposed to covering Obama's. As such, he needs to walk a line between being a loyal party man and not being too closely aligned with what could end up being a sinking ship.

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