What are Europe's options?

I have long maintained that Europe will either have a civil war or go mostly Islamic.

Middle East Scholar Daniel Pipes has a new piece, published in The National Interest in which he examines exactly that topic - what Europe's options in the future might be.

He narrows them down to three - Muslim rule, Muslim expulsion, or Muslim integration.

In his first scenario, Professor Pipes examines the demographic trends in Europe (rather like Mark Steyn) and concludes that, given diminished European fertility rates, and aging population in need of immigration that is mostly not reproducing itself and disdain for its own culture as compared to Muslim fervor, the possibilty of `Eurabia' definitely exists.

In his second scenario, Pipes examines the idea of the European expelling its Muslims almost wholesale, quoting author Ralph Peters who feels that Europe's Muslims are living on borrowed time, and authoress Claire Berlinski, who sees the historic order of Europe reasserting itself. Pipes, in this scenario, sees:

...indigenous Europeans—who still constitute 95 percent of the population—waking up one day and asserting themselves. “Basta!” they will say and reclaim their historic order. This is not so remote; some Europeans, while scarce in the elite, loudly protest the changes already underway.

Pipes goes on to discuss the trend towards the rise of nativist parties in Europe and their growing strength, and makes the point that, contrary to Peters assessment, the expulsion of Muslims from Europe will be largely peaceful and legal, at least on the non-Muslim side.

In the third scenario, Pipes examines the possibility of peaceful integration, something by his own admission he feels is unlikely. I concur - historically, Islam does not play nicely with others.

However, with all respect for Dr. Pipe's scholarship, I believe he leaves a few things out of the equation.

While some parts of Europe may very well attempt to peacefully expel Muslim immigrants, many of the ruling Socialist/Labor coalitions are dependent on Muslim votes to retain power (Britain's Labour Party is a fine example) and will fight any expulsion tooth and nail. Also, Europe's jihadis, like the jihadis here are adept at using the existing civil rights laws as a weapon to subvert and destroy the very societies that granted Muslims equal rights under the law in the first place.

At the same time,any attempt to expel Muslim populations from Europe, or even to take away their social welfare benefits can expect to be met with violent street protest and domestic terrorism.

Another thing to consider is the rage of the Muslim ummah overseas. Imagine the reaction, for example, of a nuclear armed Iran with missiles that can hit Europe...or a nuclear armed Pakistan faced with having to reabsorb thousands of Pakistanis from Britain. At the very least, I would expect that Europe's domestic Muslims would receive arms and training from their fellow jihadis overseas, something that is already happening in France and elsewhere if my sources are correct.

Seldom mentioned in these discussions is the vested interest Islamic rulers have in reducing the pressure on their own failed societies via continued emigration of part of their population to the west.

In other words, I don't see Professor Pipes `peaceful, legal expulsion' happening.

So where does this leave us? To me, the ultimate answer to this question depends on a number of factors.

First and foremost of these factors is when the great blowup happens. Things will be different say, a decade or so from now than they will be in 3-5 years.

The second factor to consider is what other players outside the region may be involved. I mentioned Iran and Pakistan, but Russia, which has aligned itself with the Muslim world and is becoming increasingly Islamic may also be a factor. Western Europe also appears to be committing the supreme folly of pressuring for the marginalization of Israel ( which guards NATO's southern flank) and the disengagement of US forces from Western Europe.

The third factor varies by country according to its attitude towards itself, the level of Islamic population, the degree of dhimmitude, and the nature of the leadership in place.

Dr. Pipes wisely ends his piece by saying that it's too soon to tell and things are in flux, and he's correct. But I'll hazard a few random predictions.

Assuming Iran is not neutralized and present trends continue, I predict increasing Muslim unrest and frequent domestic terrorism over the next 3-5 years. While the total percentage of the Muslim population in Europe as a whole is still relatively small, that population is increasingly concentrated in major European cities, and it's not hard to predict a situation similar to what exists today in France, where whole areas are under de facto sharia law and are essentially no-go areas for the police and for most non-Muslims.

In places like that, you will see increased violence between native Europeans and the Muslim umma....what amounts to civil war. As I've said before, Islam does not play nicely with others, generally speaking, and as crime and terrorism directed towards non-Muslim Europeans increases, the push back by native Europeans will intensify.

Politics will also play a major part in how things go. In those countries where the Left/Labor/Socialist blocs continue to hold on to power with the aid of Muslim votes, there will be more turmoil, unrest and terrorism as opposed to countries with leadership independent of those votes.

Eventually,if Europe's elites are unwilling to deal with the situation, we will see a number of mini-Bosnias in Western Europe, especially if the nativist parties begin arming themselves and forming militias.

In my article, It is time for Jews to think about leaving Western Europe I speculated on exactly this kind of outcome.

As for those Europeans that still care about preserving their freedom and their culture, forewarned is forearmed.