Tuesday, March 06, 2007

What are Europe's options?

I have long maintained that Europe will either have a civil war or go mostly Islamic.

Middle East Scholar Daniel Pipes has a new piece, published in The National Interest in which he examines exactly that topic - what Europe's options in the future might be.

He narrows them down to three - Muslim rule, Muslim expulsion, or Muslim integration.

In his first scenario, Professor Pipes examines the demographic trends in Europe (rather like Mark Steyn) and concludes that, given diminished European fertility rates, and aging population in need of immigration that is mostly not reproducing itself and disdain for its own culture as compared to Muslim fervor, the possibilty of `Eurabia' definitely exists.

In his second scenario, Pipes examines the idea of the European expelling its Muslims almost wholesale, quoting author Ralph Peters who feels that Europe's Muslims are living on borrowed time, and authoress Claire Berlinski, who sees the historic order of Europe reasserting itself. Pipes, in this scenario, sees:
...indigenous Europeans—who still constitute 95 percent of the population—waking up one day and asserting themselves. “Basta!” they will say and reclaim their historic order. This is not so remote; some Europeans, while scarce in the elite, loudly protest the changes already underway.
Pipes goes on to discuss the trend towards the rise of nativist parties in Europe and their growing strength, and makes the point that, contrary to Peters assessment, the expulsion of Muslims from Europe will be largely peaceful and legal, at least on the non-Muslim side.

In the third scenario, Pipes examines the possibility of peaceful integration, something by his own admission he feels is unlikely. I concur - historically, Islam does not play nicely with others.

However, with all respect for Dr. Pipe's scholarship, I believe he leaves a few things out of the equation.

While some parts of Europe may very well attempt to peacefully expel Muslim immigrants, many of the ruling Socialist/Labor coalitions are dependent on Muslim votes to retain power (Britain's Labour Party is a fine example) and will fight any expulsion tooth and nail. Also, Europe's jihadis, like the jihadis here are adept at using the existing civil rights laws as a weapon to subvert and destroy the very societies that granted Muslims equal rights under the law in the first place.

At the same time,any attempt to expel Muslim populations from Europe, or even to take away their social welfare benefits can expect to be met with violent street protest and domestic terrorism.

Another thing to consider is the rage of the Muslim ummah overseas. Imagine the reaction, for example, of a nuclear armed Iran with missiles that can hit Europe...or a nuclear armed Pakistan faced with having to reabsorb thousands of Pakistanis from Britain. At the very least, I would expect that Europe's domestic Muslims would receive arms and training from their fellow jihadis overseas, something that is already happening in France and elsewhere if my sources are correct.

Seldom mentioned in these discussions is the vested interest Islamic rulers have in reducing the pressure on their own failed societies via continued emigration of part of their population to the west.

In other words, I don't see Professor Pipes `peaceful, legal expulsion' happening.

So where does this leave us? To me, the ultimate answer to this question depends on a number of factors.

First and foremost of these factors is when the great blowup happens. Things will be different say, a decade or so from now than they will be in 3-5 years.

The second factor to consider is what other players outside the region may be involved. I mentioned Iran and Pakistan, but Russia, which has aligned itself with the Muslim world and is becoming increasingly Islamic may also be a factor. Western Europe also appears to be committing the supreme folly of pressuring for the marginalization of Israel ( which guards NATO's southern flank) and the disengagement of US forces from Western Europe.

The third factor varies by country according to its attitude towards itself, the level of Islamic population, the degree of dhimmitude, and the nature of the leadership in place.

Dr. Pipes wisely ends his piece by saying that it's too soon to tell and things are in flux, and he's correct. But I'll hazard a few random predictions.

Assuming Iran is not neutralized and present trends continue, I predict increasing Muslim unrest and frequent domestic terrorism over the next 3-5 years. While the total percentage of the Muslim population in Europe as a whole is still relatively small, that population is increasingly concentrated in major European cities, and it's not hard to predict a situation similar to what exists today in France, where whole areas are under de facto sharia law and are essentially no-go areas for the police and for most non-Muslims.

In places like that, you will see increased violence between native Europeans and the Muslim umma....what amounts to civil war. As I've said before, Islam does not play nicely with others, generally speaking, and as crime and terrorism directed towards non-Muslim Europeans increases, the push back by native Europeans will intensify.

Politics will also play a major part in how things go. In those countries where the Left/Labor/Socialist blocs continue to hold on to power with the aid of Muslim votes, there will be more turmoil, unrest and terrorism as opposed to countries with leadership independent of those votes.

Eventually,if Europe's elites are unwilling to deal with the situation, we will see a number of mini-Bosnias in Western Europe, especially if the nativist parties begin arming themselves and forming militias.

In my article, It is time for Jews to think about leaving Western Europe I speculated on exactly this kind of outcome.

As for those Europeans that still care about preserving their freedom and their culture, forewarned is forearmed.


Anonymous said...

You mentioned that it may be a mistake for Europeans to push for the exit of US forces in their countries. As far as I'm concerned, that should have been done in 1945. Yes, that's right. The europeans should have been left to rot in communist hell, all the way from Poland to Spain. With the exception of Great Britain, maybe. And that's a very big maybe.

Go to Paris, Berlin, or pretty much any other capital European city, and you will find that they say the same things about America that they say in Tehran, or Islamabad. These are, in my belief, the most ungrateful people on earth.

I think it's about time we let them sink or float on their own.

I also think that you're too skeptical about Islam. Maybe your skepticism applies to Europe, but I think the situation here is very different. I'm acquainted with quite a few Muslims, and I can name at least three out of the top of my head who are my friends. I don't think that they fit into the stereotype of scimitar-brandishing religious fanatics in the least.

Despite the problems we're having, I think they're doing an overall good job of integrating.

Freedom Fighter said...

Hi Nazar!
BTW, I'm glad you liked the radio show...thanks for the kind words.

I sympathize with your feelings, but you should keep two things in mind:

(1) we will have to defeat these people eventually and the less resources, population and territory they control the easier it will be and (2)some of these countries have nuclear weapons.

I would also say that the attitude towards America as expressed by the elites in European society is not quite as widespread as you think, IMO and much of it has to do with President Bush's personality.

In a recent poll in Britain by the Times, a majority of Brits (55%) said that Britain should pursue a more independent policy from America, but an even larger percentage (68%) said that the current Labour Government was not doing enough to fight Islamic terrorism.

As for Muslims, I too am friendly with a number of decent ones, and this site links to several Muslim sites that are well worth a visit.

The problem is only incidentally Islam as a religion, and more the problem of Islam as a political entity.

Since we have allowed the Saudis to pretty much purchase and control most of the mosques and madrassahs here in America (and elsewhere, it is the political, jihadi Islam that is being preached and ingrained in the younger generation...which is why Europe and the US, Australia and Canada are seeing increased terrorist activity from younger, native born Muslims.

That's a problem we're going to have to face here eventually, just as Europe will.


Anonymous said...

hi nazar,
imo you are viewing this issue through a 60 year old prism. circa late 1940s europe was still considered our/immigrant-america's home. we had just moved across the pond but our ancestors/relatives were still living there. it was also part of the containment strategy against the spread of russian influence.
with that said, i pretty much agree with your present day thinking.

as for the options process........
one of the scenarios i have always thought of is royal immigration. let's just say that king fuud decides to take the royals on an extended vacation aboard his nephew's yacht, which used to be the royal yacht, and can easily accomodate 5000 or so. they leave and don't go back. of course some of the princes would employ the philosophy of "milton" and stay in the sand box. but when king fuud leaves, he takes all his money with him. and to be close to his eternal friends the bushys he sets sail for america.
buys aspen and settles in.
what(?), you say he can't afford it.
the amount of influence this would generate would certainly change the dynamic of the M/E.
not to mention paris hilton's party habits.
as S/A would then no doubt be outright whabbiist(sp) the fate of ARAMCO would be uncertain at best, and that my friends would be the beginning of the new caliph. the persians would sail across the gulf to explore the new lands and claim what they wished. the princes left behind would do the bidding of their persian masters in order to make all seem well in the house of suds.
and what would be the fate of the joooos in this mental aerobic.....gosh, i haven't thought it through that far. let me see, persia is in charge. what would the fate of the joooos be with the saudi money in the USA and persia in charge in the M/E.
gee, nothing comes to mind at present. but i'll keep trying.

Anonymous said...

the title of this thread was europe's options.
.........never mind.

Ymarsakar said...

You might be interested in this European perspective. link

Your tone and subject matter bear a striking resemblance.