Forum:What's Behind The Downturn In The GOP's Chances To Take The Senate?

Every week on Monday morning , the Council and our invited guests weigh in at the Watcher's Forum, short takes on a major issue of the day, the culture, or daily living. This week's question:What's Behind The Downturn In The GOP's Chances To Take The Senate?


David Gerstman , Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion: FWIW, here's Charlie Cook.


The Independent Sentinel:I don't know that I believe there is that much of a downturn from what I've read. If there is a downturn, it's primarily because the Democrats are cleverly winning the media war with a lot of help from their biased allies in the mainstream media who paint Republicans as having no alternatives to anything. That's not true but it's perceptions that count.

The Media doesn't report the news, they create the news.

Obamacare is a disaster but they've managed to delay many of the worst aspects and have bailed out insurance companies so people don't know how bad it is or how much premiums will rise.

The public turned against the wars in the Middle East in part due to the media's biased reporting. We won those wars. Many more men and women have died in Afghanistan under Obama's watch than under Bush's but you won't read that in the mainstream media. You won't see their flag-draped coffins being carried into Andrew's Air Force base.

Democrats have been bailed out by their media allies.

Republicans have backed down on many issues but if they don't, public opinion turns hard-left against them. They don't have the bully pulpit.

Republicans have flaws but the biggest flaw lies with the deceit the opinion media is peddling.

 GrEaT sAtAn"S gIrLfRiEnD: As best understood - those Donkiecrats are like totally outspending the GOP on the Senate Race... :

Democratic fundraising has allowed the party and its allies to run more TV advertisements than Republicans in the first two weeks of September in nine of the 10 top Senate races this fall, according to an analysis of political spending by the nonpartisan Wesleyan Media Project.
The Democrats' edge in TV ads of late is due partly to a string of super PACs that have ramped up their efforts in the past two months. Since July 3, the largest super PACs aligned with Democrats have raised four times the money of pro-GOP super PACs, and have now spent $60 million to Republicans' $38 million, data compiled by The Wall Street Journal shows.

The Democratic push is being led by Senate Majority PAC, run by people affiliated with Mr. Reid, which has raised more money this election cycle than any super PAC aligned with either party: $33 million, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission. It has put $28 million so far into TV and digital advertising, with nearly half of that spent in the last 10 weeks. Its biggest donors include hedge-fund billionaire Tom Steyer, who has given $5 million since 2013, and former New York City Mayor Nanny Bloomberg who has given $2.5 million.

Super PACs can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money on behalf of or against candidates, but they can't donate directly to candidates.

To be sure, conservative outside groups plan to spend millions this fall to help Republican candidates. But the efforts of the Senate Majority PAC and other Democratic interest groups could represent the best chance that Democrats have of holding onto control of the Senate and keeping Mr. Reid in charge of the chamber.{...}

Republicans must pick up a net six seats to gain a Senate majority. Though polls show GOP candidates hold the lead in some of the closest races, Democrats have the financial advantage. The major Democratic Party committees—the Democratic National Committee and the party's House and Senate arms—have raised nearly $370 million, about 10% more than their GOP counterparts, according to data collected by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics.

Laura Rambeau Lee, Right Reason : The conservative Tea Party worked to support their candidates only to be trounced by the well funded Republican machine in the primaries. The downturn occurred after the primaries as conservatives became disheartened, disappointed, and disgusted by the attacks on conservatives from those within the party. Many are now focusing their efforts on getting local candidates elected.

In order to take the majority in the Senate, Republicans have to pick up six seats. Of those six it appears Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia are the only seats we can be confident the GOP will win. However, polls show voter dissatisfaction with President Obama’s job performance. People don’t believe they are better off today than they were in 2008. In addition, with increasing global instability in the world, we see social issues taking a back burner here at home. It’s kind of hard to talk about a war on women when women and children are being beheaded, crucified, and sold into slavery and forced marriages in the Middle East. Historically, conservatives and Republicans vote more in the mid-term elections than liberals and Democrats, so Republicans have a little better than 50/50 chance of taking the Senate, imho.

 JoshuaPundit: Can anyone tell me what the GOP's message is, except that they're not Barack Obama? They have none. That's because their real campaign is not against Democrats, but against conservatives and Tea Party candidates in their own party..and against their conservative base.

Let's not forget that it was Sarah Palin and Jim DeMint who were the driving force in the GOP landslide in 2010, not the party establishment which fought them tooth and nail. As a matter of fact the GOP establishment and Michael Steele's antics actually cost the Republicans two seats they could have won - Nevada and Colorado.

ObamaCare is still hugely unpopular. The GOP  isn't mentioning it, and Boehner just pushed through funding for it.  President Obama's planned amnesty is only supported by about 30% of the public, mainly in deep blue states with large illegal migrant populations like California.The only Republican senatorial candidate I've seen making it a major issue is Scoot Brown  in New Hampshire, and he's gone from being better than 12 points down in the polls behind the Democrat incumbent Jean Shaheen to being essentially neck and neck...and he has hardly any money compared to Shaheen's $11.2 million. Joanie Ernst in Iowa, Tom Tillis in North Carolina and Cory Gardner in Colorado  aren't getting any GOP maney either. But the checkbook's open for Mitch McConnell and Pat Roberts.

Benghazi, IRS-Gate, NSA-Gate, Fast And Furious? Sssshhh!

That's why the GOP is lagging behind. And now, they're touting the return of Obama's boyfriend Chris Christie, and talking about another Romney run for 2016 (OK, someone who could be a capable president but possibly the world's. worst.candidate. ever). Even I can't believe the GOP establishment is stupid enough not to understand what amnestia will  mean to both conservatives and the Republican Party, but then I never thought they would simply cede California to the Democrats without challenging the bogus redistricting scam,  or the state's lawless winking at wholesale illegal migration and voter fraud.

This should be a Reagan -style conservative revolution. It shouldn't even be close. Basta. Enough. Either conservatives need to take over the GOP or it's divorce time.

The Right Planet: I would suspect it has something to do with the abysmal treatment the GOP leadership and the RNC has shown toward its base and the TEA Party, not to mention the fact that the current GOP leadership has caved on almost every issue--funding Obamacare, arming so-called Syrian "rebels," pushing amnesty, etc.

Doug Ross recently posted, "From Mitch McConnell's vow to 'crush the Tea Party' all the way to rampant vote fraud in Mississippi, the Reince Priebus- and Karl Rove-led band of numbskulls have wagered that corrupting the primary process, demonizing the conservative activist base, and using borderline criminal tactics would unify the party."

There's no excuse for all this, in my opinion; it's electoral suicide. And one has to question whether it's intentional or not. It seems that anyone who just wants the government to get its house in order--meaning: reduce spending, cut taxes, strong defense, limited government, defend individual liberties, etc.--is treated worse than a terrorist by not only the Democrats but by certain members of the GOP as well.

Writing about this makes me so furious I'll have to end my response here.


Bookworm Room: This is an easy one: The GOP itself is behind the downturn. Here in my native state, I have it on the best authority that the establishment GOP elected to give several thousand dollars to a candidate who cannot possibly win, while giving $200 to a candidate who, if properly funded, could definitely win. Apparently the GOP decided that it was better to send good money after bad than to give the necessary help to someone who could be a sure thing. Whatever they're drinking at GOP headquarters is some seriously bad stuff.

All of America there are similar stories: the establishment sides with the Washington version of conservativism, which is simply a slower growing version of big government, complete with cronyism and a devotion to the cheap labor promised by amnesty. Meanwhile, back in the real world, real people are drowning under government controls, mandates, and taxes, and they're seeing illegal aliens sweep up the few jobs in our terrible economy. They can't stand what the Democrats have done to them, but they won't vote for a stale, flat-footed, tin-eared, self-serving GOP.

When Americans are exposed to true conservative ideas advocated by people who have solid support and are not allowed to be destroyed by an MSM portraying them as whackadoodles, they win, if not every time, at least a lot of the time. Two things don't win: Stale, corrupt, expensive GOPism and conservative extremists who are able to get enough fringe support to manage without GOP support.

The Glittering Eye: Most of the minor upticks and downticks are statistical anomalies. As the actual election nears, pollsters concentrate more on likely voters than on registered voters or other larger groups of people who probably won't vote. That can cause some surprising apparent changes, too.

All this by way of saying that early polls probably exaggerated Republican voting strength in some areas. It's always been close and the nearer the election comes the more opinion polls are likely to reflect that.


  Well, there you have it.

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