Monday, September 09, 2013

Peacemaker: Putin Engineers Deal To Avert Strike On Syria


Russian President Vladimir Putin came out with a surprise move today that could avert a U.S. strike on Syria.

He proposed that the Assad regime turn over all of its chemical weapons to international control and agree to  their subsequent destruction, as well as having Syria sign the international treaties prohibiting the use of chemical weapons, in exchange for a U.S. guarantee to forgo any action against the Assad regime and sent Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to deliver the message.

The Syrians ( according to Russia Today, always a somewhat questionable source) are amenable. 

“Syrian Arab Republic welcomes Russia’s initiative, based on the Syrian’s government care about the lives of our people and security of our country,” Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem said in response.

This is actually a win win for everyone if it works out. Putin gets credit from all sides for actually coming up with a workable solution that preserves Russia's prerogatives in Syria. Our clueless president gets the opportunity to save face and avoid a major political defeat over an unpopular and illegal war, although he will, of course, still claim credit and do some chest thumping about how he, Barack Obama made it all happen. Of course.

The Syrians get the opportunity of divesting themselves of weaponry that is difficult for them to use anyway in the current climate, any further incidents can be placed at the insurgent's doorstep, and the status quo, which has Assad defeating the insurgents remains in place.

And the rest of us, ideally, see some dangerous weapons removed from circulation.

Did you ever think that just maybe, that Nobel Peace Prize got awarded to the wrong person?


Ted said...

This deal will only work if it's overseen by the UN. Anyone who expects a strong ally of Syria to act in good faith here is foolish and/or naive.

Ted said...

...Not to mention that this proposal was originally Secretary Kerry's, so the fact that Russia is taking him up on it shows that Russia sees a strike on Syria as likely, regardless of congressional approval.

Anonymous said...

This wasn't Putins idea. It was Kerry's. I'm not sure why you're saying otherwise.

Semper Fi said...

'Kerry's idea' - Bullshit. All Lurch did was to flap his gums and say he would give Assad another week to give up his chemical weapons. He had no ideas on a framework to do so or any real proposal. In fact, a few hours later, Lurch had the State department walking this back, saying it was just rhetoric and was just Lurch yakking about something that wasn't going to happen.

It was Putin who actually created a serious, detailed offer and an actual framework for the deal with the Syrians.

Lurch's idea? Has he actually ever had one? I swear, you leftards will stretch the truth out of shape until it snaps.

Tantric Logic said...

Kerry probably got his pee pee whacked by Obama for opening his mouth out of turn. That's why he did a quickie about face.

As for a strike, I doubt Obama had the votes. Whether he was planning on doing this illegally anyway to help his Muslim Brotherhood friends is another question.

Crazy Bald Guy said...

It would be amusing if someday they gave Putin a Peace Prize just to spite Obama, especially when you consider Obama was only awarded his Peace Prize as a way of spiting Bush.

B.Poster said...

Actually the first person to suggest this type of transaction where Russia agrees to secure Assad's chemical weapons was a news reporter. In fact, as I recall he was a "conservative" reporter somewhat versed in "real politic." Certainly the individual in question was no fan of Mr. Obama.

In any event, it really does not matter who gets the credit for this. As of now, since it seems other sources are reporting this, there may be some validity to this. As of right now, it appears America may be about to avoid a war with Russia, China, Iran, and their allies. Additionally, Mr. Obama and America get a graceful step down from a most ridiculous position that was taken. That's what matter.

Who gets to take credit for it is of only minimal importance. Whoever does take the "credit" should refrain from rubbing the proverbial noses of the other party in it otherwise the entire thing could be undone as humans tend not to like being humiliated!!

With all of this said this whole thing seems strange. The biggest winner out of this would appear to be America. The Americans and Mr. Obama get to avoid a major war they can't possibly win and get to save face while doing it!! Furthermore Mr. Obama likely gets to avoid impeachment for his ridiculous position and rhetoric on Syria.

Why would Mr. Putin throw an assist to Mr. Obama here especially when he has all the good cards? It's been speculated, that Mr. Putin feared an American strike on Syria. This is arguably the most ridiculous notion I've ever heard. An American military action against Syria would increase instability in the middle east, drive up the price of oil even further, and result in a major military defeat for the US once Russia, China, the other BRICS, and Iran got in on the side of Syria. There are all very good for Russia. As such, there is no sound reason for Mr. Putin to help America or Mr. Obama here.

That is UNLESS Mr. Obama and the US government offered Mr. Putin something he and Russia simply could not refuse. I can think of a few thing that it could be. 1.)Russia was given the launch codes to the US nuclear arsenal along with access to disable them at any time. This would make any kind of counter nuclear attack against Russia impossible. 2.)Russia may have gotten access to America's drone technology along with the ability to control these drones to block them from use at any time. 3.)Perhaps the Russians got access to America's stealth technology that they do not seem to have. 4.) Maybe the Russians received a pledge from the Americans not to get involved as Russia reclaims the territory of the USSR. (They've almost done this any way so 4 does not seem likely but could be plausible.) If I'm Mr. Putin, perhaps I deal if any of the above are offered to me. In any event, if these reports are true, America would have had to pay a VERY high price to ensure cooperation here.

Why would Mr. Assad agree to give up his chemical weapons when we aren't even sure who actually used them? If he gives up his chemical weapons but the rebels don't then he's defenseless. Such an idea would be insane. Maybe he received assurances from the Russians on help with the rebels. After all the Russians likely allowed this to continue so long so as to embarrass the Americans.

Finally, if the "international community" or the UN oversees this, there is no guarantee these weapons will actually be removed. Neither group likes America very much and would jump at the chance to harm it. As such, expect them to simply rubber stamp whatever the Russians or Mr. Assad tell them to do.

Russia agreeing to help America falls into the to good to be true category. As such, it probably isn't unless the price was EXTREMELY high to secure such assistance.