Wednesday, February 01, 2012

Gallup State Approval Numbers Predict An Obama Loss

The above is an interesting one from the latest Gallup Poll( via memeorandum). It's based on Gallup's annual state-by-state presidential approval numbers for 2011, and shows what the 2012 election would look like if President Obama carries only those states where he had a net positive approval rating in 2011 (e.g. Michigan where he is up 48 percent to 44 percent).

The generic GOP candidate beats him 323 electoral votes to 215.

Now, a projection of this kind has its faults. For one thing, 2011 is not 2012, and this map shows a generic Republican rather than a specific candidate, which would change the map considerably.So would turnout factors

Allowing for that, all things being equal my personal caveats would be as follows:

  • I would expect President to take Oregon and either Pennsylvania or Ohio. That would add 25-27 electoral votes to the Democrat total - still far short of 270.As a matter of fact, even taking Oregon and both Ohio and Pennsylvania still leave the president 10 electoral votes shy of the magic number

  • Assuming the above unlikely scenario - that President Obama takes all of the Blue states above plus Oregon, Ohio and Pennsylvania - to win, he'd need at least two of the following states: Colorado,Nevada, Iowa or New Mexico.The odds are far better that the president would take Oregon, either Ohio or Pennsylvania and two of the four states I just mentioned...which would still leave him shy of 270.

  • Depending on the candidate, it's very possible that Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan will be in play for the GOP. Mitt Romney, for instance, would be tough to beat in Michigan and possibly Wisconsin.

  • I wouldn't dream of making a personal projection this far out,but this doesn't look good for the White House.

    1 comment:

    louielouie said...

    The generic GOP candidate beats him 323 electoral votes to 215.

    ok. so ff if mathematically challenged. the GOP candidate gets 323 votes. hussein gets 352 votes.
    you say that can't happen?
    you think?
    who's gonna call him on it?
    who's gonna call him on it?
    take him to the supreme court?
    you don't have standing.
    no one has standing.
    who's gonna call him on it?

    the map itself confirms what john edwards said about the two americas. look at all that red area. where is the blue?
    i don't see hussein losing ohio or pennsylvania. what does all that blue have in common? could it be heavily unionized labor? just a guess.