Wednesday, February 08, 2012

New Life For Santorum As He Sweeps primaries

http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/u99Lf3v9gGvG1yJuhRqiQw--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9aW5zZXQ7aD0yODg7cT04NTt3PTUxMg--/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/us.news.abcnews.otus/ap_santorum_colorado_tk_120204_wmain.jpg

Senator Rick Santorum's campaign got a major boost in last night's primaries and caucuses,winning decisively in in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri.

In Minnesota's caucuses, Santorum won with 45 percent of the vote. Congressman Ron Paul was in second place with 27 percent and Mitt Romney was third at 17 percent.

Santorum beat Romney by 30 percentage points in Missouri, 55 percent to 25 percent. That vote was a so-called 'beauty contest', a non-binding primary with no delegates at stake, but it had value as an indicator of support in a battleground state.

In the Colorado caucuses, Santorum won by 5 percentage points over Romney, 40 percent to 35 percent.

Several things can be drawn from this.

First, the attacks on Romney are likely having an effect. Second, Rick Santorum is now the 'anti-Romney' in the GOP race, and Newt Gingrich is likely on his way out unless something changes.And third, while this shows Santorum has some momentum it also shows that his support may be somewhat limited. With the exception of Missouri,all of his wins have come in caucus states, and as I've explained before, the name of the game in caucus states is to get your foot soldiers out to the various caucuses in bad weather and dominate them. All three of last night's contests, by the way, had notably low turnouts.

In the other states with actual primaries ( New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina) Senator Santorum has not done well..and the results from Florida and South Carolina might indicate trouble for him in the South.

Nevertheless, it was a good night for Rick Santorum, and I'm hoping to see the race narrow down to him and Romney shortly.

No comments: