Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Iran: We Did Not Agree To Dismantle Anything

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif smiles and laughs as he speaks to the media in Geneva, on Nov. 24, 2013, after the interim nuclear deal was concluded.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif can well afford to laugh at how Iran once again fooled the gullible West.

In response to comments from Washington about supposed Iranian concessions, Zarif in an interview told CNN that the so-called interim agreement was nothing like the White House was describing it.

“The White House tries to portray it as basically a dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program,” he said, speaking from Davos, Switzerland, where he is attending the World Economic Forum. “If you find a single, a single word, that even closely resembles dismantling or could be defined as dismantling in the entire text, then I would take back my comment.”

Zarif repeated that “we are not dismantling any centrifuges, we’re not dismantling any equipment, we’re simply not producing, not enriching [uranium] over 5%.”

If you'll remember,that infamous White House fact sheet released last November According to a White House fact sheet released in November said specifically that the interim deal mandates that Iran halt all uranium enrichment beyond 5% and “dismantle the technical connections required to enrich above 5%.”

The reason the last part of that is important is that ramping up the centrifuges to weapons grade is no major deal provided the equipment is still there, hooked up and functioning. In fact thanks to the three month delay, not only have the Iranians been appeal to destroy evidence of what they were up to and conceal anything they don't want the West to see, they had 3 months to add to their stockpile of weapons grade uranium. The last time I checked, back in November, they had a stockpile of 440 pounds of 20 percent-enriched uranium, a form that can be quickly upgraded for weapons use. That's within spitting distance of what's needed for a nuclear weapon, and based on their previous track record the Iranians might well have a lot more than that hidden away.And there's no way of knowing how much they have after three months.


Here's the bottom line,just as I wrote last November when this craven appeasement first surfaced. The Iranians have given up virtually nothing in exchange for President Obama destroying the sanctions regime which took years to put in place,as well as legitimizing the present regime and throwing them a financial lifeline of billions of dollars.

We will live to regret it.


UCSPanther said...

"Peace in our time"

The ironically fateful word uttered right before one of the most destructive wars of the 20th century...

B.Poster said...

The problem with Iran is we've really never had many good options. Sanctions were never going to work. Even if they weren't eliminated officially, they were going to collapse any way as other nations, important groups, and individuals were simply going to ignore them and go around them. As such, there was no hope in keeping the sanctions in place even if Mr. Obama and the US government really wanted to.

Any attempt to enforce the sanctions, would have only led to war that the United States would have been alone and unable to win. In actuality, Me. Obama and the US government likely did not want to keep the sanctions in place, but even if they did there was no way they could have.

Additionally, it is a mistake to refer to the nations comprising Western Europe and the United States as the "West." Each of these nations have radically different cultures as well vastly different perceived and actual interests. As such, they cannot be expected to work together as some monolithic entity in any consistent manner.

For example, an analysis of the P5+1 nations who conduced the "negotiations" should make this clear. France and Germany are key members of the EU. The nations of the EU view the United States as a strategic competitor. As such, they are going to relish any opportunity to see the United States undermined and would very likely rejoice at an Iranian nuclear weapon. If Iran attacks the United States, they would view this favorably as it weakens their strategic competitor. As for Russia and China, it seems obvious that they are enemies of America. They'd also like to see Iranian nuclear weapons directed at America. As for Britain, it has traditionally offered some support for America, however, President Obama has undermined this relationship significantly. Additionally, they are much closer geographically to the nations of the EU and have more in common with them than America so even if not Mr. Obama's missteps here they'd likely side with the EU and would be pleased to see Iranian nuclear weapons directed at America.

In summary, there was and is no hope of keeping sanctions in place even if we wanted to. If Congress passes sanctions, they would be meaningless as the rest of the world would simply ignore them and go around them and any attempt to enforce them would only hasten America's decline as this would only hasten the inevitable loss of the dollar's role as world reserve currency and could lead to an unwinnable war. There is no viable military option as Russia, China, and the BRICS are going to intervene on behalf of the Iranians to stop it.

This is a truly depressing situation. I wish it weren't so but denying it won't change it. I see three possibilities. 1.)Israel possibly working with affected Arabs could launch a quick and decapitating military strike against Iran eliminating the threat before Iran or the BRICS can respond or Iran can send orders to terrorist proxies around the world to decapitate America and possibly Western Europe. Any US knowledge of or participation in this mission would only undermine it's chances for success as the US military lacks the training or intelligence capabilities necessary to carry this out and Iranian agents in the US government would instantly reveal this to the Iranian government. 2.)Try to get Russia to withdraw support from Iran by agreeing to withdraw all support from former Soviet or Eastern Bloc countries. In return Russia withdraws all support from Iran. 3.)Try to get China to withdraw support from Iran by agreeing to withdraw all military forces from the Pacific. In return, china withdraws all support for Iran. Options 2 and 3 might make Iran easier to deal with. As I correctly stated, no good options for this situation.

There is always prayer. From personal experience, this has worked for me when dealing with an impossible problem. Perhaps God will hear us here.