Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Olmert Prepares The Ground For The New Munich

According to al-Jazeera and a number of other sources, Israeli PM Ehud Olmert is sitting down with Palestinian capo del tutti Arafat II Mahmoud Abbas and eagerly preparing to mandate Israel's retreat to what Abba Eban famously referred to as the `Auschwitz Lines', Israel pre-1967 borders.Only what Olmert is reportedly offering Arafat II Abbas is even more suicidal.

This, of course is a preparation for the Bush Administration's `peace conference' in November, where US Secretary of State is expected to put the squeeze on Israel for huge concessions to the Palestinians.

According to what's been leaked, Olmert has offered the Palestinians 92% of Judea and Samaria (The West Bank). He's also willing to redivide Jerusalem, and in exchange for the small part of Judea and Samaria Israel wants to keep, has offered Abbas other territory now part of Israel, reportedly a corridor in the Negev to connect Gaza and the Palestinian West Bank.

A corridor like that would bisect Israel, cutting off Eilat and Israel's Red Sea access in the event of an Arab attack, and it would allow the Palestinians to ship fighters and heavy weapons from Gaza to say, Ramallah or East Jerusalem to attack Israel's densely populated central coast areas.

Even without the corridor in the Negev, Israel in its pre-1967 borders is a mere 9 miles wide at its narrowest point, and easily cut in two in the event of an invasion
by the Arabs from the Palestinian territories.

Even more ominous, Olmert has put his old pal Haim Ramon in charge of the negotiations with the Palestinians. Given his history,that's roughly equivalent to putting Cindy Sheehan in charge of the Iraq War.

Of course, the quid pro quo Olmert is asking for are guarantees that Abbas will refrain from relations with Hamas. Considering that Fatah has already channeled weapons and money to Hamas and is conducting negotiations with them for a sulwah (reconciliation) it's obvious that Abbas will wait to extract the maximum he can from Israel and the US before announcing that -surprise! - he and Hamas are back in bed together.

For that matter, Hamas already has a solid foothold in the West Bank.

This comes at a particularly poor time for Israel, as cuts in defense spending during the Olmert administration and morale and organizational problems in the IDF that relate to the politicization of the Army and Defense ministry over Gaza, the misuse of the Army in Lebanon and in evicting Jews from Amona and Hebron need to be addressed.

While the Oleg cartoon above shows Olmert handing the Hamas executioner the axe to kill him with, Olmert himself is likely to be safe in Paris or New York when that axe falls. He has proven himself more than willing to sell out his own country in order to save his skin, stay in power and avoid being dragged off to jail on corruption and bribery charges.

Olmert has close to zero public support, but is being kept in power through a coalition of politicians who are likewise afraid of being turned out of office if the country goes to new elections. The Israeli people had better insist on those elections and get themselves some leadership while they still have a country to call their own.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

This is dumb policy all the way around. These policies serve the interests of no one in Israel or America. They do not serve Israeli or American security interests nor do they serve American business interests.

If Israel is weakeend the buffer between the West and its enemies is weakened. This makes Western civilization harder to defend.

Also, I assume the IDF has a point in which Israel would resort to using its nuclear arsenal to defend itself. This plan would make it harder for Israel to defend itself using conventional means. This means it is more likely that Israel would have to used its nuclear arsenal.

The whole point of the GWOT was to prevent the spread and use of WMD. For Israel to surrender land to terrorists is counter productive to this goal.

Israel needs to say "no" to this plan. If American pressure is involved, the Israelis need to say "no."

Israel is a soverign country. If they go along with this, they put their allies in the US in the position of having to oppose the actions of a soverign ally. If they will say "no" and the American government pressures them, this will help their allies in the US defend Israel's position before the government and in the Americn media. As long as Israel goes along with these things, they cut the legs out from under their supporters.