Thursday, December 29, 2011

Rasmussen: Romney 45%, Obama 39%

Actually, as Scott Rasmussen points out, this isn't as much of an outlier as it seems:

A week ago, Romney trailed Obama 44% to 41%. The week before that, he held a slight 43% to 42% edge over the president. The two candidates have been essentially tied in regular surveys since January, but Romney remains the only GOP hopeful to lead Obama in more than one survey. Despite Romney’s current six-point lead, his latest level of support is in line with the 38% to 45% he has earned in matchups with the president this year. However, Obama’s 39% is a new low: Prior to this survey, his support has ranged from 40% to 46% in matchups with Romney.
Rasmussen is the latest poll with the highest sampling. However, Democrat polster PPP shows Romney leading Obama 47-45% as of December 18th, and the ABC/WAPO poll from the same period shows them tied.

The CNN poll from the 12/16-12/18 period show Obama leading Romney by 7 points, 52-45%,but I think I deconstructed CNN's polls for you pretty thoroughly quite recently.

It's early days, but we're probably seeing is a bit of a consensus coming together around Governor Romney as the GOP nominee and thus the anti-Obama.

I'll have more on this later.


B.Poster said...

The CNN poll that you deconstructed is the one that the media talks about most. This figures because it is the one most favorable to their proverbial horse in the race.

The goal seems to be to talk up Obama and if they can't do that to talk down the opposition. The ultimate goal seems to be demoralize the opposition so they don't vote or do the ground work for the Republican nominee that would be necessary to give him or her a fighting chance at victory. In line with trying to demoralize the opposition, they are trying to anger the opposition into saying things like Obama is "trying to destroy the country", Obama is a "Manchurian candidate", and things such as this. If the media can get so called moderates to think this represents these sentiments are indicative of the opposition, then they will be more likely to either not vote or vote to vote for Mr. Obama. In addition, if they can convince the voting public that such heated rhetoric is the prevailing view of the opposition, this would likely serve to further solidify the Democrat vote for Mr. Obama.

There are plenty of reasons based upon policy positions to oppose Mr. Obama. Over heated rhetoric about his trying to destroy the nation, being evil, or a Manchurian candidate are not necessary and will likely not be helpful and will only serve to undermine an opposition to Mr. Obama.

It is interesting to note that Mr. Romney holds a lead right now. We must understand that Mr. Romney has yet to be attacked in a significant way by the media or Mr. Obama's supporters. Of all candidates still in the race, Mr. Romney is the one least likely to beat Mr. Obama in a general election. He is the candidate the Democrats want. This is why he has not been attacked in a significant way yet. It appears the Republicans are going to play right into the Democrats hands. For the sake of the nation's survival prospects, lets hope the Republicans will still win in spite of this absolutely bone headed strategy they are persuing.

louielouie said...

The CNN poll that you deconstructed is the one that the media talks about most. This figures because it is the one most favorable to their proverbial horse in the race.

and that is the rub. that is what everyone is hearing. that and hussein and klebb are the most admired people since the cooling of the earth.

B.Poster said...


You are correct, however, there is hope for Mr. Obama's defeat. Given the utter dissarray and incompetence of the Republican party, Mr. Obama should have a lead of about 80-20 or something like this but he doesn't.