Tuesday, January 03, 2012

The Showdown In Iowa....

Today in Iowa, the Republican primary season officially kicks off, and what could be more fitting than a conversation with former Democrat presidential candidate Weekend Monkey, Joshuapundit's political guru.

WM: Hideyho, primates!

RM: Well, hello Weekend Monkey, nice to have you drop by. So, what's your take on the Hawkeye cauci?

WM: It's like a freakin' garage sale, Rob. One where everybody's kind of passed by the merchandise a few times too many and figures, 'well I gotta buy something.'

RM: I take it you're not too pleased with the candidates.

WM: Well, c'mon, I'm a Democrat. But from a sheer horse race aspect, I think the ReThugs might have done a little better.

RM: Yeah, I remember you weren't too impressed. Tell me, did anyone get a shot of you wrestling with a corndog ala' Michele Bachmann when you were running in Iowa back in '08?

: No way....let's just say I was shooting for a much larger target audience than a photo like that would have gotten me. Plus, she looks like she's a lot more talented at that kinda thing than me, hee hee hee hee!

OK, seriously...you gotta remember that Iowa is a weird little state to run in. There's what, only a coupla of highways in and out of the state?You meet with the primates in their living rooms and at the local Mickey D's for cryin' out loud and half the time they're people who won't even go out into the snow to vote in some dumb caucus instead of watching football or American Idol.Not unless they're really motivated.See, you're not really chasing votes, what you're really chasing is foot soldiers who will go out in the snow and dominate their local caucus.

That's why I was doing OK until I flamed out...I had all these college students shilling for me.

RM: Speaking of which, I do seem to remember a report that surfaced on you, a lamb and some Iowa State coed involved with the local Weekend Monkey for President club..

WM: I didn't do it, nobody saw me do it, you can't prove anything. No comment. Ever.

RM: Hmmm OK...back to Iowa, how would you analyze the various candidates and how they're likely to do?

WM: Well,let's deal with the marginals first, Rob. Like I said a long time ago, the race for the ReThug nomination is going to be between Romney the Robot and maybe one or two not Romneys. So far most of them have flamed out, while Romney the Robot has stuck with his programming. You had Michele Bachman right after she won the Ames Straw Poll, you had the Herman Cain clown show, you had Rick Perry, then you had Newty, who everybody knew was gonna self-destruct sooner or later.

Bachmann probably understood Iowa the best of any of them, since she's originally from here even though she had the smarts to leave. But she screwed up by simply getting involved with the wrong guys, something a lot of women can relate to I'm sure. First it was Ed Rollins, then it was that doofus she hired as campaign chair who ended up dumping her for Ron Paul. Plus, instead of keeping that corn dog in her mouth she kept putting her foot in it, hee hee! I don't see her doing too well or keeping going much longer.

RM: Yeah , even her friend Sarah Palin was saying it's probably not her time.

WM: I don't think Rick Perry ever recovered from his debate performances. He was the flavor of the month until then, and people realized he probably wouldn't do so hot against Obama in the general. He'll probably just barely manage to get into double digits.

RM: Actually, he's been doing a little better on the ground in Iowa lately.

WM: Yeah, and he might actually pick up some delegates in the South and surprise people if he manages to keep going. But Iowa? I see him happy to get into double digits.

His Newtness is going to be lucky to hang on to fourth place. Face it, even among ReThugs he's just not a likeable guy, and his stuff about how he's the prospective nominee and how he gonna start arresting and subpoenaing judges...blecchh! Plus, like I said before, the Tea Party ain't gonna wrap their arms around him, assuming they have the cranial capacity to think about it. Ol' Newty's a major DC insider, and he's been hanging around K Street in DC land so long he probably has a sandwich named after him at some of the restaurants...tongue and baloney with cheesewhiz on white bread, yeah. He'll try and hang on until South Carolina, but essentially I think he's toast. Don't be surprised if Rick Perry or Rick Santorum take a lot of votes away from him there if they're still in it.

RM: OK, that leaves Ron Paul, Mitt Romney And Rick Santorum.

WM: Don't be surprised if Ron Paul wins. That weird, nutty old geezer is almost as much of a creature of DC land as Newty, but he's done a real good job of painting himself as an outsider. Plus, his supporters are exactly the kind of dedicated know nothing chimps who will run out into the snow to muscle the caucuses. I wouldn't be surprised not only to see him win, but to see him win big. That will dissipate after Iowa when we get to the real primaries, but yeah.

RM: I had a tip from a very reliable source that he's getting money and logistical support from the Obama campaign, with the idea of him running later as a third party to split Republican votes.

WM: Yeah, I saw that. Wouldn't surprise me....it may be the only way Obama could win.

Anyway, Rick Santorum...remember, Iowa is a small state, where you can practice retail politics the way you can't in bigger states where it takes more moolah to run. You can really reach out and touch the primates if you know what I mean hee hee!

Santorum's done that, mostly because he's been willing to run himself ragged like a baboon in heat all over Iowa and because the other not Romneys have flamed out. But he doesn't have much of an organization and he isn't going to be able to run on for long without one. He has hardly anything going in New Hampshire, for example. If he does good in Iowa, he might be able to collect enough bananas to keep going, otherwise this is going to be as far up the tree as he gets.

RM: Romney?

WM: The Robot has surprised me..beep beep! He's done pretty well simply by avoiding screwing up too bad, which is a talent I kinda envy, believe me. If he takes a second or even a third place finish in Iowa, the next stop is New Hampshire, where he will probably do pretty well. But it remains to be seen how well he does in the South.

RM: That's where I figure Rick Perry or Rick Santorum might start picking up some support.

WM: Yeah, if they can get it together enough to file to be on the ballot properly! Hee hee!

RM: OK, numbers Monkey.

WM: First off, any primate that puts shekels on something like the Iowa Caucus deserves to. I'm not that stupid. But if I was and somebody was to offer me Ron Paul and say five points or Romney and six or seven, I might go for it if I'd just fallen out of a tree and forgotten I don't make book on caucuses.

I think it's gonna be Ron Paul, Romney and Santorum in that order. If you're gonna pin me down, I see Paul getting high twenties to low thirties, Romney the Robot in the mid to high twenties and Santorum in the high teen to very low twenties. Plus or minus four.

RM: OK! We'll see if you're as good at this as you were in previous years.

WM: Later Rob. Smell ya later Primates!

Weekend Monkey was a Democratic candidate for president in 2008 and is JoshuaPundit's political Guru. He can be reached at wendmonkey@yahoo.com

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