Monday, July 14, 2014

A Ceasefire In Gaza? A Huge Mistake
News has surfaced of a proposal by the Egyptians to broker a ceasefire to end hostilities between Israel and Hamas. There are times when a ceasefire is advantageous. From Israel's standpoint, a ceasefire now is a strategic mistake of major proportions.

Essentially, the Egyptian proposal returns the status quo to the same place it was after Operation Pillar of Defense in 2012, AKA 'Quiet for Quiet'. It also includes a provision for Egypt is to convene with representatives of both Israel and Hamas separately or further negotiations 48 hours after the cease fire goes into effect. Even more ominously, there is a provision for a reopening of the border crossings on the Egyptian side, under Egyptian and Palestinian Authority control.

Does anyone trust forces belong to the Palestinian Authority to carry something like this out after their forces joined Hamas in firing rockets at Israel? After the attacks and riots carried out at the Palestinian Authority's orders in Israel?

That isn't the worst reason for Israel to engage in a ceasefire now.

Much has been made in certain quarters about Hamas' 'humiliation' at having none of its demands met. Don't believe it. Hamas and its groupies will spin this in a Tel Aviv minute. It will be Hamas who stood up to the Jews and whose rocket attacks caused Israel to beg for a ceasefire, Israel who was humiliated into leaving Hamas intact and in control of Gaza.

And that still isn't the worst reason  for Israel to engage in a ceasefire with Hamas at this time.

Hamas has never kept a ceasefire. They regard these intervals as a time to regroup, refurbish their arsenals and get ready for the next attempt at killing as many Israelis as they possibly can.And each time, their military capabilities increase. In their latest assault, for the first Hamas was able to reach central Israel. Israelis in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv finally have at least a clue as to what Israelis living in Sderot and the South have had to put up with since the Disengagement. Hamas not only revealed weaponized drones it received from Iran, but for the first time Hamas targeted Dimona, where Israel's nuclear facility is reportedly located. Had they been successful, the casualties would have been catastrophic..a real attempt at genocide as opposed to what Mahmoud Abbas is braying about, something inadvertently amusing from such a long time Holocaust denier.

This time, they failed. Is Israel willing to gamble on letting them have another try, after they've had time to increase their arsenal? Are the members of Israel's government now salivating to approve a ceasefire prepared to take the blame if there is a major strike by Hamas on Israel with multiple casualties in the near future, with Hamas perhaps shielded from retaliation by a nuclear armed Iran?

The only ceasefire Israel should approve should have two conditions; the complete demilitarization of Hamas supervised by the IDF and a demand that the 'international community', so unconcerned about the attacks directed at Israel for months and so exercised about Israel defending itself withdraw recognition and support of the Hamas-Fatah government.

Since that's unlikely to happen, Israel has ample grounds to reject what amounts to a respite for the genocidal Hamas in their quest to murder Jews. They need to be defeated utterly. It will not be easy or without cost, but Hamas cannot be left with a secure base in Gaza to continue attacking Israel.

A picture taken from the southern Israeli border with the Gaza Strip shows Israeli flares illuminating the Palestinian coastal enclave, on July 7, 2014. (photo credit: AFP/JACK GUEZ)

Anything less will simply set the stage for the next round, when Hamas may be stronger and conditions on the ground may not be anywhere near as favorable, with an Egyptian government hostile to Hamas and the West and the UN preoccupied with Iran and Iraq and Hezbollah enmeshed in Syria.

Real peace comes from victory. And there is no such thing as peace or accommodation with Amalek, or its latest incarnation.

Cross posted at the Times of Israel.


louielouie said...

ah crap.
and now this.
why it was just this morning, i thought egypt had turned the stupid corner.

Rob said...

Let's not forget that Egypt is subject to a certain amount of pressure from the usual suspects as well. Qatar,who supports Hamas is one of the countries now keeping Egypt afloat. Not to mention the $1.5 bil they get from Obama, also a Hamas groupie.

Let's see what happens, Hamas may not accept it in the end, or may add conditions Israel won't sign off on.

Or the Israelis may refuse the ceasefire.

We'll know tonight.

Anonymous said...

I really do not see how Israel can avoid taking Gaza, destroying Hamas, outlawing Fatah and its tributaries (and Hamas and its tributaries also).

Not saying its easy - Israel will have to dismantle schools and ban their press, and utterly demilitarize Gaza, but I am saying it is necessary.

I just can;t see any way to avoid it.

Rob said...

I don't think Israel needs to outlaw' Fatah - it is on the road to irrelevancy anyway. Nor do I see any reason to dismantle schools or ban the Arab press.

Far better, I think for Israel to delineate its own borders, (annex all of Area C, the Jordan Valley and certain strategic parts of Area A and B)give Abbas his little reichlet in part of Area A, annex Gaza, transfer most of its Arab population to Abbas land (perhaps with financial compensation) and repopulate Gaza with Jews.

Then remove any Jews outside those borders to Israel and repatriate any Arab non-citizens, again perhaps with compensation to 'Palestine.'

The Egyptians would certainly prefer that.

The relationship between Israel and those Arabs whom identify themselves as Palestinians needs to be akin to a divorce where the two parties are adversarial. A strict separation, with Israel in control and a clear understanding that any aggression, including lawfare will entail harsh consequences.

Let the Arabs whom call themselves Palestinians find their own destiny, and Israel will pursue theirs.