Thursday, February 18, 2010

A New War In The Falklands?

Britain and Argentina may be setting up for a rematch of a old war over the Falkland Islands, a British territory in the South Atlantic that Argentina claims for itself as the Malvinas Islands.

Back in 1982, Argentina invaded the Falklands and a UK naval taskforce seized back control in a short but intense war that resulted in the death 649 Argentine and 255 British service personnel.

What's happened since then is oil, baby.According to geological surveys, the seabed around the Falklands has substantial oil reserves and both Britain and Argentina want them.

On Tuesday, President Cristina Fernandez signed a decree requiring any vessels traveling between Argentina and the islands, or crossing Argentine territorial waters en route to the Falklands to do so only with Argentina's prior permission.They've already detained several ships.

Argentina has also submitted a claim to the UN claiming a huge expanse of teritorial waters ( and sea bed, of course) stretching to the Antarctic and including the Falklands.

The Brits reaction has been measured so far, with Gordon Brown saying that th eissue can be resolved diplomatically.

The Brits had better hope so.Some things have changed since the last Falklands War.

Aside from the fact that the UK had Margaret Thatcher in charge rather than the current leadership,the British Fleet has been downgraded considerably by a long period of Labour government and some analysts quietly doubt whether Britain has the offensive capabilities to put together and support a task force that far from home nowadays.

Another point is the UK's relationship with the US. In 1982, PM Thatcher and President Reagan enjoyed an extremely close personal friendship as well as an appreaciation of the two countries' long alliance.

During the original Falklands campaign, the US seriously bent its existing defense treaty with Argentina as well as the Monroe Doctrine to provide the Brits with what President Reagan called 'all aid short of war'. The US provided vital refueling support of the Royal Navy's task force that enabled it to reach the Islands, satellite imagery that made a huge difference when Vulcan and Victor force touched down on Ascension Island.

Nowadays, with Obama is office, the US/UK relationship is very different and I doubt that the kind of aid the Brits got from America would be forthcoming. As a matter f fact, since it's Barack Obama, probably just the reverse.

We'll see what develops.

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louielouie said...

it's bush's fault.

B.Poster said...

A new war in the Faulklands? What do the British plan to use to fight it with since they have allowed their military capabilities to diminish over the years? It was almost all they could handle last time. Also, even if the Americans were willing to help as before, what are the Americans going to use? All of our stuff is busy elsewhere right now.

Beisdes I don't envision the American or British public having the stomach for another military conflict right now. What is the Monroe Doctrine any way? Clearly it is not worth the paper it is printed on. With the inroads made by Russia and China in places like Venezuela and Panama they are the most influential countries in South and Central America not the United States.

yzernik said...

I personally will be rooting for Argentina if there is a war. I am completely sick of the UK and their illegal occupation(s).

Protocole Odessa said...

Go Britian!

Tell the Argis that 'Proximity' does not mean 'Sovereignty'!

Wooooooooo! Boom Boom Boom!

Falklands War!

True Brit said...

That oil is black gold!!!!!!! We need it. Screw the Argentines. We will take it and if they try to stop us we will have a war. and we will win again !!!!!!!!!

Paul McElroy said...

As an American, I apologize to our British cousins if the idiot in office doesn't support you in this. And to rebut "M" - the UK claiming sovereignty of the Falklands is not illegal. The influence of China and Russia also needs to be stemmed in the South Americas; losing the Falklands will be a big blow for capitalism as the influence of socialism spreads further and further. Not something one should look forward to.

Anonymous said...

The islands are argentinian,Argentina was the first nation that ocupped the islands,the british pirates cames 100 years later and usurped the territory,read the history gringos assholes.

Anonymous said...

The author failed to take into account that time has not been kind with Argentines armed forces; what’s more, it’s been worse for the Argentine. They have suffered crippling military cuts, especially their navy, add to the fact training have been severally affected & no longer in par with the brits.

The British already have a significant deterrence force already in the islands, Fighter Typhoon, Tornados attack craft & a 1000+ royal marines veterans of 2 recent wars, submarines armed with antis hip missiles and land attack cruise missiles, and a couple of destroyers; plus surveillance post for early warning, assets the brits didn’t have in 1982

Argentine allies only support it can offer to Argentine is cheering them, Venezuela cannot intercept since any approach British fleet can steam out of range of what few attack craft Hugo Chavez posses. The only support Chavez can offer is basing them on Argentine, inviting direct attack by cruise missiles. Brazil has a carrier but it would be facing of with a unsinkable British carrier, the Falkland Islands themselves.

The British are on their way in modernizing their fleet plus the soon commissioning of their 1st tru carriers. Then what can the Argentines do about it?

Anonymous said...

Find it interesting the rig is called 'Ocean Gaurdian' and chronology of BP spill gulf .Just as some say war in Lybia Tusania Egypt engineered to make up losses from gulf disaster.Interesting posturing oil industry falkland to current break up of Sudan.higher order of things maybe?

Anonymous said...

@ "Anonymous said...
The islands are argentinian,Argentina was the first nation that ocupped the islands,the british pirates cames 100 years later and usurped the territory,read the history gringos assholes"

Something this person clearly hasnt done the islands were first settled by the french in one part and the british in another upto that point they were uninhabited. If we then fast forward to the 1960`s and 70`s the British had established links with Argentina with an air service etc etc. However the Argentinians basically persecuted the islanders. They made them carry identity cards and even attempted to make them join their army until the British put a stop to it. Then they decided to simply invade instead ending all negotiations in 82.
They are the facts like it or not and they created the situation that exists today. Or are you going to deny that you invaded the Falklands with the loss of hundreds of lives.

Rob said...


One might also consider the simple fact that the inhabitants of the Islanders themselves overwhelmingly want to remain British.