Thursday, August 09, 2012
CNN/ORC's Joke Poll....17% Weighted In Favor Of Democrats!!
As you remember, we've discussed some of the polls out there before from 'reputable' news sources.It's gotten to the point that outlets like Washington Post aren't even revealing their mechanics ( demographics and political affiliation of who was polled) anymore, so no one can tell exactly how skewed and biased the sampling is.
Here's CNN's headline: CNN Poll; Obama Holds 7 Point Lead Over Romney.
Sounds pretty daunting, no?
CNN/ORC don't give you their mechanics either, but they did leave one little clue in the PDF of the responses to individual questions that easily allows you to to extrapolate the oversample of Democrats...once you do the math.
The PDF shows they reportedly polled '1,010 adult Americans' with a margin of error of ' plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.'
Not registered voters, not likely voters, just 'adults'.
Nowhere does it give you any idea of the party affiliation of these adults...until you get to question number 23, which was limited to '419 Republicans or republican leaning independents' because it concerned Romney's possible VP pick.
So, let's do some math!
Obviously, if they asked only Republicans or independents leaning Republican about a question on a possible GOP running mate, it's because that's how many Republicans or leaners there were in the entire sample. No other explanation makes any sense.
So..419 amounts to about 41.5 % of the entire sample.
Subtract 419 from 1010 and you get 591 people who aren't Republicans or independents leaning Republican..or in other words, Democrats or independents leaning Democrat. They made up 58.5% of the sample, almost two thirds.
Subtract the Democrat percentage of the sampling from the Republican percentage and you come up with...a 17% oversampling of Democrats and Independents leaning Democrat.
Any wonder this 'poll' shows President Obama leading by 7 points?
Meanwhile Rasmussen, who uses likely voters show Romney up by 4 points, 47% to 43%, just to provide a second opinion on these matters.
The whole idea of these joke 'polls' like CNN's is the same as the notoriously skewed exit polls..to try and depress turnout and enthusiasm among Republican voters.
It's sad to see once reputable news organization bend over in this fashion, but it is what it is.
In reality, the race is pretty much even at this point with an edge to Romney based on President Obama's abysmal record in office.
People already know what they think of Barack Obama..now, they're deciding what they think of Mitt Romney, and his VP pick, hisconvention speech and his debate performance are going to seal the deal..or not.
It's his race to lose.