Friday, February 02, 2007

National Intelligence Estimate for Iraq report refers to Iraq `civil war'

Today, a US intel report presented to the White House sort of underlined a few truths that the Bush Administration has been in denial over for some time. Among other things it said that the term ``civil war'' accurately describes elements of the Iraq conflict.

Well, I'm glad we finally got that straightened out, 4+ years in. Though I think `primitive tribal conflict' would be even more accurate. Leaves out the `civil' part of civil war, you see.

According to the report, a political reconciliation will be difficult because of what the report called deep-rooted sectarian conflicts and a widespread "winner-take-all attitude".

"Iraqi society's growing polarization, the persistent weakness of the security forces and the state in general, and all sides' ready recourse to violence are collectively driving an increase in communal and insurgent violence and political extremism," the National Intelligence Estimate for Iraq said.

The report characterized the Shiites as "deeply insecure about their hold on power" because of their former domination by the Sunnis...and the Sunnis as being unwilling to accept minority status.

What the report doesn't say is that the Shiite government we put into power is involved in ethnically cleansing the Sunnis out of Iraq, or at least out of the areas they want to control. I guess that's part of that `winner take all ' attitude.

The report said that those vaunted Iraqi Security Forces we've spent so much money arming and training will find it difficult to take over for US troops because they are subject to the same sectarian divisions that are the cause of the violence. (no, really?!!)

Equally important, "the absence of unifying leaders among the Arab Sunni or Shia with the capacity to speak for or exert control over their confessional groups limits prospects for reconciliation," the report concludes.

In other words, sheer tribalism at work..with our troops in the middle of it all.

The Intel Estimate is a report prepared by the office of the Director of National Intelligence, which oversees the USA's 16 spy and security agencies. The whole enchilada was a classified, 60-page report for the White House and members of Congress. The quotes here come from a nine-page unclassified report released to the general public.

The president's NSA adviser, Stephen Hadley called the review a "tough look at Iraq" that "explains why the president concluded that a new strategy was required."

Excuse me if I don't consider a troop surge that depends on the Shiite government in Iraq getting its act together a `new strategy.' Especially if, as the president likes to say, `our goal is a stable, democratic Iraq that will be our ally in the war on terror.'

The Shiite government in Iraq we allowed to take power is made up of people who get funding from and are allied our enemy Iran. It might end up being stable someday, but it won't be `democratic' or an ally in the War on Jihad.

Of course,if our goal was a stable, democratic ally in the war on jihad, we would take the Kurds up on their offer, redeploy out troops in their country and ally ourselves with them to build a strong, independent Kurdistan.

But that's not what the game's about, is it?

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